铜：美元指数下跌，库存回升使得铜价走势偏弱，昨日铜价震荡微涨，伦铜收涨0.08%至8430美元/吨，沪铜主力收至66070元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存增加4625至86025吨，增量全部来自欧洲仓库，注销仓单占比降低，Cash/3M贴水8.5美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上海地区现货贴水缩至110元/吨，临近年底市场成交依然静淡。进出口方面，昨日国内铜现货进口亏损缩至600元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价下滑。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1240元/吨，废铜替代优势微降。价格层面，美国三季度GDP数据好于预期，美联储鹰派政策预期延续，海外通胀预期仍面临压力。当前国内现实偏弱，供需均受到疫情影响，如果疫情未见好转，短期需求可能进一步走弱，铜价重心或有所回落。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：65500-66400元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20221230铜美元指数下跌库存回升使得铜价走势偏弱昨日铜价震荡微涨伦铜收涨008至8430美元吨沪铜主力收至66070元吨产业层面昨日LME库存增加4625至86025吨增量全部来自欧洲仓库注销仓单占比降低Cash3M贴水85美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货贴水缩至110元吨临近年底市场成交依然静淡进出口方面昨日国内铜现货进口亏损缩至600元吨有色金属小组左右洋山铜溢价下滑废铜方面昨日国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1240元吨废铜替代优势微降价格层面美国三季度GDP数据好于预期美联储鹰派政策预期延续海外通胀预期仍面临吴坤金压力当前国内现实偏弱供需均受到疫情影响如果疫情未见好转短期需求可能进一步走从业资格号F3036210弱铜价重心或有所回落今日沪铜主力运行区间参考65500-66400元吨交易咨询号Z00159240755-23375135wkjwkqhcn铝沪铝主力合约报收18725元吨截止昨日下午三点跌幅045SMM现货A00铝报均价王震宇18700元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-20铝期货仓单32741吨较前一日减少2751吨LME铝库存从业资格号F3082524453375吨减少8350吨截至12月29日国内电解铝社会库存493万吨较上周四库存增加180755-23375132万吨沪铝连续累库下游消费疲软根据海关总署最新数据显示2022年11月未锻轧铝及铝材wangzywkqhcn出口量约为4556万吨环比减少494同比减少10552022年1-11月未锻轧铝及铝材出口量6132万吨同比去年1-11月增长213印尼宣布将从2023年6月起禁止铝土矿出口预计将对国内铝土矿供应产生一定冲击沪铝预计震荡运行主力合约参考运行区间18300-18900钟靖从业资格号F30352670755-23375125zhongjwkqhcn锡沪锡主力合约报收207690元吨下跌076截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单上升167吨现为4397吨LME库存减少10吨现为2920吨长江有色锡1的平均价为205500元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收189250元吨根据中国海关公布的数据以及安泰科的折算2022年11月我国锡精矿进口实物量26552吨折金属量55430吨环比上涨1114同比上涨282精锡进口量为5174吨环比上涨473同比增长4093沪锡震荡偏强行情预计延续主力参考运行区间200000-212000镍周四LME镍库存增864吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格跌128沪镍主力合约涨028国内基本面方面周四现货价格报233000238300元吨俄镍现货对01合约升水降至6250元吨金川镍现货升水降至7500元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口亏损缩窄弱需求现实国内供应呈过剩趋势镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持增长趋势综合来看淡季和疫情等不利因素或继续影响短期镍铁和精炼镍基本面不锈钢需求方面本周无锡佛山社会库存继续累库供需双弱现实和节后经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内宏观政策利好和淡季产业链需求转弱对原料价格影响博弈中期关注印尼新能源原料新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000230000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2022年12月29日日频数据2022年12月30日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜860254625124751450850545697899287722589403664198617030784784793812铝45337583502520255559297595539756532741275135411153502055785773824935锌3382525001887555802825181732845427016833240042201257957948401374铅2515015011100441443004194253832964211881446273173180606817028634233镍55092864526295518200245910421145014844319892022年12月29日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期69709USDCNY即期697301个月美元LIBOR438363个月美元LIBOR472992022年12月30日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-032022-052022-072021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-062022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价2500002000065005300009000048000055008000020000015000430000450070000380000100001500003500330000600005000250028000050000100000230000150040000018000050030000500001300005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-082021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价25000007035000035044003000003006039002000000250250000502003400150000020000015040150000100290010000003050100000240020050000500000-501900100-1000050000-15014002021-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002022-082022-112021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-092022-102022-12SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002022-082022-112021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-092022-102022-12SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002000020017000180000160000150001600020000010014000010000150000120000150000500014000100000-10010000001300080000-20060000500012000500004000010000-3001100020000015000-4001000002021-102021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价570003000006010000200052000800047000250000501500600042000100020000040400037000200050032000150000300270000200022000100000204000-500170006000120005000010-1000800070000010000-15002021-112022-062021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90040009001000200008508500-1000800-2000800-2000-4000750-3000750-6000-4000700-8000-5000700650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价95020001050010001000900-10000950-1000850900-2000-2000850800-3000-3000800-4000750750-4000-5000-6000700700-5000-7000650650-8000600-60002021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12