铜：年前最后一周铜价震荡运行，伦铜微跌0.05%至8374美元/吨，沪铜主力收至66260元/吨。产业层面，年前当周三大交易所库存增加2.2万吨，其中上期所库存增加1.5至6.9万吨，LME库存增加0.7至8.9万吨，COMEX库存微降至3.2万吨。上海保税区库存回升0.5万吨，当周国内进口亏损环比扩大，洋山铜溢价延续回落，进口清关需求不佳。现货方面，年前当周LME市场Cash/3M贴水缩窄至7.2美元/吨；国内上海地区现货走弱，周五现货升水下调至30元/吨。废铜方面，上周国内精废价差缩窄至1210元/吨，废铜替代优势降低。消息面，智利国家统计局公布的数据显示，该国11月铜产量为45.9万吨，较去年同期减少5.5%，环比10月份产量减少3.7%。价格层面，中国短期内完成大规模感染强化了经济恢复预期，需求有望逐渐改善，不过随着春节临近，铜供需较难明显走强。海外通胀预期有所回升，但上方仍面临压力。预计短期铜价延续震荡，本周沪铜主力运行区间参考：65000-66800元/吨。
　　

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230103铜年前最后一周铜价震荡运行伦铜微跌005至8374美元吨沪铜主力收至66260元吨产业层面年前当周三大交易所库存增加22万吨其中上期所库存增加15至69万吨LME库存增加07至89万吨COMEX库存微降至32万吨上海保税区库存回升05万吨当周国内进口亏损环比扩大洋山铜溢价延续回落进口清关需求不佳现货方面年前当周LME市场Cash3M贴水有色金属小组缩窄至72美元吨国内上海地区现货走弱周五现货升水下调至30元吨废铜方面上周国内精废价差缩窄至1210元吨废铜替代优势降低消息面智利国家统计局公布的数据显示吴坤金该国11月铜产量为459万吨较去年同期减少55环比10月份产量减少37价格层面中国从业资格号F3036210短期内完成大规模感染强化了经济恢复预期需求有望逐渐改善不过随着春节临近铜供需较交易咨询号Z0015924难明显走强海外通胀预期有所回升但上方仍面临压力预计短期铜价延续震荡本周沪铜主0755-23375135力运行区间参考65000-66800元吨wkjwkqhcn铝国内受疫情影响消费走弱2022年12月29日SMM统计国内电解铝社会库存493万吨较上王震宇周四库存增加18万吨较11月底库存下降23万吨较去年同期库存下降306万吨电解铝库存从业资格号F3082524停止去库转为累库临近年末下游厂商订单普遍下滑预计后续国内市场将整体转为累库形0755-23375132势后续预计铝价将维持震荡走势国内参考运行区间18300-19000海外参考运行区间wangzywkqhcn2200美元-2600美元钟靖从业资格号F30352670755-23375125zhongjwkqhcn锡受国内经济复苏预期影响锡价持续上涨重回20W以上但随着后续临近春节元旦下游生产订单逐渐走弱短期内需求端难以对走高的价格形成支撑强预期弱现实后续锡价预计将维持震荡偏强走势锡价主力合约参考运行区间200000-220000海外LME-3M锡参考运行区间24000美元-26000美元镍截至上周五LME镍库存周增1200吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格周涨04沪镍主力合约周涨666国内基本面方面周五现货价格报237500242000元吨俄镍现货对01合约升水降至5000元吨金川镍现货升水降至6500元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口亏损缩窄弱需求现实国内供应呈过剩趋势库存方面上期所库存增37吨我的有色网保税区库存降500吨镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持增长趋势综合来看淡季和疫情等不利因素或继续影响短期镍铁和精炼镍需求不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存继续累库供需双弱现实和节后经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内宏观政策利好和淡季产业链需求转弱对原料价格影响博弈中期关注印尼新能源原料新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000230000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年1月2日日频数据2023年1月3日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜860254625124751450850545697899287722589403664198617030791791793181铝45337583502520255559297595539756532741275135411153502055793781824734锌3382525001887555802825181732845427016833240042201258018008401192铅2515015011100441443004194253832964211881446273173180606746958634405镍55092864526295518200245910421145014844319892023年1月2日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期69709USDCNY即期697301个月美元LIBOR438363个月美元LIBOR472992023年1月3日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-032022-052022-072021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-062022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价2500002000065005300009000048000055008000020000015000430000450070000380000100001500003500330000600005000250028000050000100000230000150040000018000050030000500001300005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-082021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价25000007035000035044003000003006039002000000250250000502003400150000020000015040150000100290010000003050100000240020050000500000-501900100-1000050000-15014002021-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002022-082022-112021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-092022-102022-12SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002022-082022-112021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-092022-102022-12SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002000020017000180000160000150001600020000010014000010000150000120000150000500014000100000-10010000001300080000-20060000500012000500004000010000-3001100020000015000-4001000002021-102021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价570003000006010000200052000800047000250000501500600042000100020000040400037000200050032000150000300270000200022000100000204000-500170006000120005000010-1000800070000010000-15002021-112022-062021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90040009001000200008508500-1000800-2000800-2000-4000750-3000750-6000-4000700-8000-5000700650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价95020001050010001000900-10000950-1000850900-2000-2000850800-3000-3000800-4000750750-4000-5000-6000700700-5000-7000650650-8000600-60002021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12