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>> 五矿期货-金属期权日报-221228
上传日期:   2022/12/28 大小:   1200KB
格式:   pdf  共10页 来源:   五矿期货
评级:   -- 作者:   卢品先
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【基本面信息】
  铜:产业层面,昨日上期所铜仓单数量增加455至25804吨,临近年底持货商换现意愿较强,上海地区现货由升水转为贴水30元/吨。废铜方面,昨日国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1360元/吨,废铜替代优势降低。
  铝:SMM现货A00铝报均价19060元/吨。A00铝锭升贴水平均价10。铝期货仓单35592吨,较前一日下降0吨。截至12月26日,国内电解铝社会库存48.4万吨。
  黄金:COMEX金涨0.98%,报1821.8美元/盎司,COMEX银涨1.34%,报24.24美元/盎司;10年期国债收益率报3.849%,美元指数涨0.04%,报104.24。
  铁矿石:铁矿石现货市场成交活跃度不高,钢厂询盘情况一般,PB粉价格较昨日上涨5-10元/吨。本周海外发运和到港量较上周均下降,巴西地区开始逐渐受预计影响,发货走弱。
  
研究报告全文:金属期权日报期权研究2022年12月28日星期三基本面信息铜产业层面昨日上期所铜仓单数量增加455至25804吨临近年底持货商换现意愿较强上海地区现货由升水转为贴水30元吨废铜方面昨日国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1360元吨废铜替代优势降低铝SMM现货A00铝报均价19060元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价10铝期货仓单35592吨较前一日下降0吨截至12月26日国内电解铝社会库存484万吨黄金COMEX金涨098报18218美元盎司COMEX银涨134报2424美元盎司10年期国债收卢品先益率报3849美元指数涨004报10424投研经理铁矿石铁矿石现货市场成交活跃度不高钢厂询盘情况一般PB粉价格较昨日上涨5-10元吨本0755-23375252周海外发运和到港量较上周均下降巴西地区开始逐渐受预计影响发货走弱lupxwkjyqhcom期权分析及操作建议从业资格号1铜期权F3047321沪铜上周高位回落后止跌与60天均线反弹回暖上升本周以来延续多头上涨趋势涨幅063报收于交易咨询号66750期权隐含波动率下降113报收于1676持仓量PCR大幅下降维持在高位水平报收于186操作Z0015541建议沪铜沿着偏多头趋势方向高位盘整震荡逐渐上行期权隐含波动率持续下降至较低水平持仓量PCR大幅度下降仍维持较高水平构建卖出看涨看跌宽跨式偏多头期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓逐渐离场如CU2302SCU2302P66000SCU2302P67000和SCU2302C67000SCU2302C680002铝期权沪铝低位盘整震荡一周后昨日大幅上扬突破近期高点涨幅058报收于19015期权隐含波动率上升111报收于1542持仓量PCR报收于086操作建议沪铝昨日突破盘整震荡两周的区间上限形成短期偏多头行情格局而上方有前期高点压力期权隐含波动率持续小幅下降期权持仓量PCR快速下降操作建议构建卖出看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如AL2302SAL2302P1890010SAL2302P1900010和SAL2302C1910010SAL2302C19200103锌期权沪锌ZN2301上周高位回落后连续跳空低开大幅下跌本周以来超跌反弹持续上涨回升涨幅095报收于23885期权隐含波动率大幅上升356报收于2261持仓量PCR小幅下降报收于092操作建议沪锌空头压力线下反弹回升期权隐含波动率大幅上涨沪锌期权持仓量PCR小幅下降构建卖出宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如ZN2302SZN2302P23600SZN2302P23800和SZN2302C24000SZN2302C242004黄金期权黄金延续多头趋势方向上大幅波动的市场行情格局涨幅057报收于40958期权隐含波动率下降017报收于1335期权持仓量PCR报收于065操作建议黄金延续偏多头趋势方向上大幅波动下方有60天均线支撑上方有前期高点压力期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR窄幅盘整构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如AU2302SAU2302-C-40810SAU2302-C-41610和SAU2302-P-40810SAU2302-P-408105铁矿石期权铁矿石I2302超跌反弹V型反转后维持两个月以来的多头上涨趋势本周以来高位盘整震荡大幅波动涨幅006报收于84000期权隐含波动率上升179报收于3370期权持仓量PCR快速下降报收于251操作建议铁矿石持续两个月以来的多头上涨趋势上周以来涨幅收窄形成高位宽幅矩形区间震荡期权隐含波动率持续反弹上升期权持仓量PCR急速下降构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如I2305SI2301-C-850SI2305-C-840和SI2305-P-840SI2305-P-830市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CUCU230266750004200006344514775ALAL2302190150011000058231321868ZNZN230223885002250009591610837AUAU23024095823205748219641II2302840000500062341964数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日CU230267000678001264006641442000064-33600242023-01-20AL230219000307002380019069430002315400242023-01-20ZN23022380042200421002380131200133-8400242023-01-20AU2302408466452408072018-144242023-01-20I230284018001440844510061360132023-01-09数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWCU2302162717251676-113197421331816AL2302158414701542111160816931523ZN2302239820532261356213922722006AU2302133413371335-017134813901307I2302257636813370179340936423176数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化CU230271447163100-064844515726186-013AL23021937511317058-0391475112634086-013ZN230270894649066-04070346468092-024AU230271994069057-0261649610787065-001I23023969010128925501755631139895251-015数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1铜主力合约走势图7500030成交量万收盘价2570000664200020650001560000105500055000002022-09-082022-10-252022-12-012022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-27图2铝主力合约走势图2400050成交量万收盘价230004022000210001910500302000019000201800010170001600002022-07-122022-07-252022-11-152022-11-282022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-152022-07-202022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-182022-11-232022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-27图3锌主力合约走势图3000060成交量万收盘价28000504026000302400020238100022000102000002022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-27图4黄金主力合约走势图20成交量万收盘价420407964051039037536002022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-27图5铁矿石主力合约走势图1000140成交量万收盘价120900844501008008070060406002050002022-06-242022-06-292022-07-042022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10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