>> 广发证券-广发宏观:5月美联储会议纪要的关键信息-240523
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2024/5/23 |
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576KB |
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广发证券 |
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作者: |
郭磊,陈嘉荔 |
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此报告为加密报告 |
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美联储每年召开8次议息会议,会议纪要(Minutes)是对政策形成过程和政策背后逻辑的详细说明,一般在会议三周后公布。5月1日议息会议的决定是利率不变(5.25-5.5%的政策利率目标区间)、放缓缩表(将每月被动缩减600亿美元国债放缓至每月250亿美元)。5月23日公布的议息会议纪要展示了这一决策背后的更多细节:一是美联储官员总体认为政策利率处于合理位置(well-positioned)。对于一季度通胀数据反复,一些与会者表示若通胀进一步回升,他们愿意收紧政策;二是美联储仍然重视通胀水平和就业市场的平衡,与会者认为若通胀没有更多进展,则需要保持高利率更长时间(longer);但若就业市场意外走弱,则将很快降息。三是几乎所有(almost all)与会者支持缩减QT规模,一些与会者强调缩减QT并不会影响紧缩的货币政策立场。 第一,5月会议中,美联储官员总体认为政策利率处于合理位置(well-positioned),一季度通胀数据反复导致一些(various)与会者表示,若通胀进一步回升,他们愿意(willingness)收紧政策。 “Participants assessed that monetary policy was well positioned;“participants noted disappointing readings on inflation over the first quarter, that it would take longer than previously anticipated for them to gain greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2%.”“Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.” 第二,美联储仍然重视通胀水平和就业市场的平衡,与会者认为,若通胀没有更多进展,则需要保持高利率更长时间(longer),但若就业市场意外走弱,则将很快降息,这与鲍威尔在5月发布会中表述一致。 “Participants discussed maintaining the current restrictive policy stance for longer should inflation not show signs of moving sustainably toward 2 percent or reducing policy restraint in the event of an unexpected weakening in labor market conditions.” 第三,纪要显示,几乎所有(almost all)与会者支持缩减QT规模,一些(a few)与会者认为QT可以保持当前节奏或者略微更高的赎回上限。 “A few participants indicated that they could have supported a continuation of the current pace of balance sheet runoff at this time or a slightly higher redemption cap on Treasury securities than was decided upon.”“various” participants emphasized that slowing the pace of runoff did not “have implications for the stance of monetary policy.” 整体来看,美联储仍然保持数据依赖策略,并没有给出确定的货币政策路径;但其货币政策姿态的“中枢位置”已有微妙的变化:纪要的表述显示通胀已经不是降息的唯一考虑标准,平衡通胀和就业市场才是。这与议息会议后鲍威尔在发布会中的三条政策路径一致:一是若通胀持续高位,则美联储不降息;二是若通胀开始下降则美联储降息;三是若就业市场超预期走弱则美联储降息。鲍威尔不认为美联储会加息(unlikely),不认为有滞胀风险,未来通胀仍会回落(see inflation moving down)。 在5月新闻发布会中,鲍威尔表态中性偏鸽。一是鲍威尔不认为美联储会加息(unlikely);二是鲍威尔认为今年以来通胀数据超预期回升,导致联储需要更长时间(takes longer)来证明通胀回落的可持续性;三是,鲍威尔不认为现在经济有滞胀风险,认为现在经济韧性较强,未来通胀仍会回落(see inflation moving down)。与此对应,鲍威尔给出的三条货币政策路径均不包括加息:一则若通胀持续高位,则美联储不降息;二则,若通胀开始下降则美联储降息;三则,若就业市场(失业率)超预期走弱则美联储降息。参见《如何看5月FOMC声明及鲍威尔的表态》。
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