研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary27Oct2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报NewissueZHANLO26wastradedataroundthereofferlevelthismorningGlennKoCFA高志和VNKRLEsweredownupto15ptsthismorningafterthedropof35-55pts85236576235yesterdayglennkocmbicomhkHRINTHAnnouncementofbondrepurchasesappeartobeaweeklyritualHRINTHswereunchangedto05pthigherthismorningSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩MEDCIJEarlytenderofUSD3918mntobeacceptedMEDCIJsmoved-0185239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkto01ptthismorningSeebelowTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超85237618919YesterdayovernightUST10yryieldswidened12bpsto498AsiaexJPjerrywangcmbicomhkIGspacewasmixedFlowwisewesawthebuysellratiotobearound12ChineseTMTSOEbenchmarksBABATENCNTHAOHUA30-31swereunchangedto2bpstighterThelong-endofCHGRIDsSINOPEswereup11-12ptsThehighbetaTMTsMEITUAXIAOMI30swereunchangedto2bpswiderInfinancialsthefrontendofChinesebankT2leasingpapersremainedunderbettersellingfromRMsICBCASCMINLE24s-26swere2-3bpswiderChineseAT1swereunchangedto01ptlowerHSBCSTANLNAT1sweredown1-15ptsBBLTBKBANKAT1sdeclined02ptAMCsweremixedGRWALL25-30swereunderbetterbuyingandclosed02-03pthigherwhileHRINTH24-27swastraded10-15bpswiderbutpricesarelargelystableLastnightHRINTHannouncedanotherbondrepurchasesofUSD174mninprincipalamountHKIGsHKLSPHKAA33swere3bpswiderInHKCorpperpsCKINF4PerpHYSAN41PerpLIFUNG525Perplowered05-1ptChinesepropertieswereweakledbyVNKRLEThedue24-29splummeted8-10ptsbeforerecoveredtoclose35-55ptslowerwithnospecificnewsWesawsellingfromChineseAMsHFsinVNKRLEandbuyingatthedipfromPBswithabitofHFinvolvementaswellTherewassomeAMtrimminginCHJMAObutwaslargelydigestedbythedemandfromChineseRMsCHJMAO2629closed07-1ptlowerPINGRE24-26swere08-17ptslowerLNGFOR28YUEXIU31were05-12ptslowerDALWANsdeclined07-08ptInindustrialsEHICAR2426wereup02-07ptwhileANTOIL25lowered25ptsInMacaugamingnamesMPELWYNMAC28-29swere07-12ptslowerIndianspacewasquietADSEZ27GRNKEN28weredown04ptIndonesiannamesLMRTSP2426were02-08pthigherMEDCIJsclosed03-04ptlowerTheLGFVPerpspaceswerestableandflowswerelightOntheprimaryfrontZHANLOpricedaUSD500mn3yrbondat99941toyield67OnthesecondarysideLGFVscontinuedtoseestrongdemandin8namessuchasCQNANAGZINFUZHHFGRBCDHGRyetoffersweremoresporadicCQNANA26swere01-07pthigherMeanwhiledeploymentdemandalsoPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk127Oct2023returnedonseveralqualitylow-yieldingnamesNJYZSOCDCOMMYWSOAOastop-updemandonthe7-handleShandongnamesfadedabitSHDOIS24QDHTCO25weredown01ptCPDEV26Perpweredown02-05ptSOEperpswerelargelyfirmHUADIA3375PerpRLCONS397Perpwereup01-02ptLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeTAISEM41204225282412VNKRLE42060724793-55CHGRID48505074487212VNKRLE315051225638-48CHGRID405044775612VNKRLE535031124879-40CHGRID43805224382211VNKRLE3975110927507-39CCAMCL43412043778311VNKRLE312111229417-35MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP-118Dow-076andNasdaq-176continuedtodownonThursdayUS3Q23GDPincreased49qoqhigherthantheexpectationof43qoqThelatestUSinitialjoblessclaimwas210khigherthantheexpectationof200kEuropeanCentralBankkeptinterestrateunchangedat45asexpectedThelong-termUSTyieldsweredownwhileshort-termyieldswerestable251030yieldreached502479486501respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点HRINTHAnnouncementofbondrepurchasesappeartobeaweeklyritualOn26Oct23Huarongannouncedthe6throundofUSDbondrepurchasestotalUSD174mninprincipalamountThefocusesremaintobeonlonger-datedandlowercashpricebondsincludingHRINTH3111329HRINTH3625093030andHRINTH5042747Allofthesewereconductedbetween20-26Oct23ExceptthegoldenweekHuarongannouncedbondrepurchaseseveryweeksince19Sep23Tousthesignificanceofthesuccessiverepurchasesoflonger-datedbondslieonthesignalofHuarongsstrongconfidenceonitsnear-termliquidityTable1HRINTHsrepurchasedetailsSourceBloomberg227Oct2023ThecumulativebondrepurchasestotalledUSD13bnequivalentinprincipalamountWeestimatethatHuaronghassofarreduceditsnetdebtandbookedexceptionalgainfromtherepurchasesofcUSD300mnHuarongsnetdebtswereRMB7363bnasatJun23anditreportednetlossesofRMB60bnin1H23Huarongraised3-yearonshorefinancialbondsofRMB20bncUSD27bnatacouponrateof31on16Aug23AssumingtheproceedsofcUSD27bnfromtheonshoreissuedareearmarkedforoffshorebondredemptionsandallrepurchaseshadbeenconductedsince16Aug23HuarongshouldstillhaveawarchestofcUSD11bnforearlyredemptionsofoffshorebondsPleasereadourcommentsHRINTHRoomforfurtherrepurchasesdated20Oct23formorediscussionHRINTHsremainourtoppicksinChineseAMCspaceForHRINTHsourpreferencesareHRINTH375052924HRINTH55011625andHRINTH425Perpcallable093025WealsolikeGRWALL395Perpcallable073124andCCAMCL44Perpcallable031126asalowbetaplayChart1PricemovementofrepurchasedHRINTHssince1Sep23SourceBloombergMEDCIJEarlytenderofUSD3918mntobeacceptedMedcoEnergiannouncedearlyresultsofits12Oct23tenderofferforthefourUSDbondsTherewerecUSD12bnbondstenderedandtenderamountsof202620272028bondsreachedthecapofUSD606070mn327Oct2023Thecompanywillacceptthetenderedbondsonapro-ratabasisandwillnotacceptforpurchaseanyofthemafterearlytenderdeadlineFor2025notestherearecUSD333mnoutstandingnotesnottenderedandthecompanywillacceptthemat982excludingUSD3earlypremiumfrom1012before9Nov23Weexpectmostofthebondstoremainoutstandingastheconsiderationislowerthanthecurrentpriceof1009ThisisthesecondtenderofferfromMedcoEnergiwithinoneyearRecalledthatinNov22thecompanyrepurchasedUSD255102mnofMEDCIJ675013025at98viatenderofferAfterthecompletionofthistenderofferthecompanywillrepurchasetotalingc646mnUSDnotesandfacelessthancUSD333mnUSDnotesmaturitiesbefore2026Theconcurrent55NC2newissueMEDCIJ896042729wasreofferedat98771toyield925on19Oct23RatingB1BBbyMSFandcurrentlytradedat984Theproceedsfromnewissuewillbeusedtorefinanceexistingdebtsorreplacecommittedbutcurrentlyundrawnfacilitieswhichmayincludethefinancingrelatingtopotentialacquisitionof20interestsinaproducingassetsintheMiddleEastosamountMaximumTenderedExpectedacceptanceEarlytenderofferProrationCurrentaskNotesUSDmnamountamountamountconsiderationfactorpriceMEDCIJ67501302523510Anyandall2018012018011012-1009MEDCIJ737505142653361603136666010023201993MEDCIJ6375013027570736043897160962518796943MEDCIJ695111228372607026421670955309599311712041218654391801SourceCompanyfillingsOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFEnergo-ProAS3005NC2110110-BBB-FujianZhanglongGroup5003yr6767--BBB-OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere108creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB142bnAsforMonth-to-date1157creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1273bnraisedrepresentinga11yoyincreaseADEINMediareportedthatAdaniGroupisseekingtoraisemaximumUSD4bntohelpfundgroupsgreenhydrogenplans427Oct2023CAPGChinaAoyuanannouncedtoextendRSAlongstopdatetoasearlyas29Dec23CHJMAOMediareportedthatChinaJinmaoplanstospinoffaninfrastructuresecuritiesinvestmentfundandlistitonShanghaiStockExchangeCIFIHGMediareportedthatCIFIdomesticunitpaidontimefirstamortizationcoupononrestructuredRMB750mndue-2025bondsDALWANMediareportedthatZhuhaiWandaisstillpushingaheaditsIPOplanandthatDalianWandaGrouptheparentofDalianWandaCommercialManagementisseekingconsentsfromholdersofitsUSD500mntermloantopayonly10oftheoriginalUSD150mninstalmentonduedateNov23GCLNEGCLTechnologyboughtbackadditional18mnsharesforaroundHKD22mnHRINTHChinaHuarongAMCfurtherrepurchasedandcancelledUSD107mnHRINTH3875111329USD57mnHRINTH55042747andUSD10mnHRINTH3625093030NAGACLNagaCorpannouncedithassufficientfinancialresourcesforfullrepaymentof2024notesSINOPESinopec9M23revenueup07yoytoRMB247tnandoperatingproftincreased45yoytoRMB793bnYANGZHYangzhouEconomicandTechnologyDevelopmentZoneDevelopmentreceivedShanghaibourseapprovaloverRMB1bncorporatebondofferingFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreport527Oct2023CMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6