五矿期货-能源化工期权日报-230111

>> 五矿期货-能源化工期权日报-230111

上传日期：	2023/1/12	大小：	1495KB
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研究报告全文：能源化工期权日报期权研究2023年1月11日星期三基本面信息橡胶截至2023年1月6日上期所天然橡胶库存18674442吨仓单1697004690吨20号胶库存34000302吨仓单29011-202吨甲醇上游开工7385环比-173库存方面港口卸货速度好转提货缩减港口库存总量报7166万吨环比96万吨企业库存环比-204万吨报4947万吨同比偏高PTAPTA部分装置重启市场供应有所回升终端织造需求加速回落PTA季节性累库但加工费压缩低位卢品先油价反弹支撑成本PVC基本面PVC供应增加近期出口表现较好但短期内需减弱社会库存增加PVC上涨空间有限投研经理聚丙烯2022年12月份国内聚丙烯装置检修损失量为3205万吨较上月增加620万吨增幅为24较去年同0755-23375252期2021年12月2605万吨增加6万吨增幅为23lupxwkjyqhcom期权分析及操作建议从业资格号1橡胶期权F3047321橡胶上周突破前两周的震荡区间上限而后冲高逐渐回落偏弱势下跌涨幅035报收于12940期权隐含波动交易咨询号率下降004报收于2260持仓量PCR维持低位报收于069操作建议沪胶上周大幅上涨突破近两周以来矩形区Z0015541间上限而后上升受阻回落围绕着20天均线窄幅波动橡胶期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建卖方期权的动态DELTA中性组合策略获取时间价值收益根据市场行情变化动态地调整持仓DELTA使得持仓保持中性若市场行情急速大涨或大跌持仓将面临大亏损则平仓离场如RU2305期权SRU2305C1325010SRU2305C1300010和SRU2305P1300010SRU2305P12750102甲醇期权甲醇MA303两个月以来沿着偏多头趋势方向波浪形上涨上周以来冲高回落止跌于21天均线反弹回升涨幅054报收于2624期权隐含波动率下降030报收于2319持仓量PCR小幅上升报收于090操作建议甲醇形成短期弱势偏空头中期趋势偏多头的市场行情形态且20天均线和60天均线斜率为正数甲醇期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR窄幅盘整构建卖出偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如MA2303期权SMA2303C265010SMA2303C270010和STMA2303P255010SMA2303P2600103PTA期权PTATA303低位反弹V型反转回暖上升延续近三周以来的偏多头上涨行情上周以来高位盘整震荡而后连续报收大阴线大幅下跌而后低位弱势区间盘整涨幅011报收于5288期权隐含波动率小幅上升015报收于2444持仓量PCR窄幅波动报收于081操作建议PTA形成区间弱势盘整震荡的市场行情格局PTA期权隐含波动率小幅上升持仓量PCR窄幅波动维持至较低水平构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如TA2303期权STA2303C540010STA2303C530010和STA2303P520010STA2303P5100104塑料期权塑料L2305延续一个半月以来的震荡上行温和上涨趋势而后两周以来围绕20天均线附近大幅波动上周以来低位窄幅区间盘整震荡涨幅030报收于7994期权隐含波动率下降023报收于1827持仓量PCR快速下降报收于101操作上建议塑料空头压力线下窄幅区间盘整震荡下有55天均线支撑上有前期高点和21天均线压力塑料期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR维持在100以上构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则平仓离场如L2305期权SL2305-C-800010SL2305-C-810010和SL2305-P-790010SL2305-P-8000105聚丙烯期权聚丙烯前一周上升受阻回落上周以来逐渐转为弱势下行趋势先后跌破21天均线和55天均线跌幅007报收于7629期权隐含波动率下降009报收于1800持仓量PC小幅上升报收于126操作上建议聚丙烯逐渐形成市场偏空头的行情走势中期趋势斜率为负值且连续下跌后跌破近期低点整体来看聚丙烯短期走势偏向弱势下行期权隐含波动率小幅度下降持仓量PCR有所下降仍维持在较高水平构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如PP2305SPP2305-C-770010SPP2305-C-780010和PP2305-P-750010SPP2305-P-7600106PVC期权PVC维持近一个月以来的宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡跌幅006报收于6361期权隐含波动率下降010报收于2320持仓量PCR持续下降报收于062操作上建议PVC维持宽幅矩形区间震荡行情格局PVC期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建卖出看涨看跌宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如V2305期权SV2305-C-640010SV2305-C-650010和SV2305-P-630010SV2305-P-620010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿RURU230512940004500035200125805MAMA2303262400140005416964426PTATA230352880060001122836029LPGPG230342150034000814763982LL23057994002400030345113751PPPP2305762900-500-007395015079PVCV2305636100-400-0061020532481数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日RU23051300055700610001294746000367001042023-04-24MA230326006900430026262750106200242023-02-03TA23035300108001200052881400027000242023-02-03PG23034200133001248042088760213-680282023-02-07L2305800027000289007981-3050-038-1300902023-04-10PP230576002820022900765315500202400902023-04-10V2305640025750291006367-100-002550902023-04-10数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWRU2305236019742260004215422502057MA2303231223282319-030221723552078TA2303239924882444015231025152104PG23033186312631621025289731192676L2305182118341827-023187619061845PP2305184517581800-009183118621800V2305239821942320-010244425342355数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化RU230581092839035-0092297615751069-001MA23037849567178086-0193817334600091005TA2303112645115573103-0167105757450081001PG23038654563306504657553467060015L23057973640608000363056391101-013PP23053574392011003769178711126009V2305900655410620072615816207062-001数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1橡胶主力合约走势图14000成交量万7013500收盘价6012920005013000401250030120002011500101100002022-08-312022-09-142022-12-272023-01-102022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-09-052022-09-082022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-302023-01-05图2甲醇主力合约走势图2900成交量万3002800收盘价2700262400225260015025002400752300220002022-07-122022-11-102023-01-052022-07-072022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-10图3PTA主力合约走势图6500320成交量万收盘价60002405500531000160500080450002022-07-152022-11-102022-12-192022-07-072022-07-122022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-10标的价量关系图4LPG主力合约走势图600025成交量万收盘价2055001550004448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