摘要：
　　Chatbot：国内外模型更新迭代加速。据Sensor Tower，上周（0915~0921）国内外Chatbot App继续分化趋势，ChatGPT/Gemini/Grok/ DeepSeek/豆包/腾讯元宝/Kimi/通义/文小言/智谱清言周度下载量环比-7.1%/+23.2%/+5.5%/+6.1%/+2.3%/-5.3%/+6.4%/-11.4%/+109.9%/-2.8%，WAU环比+1.0%/+9.8%/-1.2%/+1.3%/+1.4%/+1.7%/+0.4%/+0.3%/+0.5%/-0.8%，用户每日时长环比-1.0%/+4.1%/+0.4%/+3.0%/+0.8%/-0.3%/-0.3%/+4.9%/+0.8%/持平。9月9日，百度文心大模型X1.1正式发布，相较于文心X1，X1.1的事实性提升34.8%，指令遵循提升12.5%，智能体提升9.6%。9月15日，xAI推出Grok 4 Fast模型，生成速度高达75 tokens/s，比标准版快10倍；该模型专注于及时响应场景，强调速度优先，适用于简单查询和工具调用，满足了特定用户追求及时结果的需求。9月16日，OpenAI推出GPT-5-Codex，专为智能体编程设计，显著提升代码重构、审查和缺陷发现的表现。该模型具备动态思考机制，能根据任务复杂度调整处理时间，提升编码效率；支持多平台集成，包括IDE扩展、Web界面和GitHub代码审查功能，增强开发者生态。
　　文生多模态：Seedream 4.0登顶全球文生图榜单。据Sensor Tower，上周可灵AI/即梦AI/ Hailuo AI/RunwayML/Wink/美图设计室周度下载量环比-5.8%/-14.5%/+3.2%/+12.5%/-33.6%/-7.5%，WAU环比分别-1.5%/+7.4%/+11.8%/0.0%/-1.7%/-2.9%，用户每日时长环比+23.2%/+2.1%/+4.9%/+0.3%/+4.3%/+0.8%，周度收入环比+10.2%/+8.6%/-4.5%/-0.3%/+7.5%/-14.6%。9月9日，字节跳动发布Seedream 4.0模型，通过"多能力合一"的架构革新重新定义了图像创作工具的标准，在单一架构中实现文生图、图像编辑、草图控图等八项核心功能集成，特别是4K超高清分辨率生成与1.8秒快速响应的组合，彻底改变了设计师的工作流效率。新一代模型在文字渲染清晰度、复杂排版处理等商业场景关键指标上提升显著，尤其在公式、表格等专业内容生成上的准确率大幅提升，成为教育、学术等垂直领域的生产力工具。LMArena和Artificial Analysis两大权威榜单显示，Seedream 4.0已登顶全球文生图榜单，并在图像编辑榜单排名第二，仅次于Nano Banana。
　　电商&本地生活：竞争趋于常态化。据Sensor Tower，上周淘宝/京东/拼多多/天猫周度下载量环比-3.2%/-0.6%/-1.6%/-18.0%，WAU环比分别-0.2%/+0.9%/-0.6%/-3.6%，用户每日时长环比-1.6%/-1.1%/-1.2%/+0.4%。另外，上周美团/大众点评/饿了么/京东到家/高德地图/百度地图/滴滴出行/曹操出行/大麦周度下载量环比分别+5.9%/+2.9%/+4.1%/-2.9%/-1.9%/-2.4%/+7.4%/-1.2%/-22.8%，WAU环比分别+0.2%/-2.9%/+2.2%/-2.5%/+1.3%/+1.0%/+0.5%/-1.5%/-2.6%，用户每日时长环比+2.1%/+1.9%/+2.5%/持平/+0.9%/+0.8%/+0.8%/+0.5%/-0.9%。
　　视频：开学季场景下的流量分化。据Sensor Tower，上周抖音/快手/红果短剧/哔哩哔哩/爱奇艺/腾讯视频/优酷视频周度下载量环比分别-5.7%/+1.7%/-0.8%/+1.9%/+12.5%/-1.3%/-0.4%，WAU环比分别-1.5%/-1.6%/+0.1%/+1.9%/+3.6%/-2.9%/-3.5%，用户每日时长环比-1.0%/-1.1%/+1.3%/+1.4%/+5.8%/+2.7%/+2.7%。
　　风险提示：地缘政治风险、汇率风险、流动性风险