研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary26Oct2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报AsianIGspacewidened0-2bpsthismorningpostUSTratesrallyIGGlennKoCFA高志和benchmarkBABATENCNTwidenedc2bpsIGpropertiesandEUAT1swere85236576235alsoweakFlowsonLGFVweretwo-waybalancedglennkocmbicomhkCHIOLINotableyoyreboundin3Q23CHIOLIsmoved-02to02ptthismorningSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩MEDCIJMedcoEnergiunitsigneduptoUSD350mnsyndicatedloanwith85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkinternationalbanksMEDCIJswereunchangedtodown03ptthismorningJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayAsiaexJPIGspreadswereunchangedto2bpstighterChineseSOETMTbenchmarksBABASINOCH31swereunchangedto1bptighterInthehighbetaTMTsMEITUAXIAOMI30stightened3-6bpsInfinancialsthefrontendofChinesebankT2leasingpaperswereundersomesellingBCHINAICBCASCMINLE24-26sedged1-2bpswiderInAMCsHRINTH26-27swereunderbettersellingHKChineseAT1swereunderbetterbuyingICBCAS358PerpCINDBK325PerpCHOHIN57Perpwereup01ptMUFG82PerpHSBC8Perpwere03-04pthigherBBLTB5PerpKBANK4Perpwereup02-03ptInHKCorpspaceNWSZF575PerpCKINF485Perpwere04-07pthigherHKChinesepropertiesperformedmixedSHUION23YLLGSP24wereup04-06ptPINGRE2425weretraded49-6ptshigherafterreportonthepotentialfinancialsupportofRMB30bnfromPingAnInsuranceGEMDAL24was24ptshigherCHJMAOshoveredunchangedto02pthigherOntheotherhandVNKRLE2527dropped14-32ptsonsellingfromRMsHFsCHIOLI42-43swere17-19ptslowerCHCHCN24slowered12-26ptsFUTLANFTLNHDGRNCH24-26sweredown06-12ptsCOGO26wasdown08ptInindustrialsANTOIL25EHICAR26wereup06-15ptsInMacaugamingnamesMPELSTCITY28-30swere11-2ptshigherSANLTD27-31swereup05-08ptInIndonesiannamesLPKRIJ2526gained13-25ptsLMRTSP2426wereup09-2ptsIndonesiangovernmentannouncedtowaivethe11VATforpurchasesofhousesworthlessthanIDR2bnthroughJun2024MedcoEnergisecuredasyndicatedloanofuptoUSD350mnMEDCIJsclosed02pthigherInthePerpLGFVspaceswesawdecenttwo-wayflowsonqualitypapersSOEperpswerestillunderbetterbuyingfromChineseRMsCHPWCN425PerpCHSCOI34Perpwere02-04pthigherInLGFVsthehigheryielding8papersremainedsought-afterQDJZWDSHDOIS24swere03-04pthigherWhilsttherecentShandongissuesat7-handleweremoremixeddrivenbyprimarytechnicalsJINLIX26wasbetterbidwhilstJNHITE26wasPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk126Oct202301ptlowerKMRLGP24wasup03ptCPDEV2526wereup02-05ptElsewhereFRESHK25-26swereup02-04ptLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangePINGRE31406232563560VNKRLE3975110927541-32PINGRE23407292484249REGH612PERP370-30PINGRE34507292656146CSCHCN9100924382-26GEMDAL49508122420526CHIOLI638102943875-19LPKRIJ81801222582325CHIOLI535111542777-17MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP-143Dow-032andNasdaq-243wereweakonWednesdayUSnewhomesalesinSepwas759kincreasedfrom676kinAugandwashigherthantheexpectationof680kCrudeoilpricesrose2yesterdayduetoescalatingconflictintheMiddleEastBrentWTIcrudepriceincreasedtoUSD901854perbarrelThelong-termUSTyieldsralliedhigherwhileshort-termyieldswerestable251030yieldreached508489495509respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点CHIOLINotableyoyreboundin3Q23In3Q23ChinaOverseasLandsrevenuerose61yoytoRMB2825bnandoperatingprofitincreased96yoytoRMB353bnIn9M23itsrevenuewasdown32yoytoRMB11741bnwhileoperatingprofitrose59toRMB226bnAsof30Sep23ithadRMB11553bncashonhand12higherthanthatinJun23Netgearingratiowas397increasedfrom377inJun23duetoacquisitionofnewlandsIn9M23CHIOLIscontractedsaleswereRMB23903bnup187yoyCHIOLIisoneoffivedeveloperswhichrecordedyoycontractedsalesgrowthamong34ChinesedevelopersunderourradartherestfourcompaniesareYUEXIUCRHZCHHPDLFandPOLYREBesidesCHIOLIacquirednewlandequitiesforRMB644bnranked2ndamongallChinesedevelopersaccordingtoChinaIndexAcademythepurchasedlandsweremainlyinhightiercitiessuchasGuangzhouandNanjingWeexpectsCHIOLIscreditprofileswillcontinuetobestablegivenitsrecoveredsaleshighqualitylandreservesandadequatefinancingresourcesTable1CHIOLIsoutstandingUSDbondsAmtOutSecurityNameRatingMSFUSDmnAskPriceYTMAskModDurationCHIOLI5102923Baa1BBBA-5001001-4300CHIOLI595050824Baa1BBBA-7009966705CHIOLI2030225Baa1-A-3009486513CHIOLI4042628Baa1BBBA-7509306640CHIOLI345071529-BBBA-4508546650CHIOLI305112729Baa1--2948246653CHIOLI2030230Baa1-A-5007986756226Oct2023CHIOLI645061134Baa1BBBA-5009477273CHIOLI3030235Baa1-A-2006857288CHIOLI6102943Baa1BBBA-50089474103CHIOLI535111542Baa1BBB-300792741054994TotalSourceBloombergChinarealestatemarketwasstillweakinnationwidethecommercialhousingsalesamountdropped104yoyin9M23and192yoyinSep23asperNBSWeexpectsomeyoypick-upincontractedsalesin4Q23inviewofthelowbasefiguresandsupportivepropertypolicespublishedinlateSep23inhighertiercitiesAmongthesectorWepreferdeveloperswithmaturedinvestmentpropertiesandmanageablenear-termmaturitieslikeSeazenLongforandHopsonChart1ChinamonthlycommercialhousingsalesamountandYoYchangeSourceNBSOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSF326Oct2023NoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFFujianZhanglongGroupUSD-3yr69--BBB-NoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere103creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB84bnAsforMonth-to-date1053creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1133bnraisedrepresentinga06yoydecreaseCHIOLIChinaoverseasland3Q23revenuerose61yoytoRMB28bnoperatingprofitincreased96yoytoRMB35bnGRNKENSPwithdrewGreenkoEnergyHoldingsBB-ratingatcompanysrequestHYUELESKHynix3Q23revenuedown17yoytoUSD67bnandEBITDAdown70yoytoUSD11bnMEDCIJMedcoEnergiunitsigneduptoUSD350mnsyndicatedloanwithinternationalbanksSDEXPRShandongHi-SpeedGroupissuedRMB15bnextendablecorporatebondswith359coupontorepaydebtsTYLCDITaiyuanLongchengDevelopmentInvestmentproposestoofferuptoRMB1bnextendableMTNstorepaydebtsVEDLNMediareportedthatVedantaResourcesisintheprocessofsolicitingcommitmentsfromfundsforitsbrand-feebackedUSD12-13bnloanYUZHOUYuzhouGroupdoesnotexpecttopayUSD650mnYUZHOU6102523onduedateZHESTAZhenjiangState-OwnedInvestmentproposestoofferRMB300mtwo-yearMTNstorepaydebtsFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreport426Oct2023ImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5