上周PVC上游库存累库1.2万吨至48.6万吨，同比增加293%，上游预售增加2.9万吨至65.9万吨。社会库存累库1.77万吨至25.7万吨，同比增加65%，库存压力大。
　　

研究报告全文：银河期货PVC周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年01月09日银河能化微信公众号概述项目基本面及变化上周PVC上游库存累库12万吨至486万吨同比增加293上游预售增加29万吨至659万吨社会库存累库177万吨至257万吨同比增加库存65库存压力大2022年12月PVC产量17885万吨环比增加89同比下降372022年PVC产量2199万吨同比下降083上周PVC开工环比上升2个百分产量点至7794其中电石法开工环比上升2个百分点765乙烯法开工环比上升19个百分点至8311电石上周电石利润上升100元吨至69元吨电石开工率环比下降09个百分点至7031兰炭上周兰炭价格持稳1555元吨兰炭利润持稳-269元吨兰炭开工持稳562311月PVC粉出口845万吨环比下降126同比下降264累计同比增长17811月PVC进口42万吨环比增加429同比增加198累计同比下降2323进出口2023年1月4日台塑公布2月预售报价环比上涨70-90美元吨CFR印度930美元吨FOB至东南亚875美元吨FOB东北亚至越南840美元吨上周PVC生产企业对外出口签单环比减少至18万吨待交付量增至218万吨货源交付量在1万吨出口价格略有走低在805-850美元吨FOB实单商谈外盘价格上周外盘价格稳中有涨东南亚价格上涨60美元吨至880美元吨印度价格上涨30美元吨至930美元吨其他价格基本持稳11月PVC消费1664万吨环比下降6同比下降199累计同比下降3需求11月PVC地板出口3428万吨环比增加479同比下降2559累计同比下降93上周下游制品企业开工率在3496环比减少313同比减少492型材开机率在2813环比减少313同比减少413电石利润上升100元吨至69元吨兰炭利润持稳-269元吨山东外购电石法利润上升70元吨至-1026元吨一体化利润下降18元吨至-715成本利润元吨期现价差上周五PVC在地产利多信息下大幅上涨主力合约周度收涨198现货周度收涨081主力基差走弱74至05-167PVC现实较弱首先是库存高企上游库存同比增加293社会库存同比增加65库存压力仍大而且库存面临季节性累库开工环比提升观点需求在春节前环比走弱但地产端的预期仍在且总有利好信息预期较好短期价格震荡GALAXYFUTURES1期现价差PVC05季节性PVC05PVC常州SG-5合约持仓量130001600080012000140001100070060010000120009000500100008000400700030080006000200600050001004000004000520620720820920102011201220120220320420112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121PVC1705PVC1805PVC1905PVC2005201420152016201720182017201820192020PVC2105PVC2205PVC230520192020202120222023202120222023PVC05基差PVC5-9价差30008002500600200040015002001000500002001334435350022920114124118217319418105111912195206207208209201020112012201202203204201020PVC1905-PVC1909PVC2005-PVC2009PVC2105-PVC2109PVC1905PVC2005PVC2105PVC2205PVC2305PVC2205-PVC2209PVC2305-PVC2309资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES2利润兰炭利润电石利润西北外购电石PVC生产利润1400300030001200250020001000200080010006001500400100002005000-1000-2000-2000-400-500-600-1000-3000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820192015201620172018201920152016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023西北自产电石法生产利润山东外购电石法PVC生产利润山东氯碱一体化利润4000300040003000200030002000100020001000010000-10000-1000-2000-1000-2000-3000-2000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820192015201620172018201920152016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES3利润华东进口乙烯法PVC生产利润华东进口VCM法生产利润PVC出口东南亚利润电石法10000600050090005000400800040003007000300020060002000100500010000400003000-1002000-1000-2001000-2000-3000-3000-400-1000-4000-50011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120152016201720182019201520162017201820192016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES4库存PVC上游库存PVC上游预售PVC仓单700080120060007010005000608005060040004040030003020020002000010001011213141516171819110111112100002011201220132014201511213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120162017201820192020201920202021202220232020202120222023202120222023PVC社会库存华东华南卓创PVC华东社会库存卓创PVC华南社会库存卓创50003500180045003000160040001400350025001200300020001000250080020001500600150010001000400500500200000000000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201420152016201720182014201520162017201820142015201620172018201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES5PVC新增产能PVC2022-2023年新装置企业产能工艺投产时间内蒙宜化5电石法2022年1月天津大沽80乙烯法2022年1月40万吨4月40万吨德州实华20姜钟法2022年5月青岛海湾20乙烯法2022年9月聚隆化工40乙烯法2022年6月29日投产11月有量销售广西华谊氯碱化工40乙烯法2022年11月27日后试车山东信发40电石法2022年11月21日试车2022年合计245金泰化学30电石法2023年6月试车万华化学福建一期40乙烯法2023年年中试车镇洋发展30乙烯法2023年下半年2023年合计100资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES6产量开工PVC产量季节性PVC粉开工率电石法PVC粉开工率21090009500200900085001908500180800017080007500160750015070007000140650065001301206000600012345678910111211213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120142015201620172018201720182019202020172018201920202019202020212022202120222023202120222023乙烯法PVC粉开工率电石开工与PVC开工率95009509000900850085080008007500750700070065006506000600550055050001121314151617181911011111212020352020552020952021152021352021552021752022152022352022752023152020752021952022552022952021115202211520172018201920202020115202120222023电石开工率电石法PVC开工率资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES7分项开工资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES8电石乌海电石山东电石90009000800080007000700060006000500050004000400030003000200020001000100001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212016201720182019201620172018201920202021202220232020202120222023电石利润电石开工率卓创300095025009002000850150080010007505007000650600-500550-100011213141516171819110111112150011213141516171819110111112120152016201720182019201920202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES9兰炭兰炭市场价中料神木精煤块价格38501800335016001400285012002350100018508001350600400850200350011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120162017201820192015201620172018201920202021202220232020202120222023兰炭利润兰炭开工率1400070120006510000608000556000504002000450040-200035-400030-6000251121314151617181911011111210202015201620172018201911213141516171819110111112120202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES10外盘PVC外盘投产PVC外盘价格企业国家产能工艺投产时间2400韩华韩国13乙烯法2020年Q12200Engro巴基斯坦10乙烯法2020年Q3信越美国29乙烯法2020年2000Inovyn欧洲20乙烯法2020年1800Inovyn欧洲12乙烯法2020年1600Shintech美国29乙烯法2020年14002020年合计1131200台塑美国14乙烯法2021年年底10002021年合计14800Sulfindo印尼265乙烯法2022年上半年600已于2022年3月份启动Anyer新增的年产20Asahimas印尼20乙烯法万吨PVC工厂外采氯乙烯EGA阿联酋20乙烯法2022年2021112021212021312021412021512021612021712021812021912022112022212022312022412022512022612022712022812022912023112021101202111120211212022101202211120221212022年合计665西北欧离岸价东南亚CFR中国CFR美国海湾FAS印度CFR资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES11台塑预售报价台塑-CFR印度台塑-CFR中国20001800180016001600140014001200120010001000800800600600010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023台塑-FOB东北亚至东南亚台塑-FOB东北亚至越南1800180016001600140014001200120010001000800800600600010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES12进出口PVC出口季节性PVC净进口季节性3052028272551022222050418715514-101010813151051111111910-20228252455-3012345678910111205123456789101112201420152016201720182017201820192020202120222019202020212022PVC进口季节性PVC出口东南亚利润电石法20500184001630014200121001008-1006-2004-3002-4000-50012345678910111211213141516171819110111112120142015201620172018201620172018201920192020202120222020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES13需求PVC需求季节性200190180170160150140130120123456789101112201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES14制品出口PVC铺地制品出口PVC制品出口PVC铺地制品-出口至美国60007000400035005000600030005000400025004000300020003000150020002000100010001000500000000000123456789101112123456789101112123456789101112201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES15房地产房地产数据1200030大中城市商品房成交面积当周值30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值一线城市100007001808000160600060014040005002000120000400100-200080300-400060-600020040100202016-062019-062022-062014-022014-062014-102015-022015-062015-102016-022016-102017-022017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-02商品房销售面积累计同比房屋新开工面积累计同比00112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121房屋竣工面积累计同比本年购置土地面积累计同比20172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023房屋施工面积累计同比30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值二线城市30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值三线城市40025035020030025015020010015010050500011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES16周琴能化投资研究部从业资格号F3076447投资咨询从业证书号Z0015943电话021-65789376电邮zhouqinqhchinastockcomcn上海市虹口区东大名路501号上海白玉兰广场28层28thFloorNo501DongDaMingRoadSinarMasPlazaHongkouDistrictShanghaiChina全国统一客服热线400-886-7799公司网址wwwyhqhcomcn银河期货微信公众号下载银河期货APP