>> 招银国际-China Technology–Implications of UMC 3Q23：inventory correction,UTR／margin under pressure,PC&smartphone rush order-231026
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研究报告全文：26Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaTechnologyMaintainImplicationsofUMC3Q23inventorycorrectionUTRmarginunderpressurePCsmartphonerushorderUmcUMCpostedin-line3Q23resultsonstrongcomputingcommunicationandbetterChinaTechnologySectorproductmixLookingaheadmgmtexpectsPCsmartphoneinventoryrecoverybutautocorrectionwillpersistinto2024Inadditionmgmtexpects8-inchUTRandASPtobeunderpressurebutpositiveon12-inchandspecialtyAlexNG85239000881processdemandOverallwebelieveinvestorswillstarttofocusonalexngcmbicomhkPCsmartphonerecoveryin4Q232024EForstockswerecommendtofocusonLuxshare002475CHQ-tech1478HKandSunnyOptical2382HKasHanqingLIwellasChinesefoundriessuchasSMIC981HKandHuaHong1347HKlihanqingcmbicomhk3Q23resultsin-linestrongcomputingcommunicationandbetterproductmixUMCs3Qrevenueof-24YoY14QoQisin-linewithmarketexpectationdrivenbystrongcomputingcommunicationsegmentsbetterproductmixandfavourableFXrateShipmentdeclineof2QoQbutslightincreaseinASPareinlinewithpreviousguidanceGPMof359isaboveconsensusby16pptsmainlyonproductmixLowerUTRin4QweighsonGPMMgmtguided4Qwafershipmenttodeclineby5QoQbutASPwillremainflatUTRwillbeinthelow-60rangecomparedwith67in3QGuidedGPMisinthelow30rangewhichisslightlybelowconsensusestimateof344PCsmartphonerushorderandinventoryrecoveryautoinventorycorrectioninto2024MgmtbelievesPCsmartphonedemandgraduallystabilizedandexpectsrushordersin4QwhichindicatesanearlysignofinventoryrecoveryHoweverautomotiveinventoryisbuildingupandmgmtexpectsinventorycorrectionwillpersistinto2024InadditionindustrialsegmentisbetterthanautogivenbroadapplicationsRelatedReports1ImplicationsofTexasInstruments8-inchUTRASPunderpressure12-inchsoliddemandMgmtexpects3Q23weakerindustrialdestocking8-inchUTRandASPtobeunderpressuregivenweakdemandandandslowerChinarecovery26Octintensifiedcompetitionbut12-inchwillfocusonspecialtyprocesswithsolid2023linkdemandandstableASPInadditionmgmtreiteratedthatLTAisstillintact2ImplicationsofTSMC3Q23cyclewith25-30coveragebutisfacedwithadjustmentintheshorttermnearingthebottomPositiveonLookinginto2024mgmtexpectsUTRshipmenttogrowYoYwhencyclesmartphonePCsupplychain-24recoversOct2023link3ImplicationsofASMLLAMMaintainFY23EcapexcapacityexpansionontrackMgmtmaintainedResearch3Q23results-20OctFY23EcapexguidanceofUS3bnandsharedtheircapacityexpansion2023linkplan1P6capacitytoreach12kinend2023and32kinSep20242P34ImplicationsofUSsupdatedchipSingaporecapacityrampupinApr2025exportrestrictionstoglobalPositiveonsmartphonesupplychainOverallwebelieveinvestorswilldomesticSPEGPUcompanies-18starttofocusonPCsmartphonerecoveryin4Q232024EWerecommendOct2023linktopayattentiontonamesincludingLuxshare002475CHQ-tech14785GlobalSPE2Q23WrapChinaHKandSunnyOptical2382HKaswellasChinesefoundriessuchasdemandremainsresilientAwaitingSMIC981HKandHuaHong1347HKupcycleafter2023slowdown-18Sep2023linkValuationTable6GlobalfablessIDM2Q23wrapMktCapPricePExPBxROEexpectcontinuedinventoryNameTickercorrectionfornon-AIplayersAllUSmnLCFY23EFY24EFY23EFY23EeyesonNVDA3Q23EguidanceSMIC981HK212752162212181063823Aug2023linkHuaHongSemi1347HK42771861231380791057Globalfoundry2Q23WrapprolongedinventorycorrectionTSMC2330TT445537544178147409248slowerdemandrecoveryin2H-16UMC2303TT18815491108105181166Aug2023linkSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk26Oct2023KeytakeawaysofUMC2303TTNR3Q23results13Q23ResultsRevenueTWD57069bn-243YoY14QoQaboveconsensusby19GPM359-114pptsYoY-01pptsQoQaboveconsensusby16pptsduetoproductmixNetprofitTWD15971bn-408YoY21YoYEPSTWD129-401YoY16QoQBlendedASPincreasedslightlyin3Q23Wafershipmentdeclinedby23QoQUTR67vs71in2Q2323Q23salesbreakdownBreakdownbytechnologyo14-28nm32ofsalesvs29in2Q23o28-40nm13ofsalesvs12in2Q23o40-65nm19ofsalesvs23in2Q23o65-90nm8ofsalesvs10in2Q23o90nmandabove28ofsalesvs26in2Q23BreakdownbyapplicationoComputer13ofsalesvs9in2Q23oCommunication46ofsalesvs44in2Q23oConsumer23ofsalesvs26in2Q23oOthers18ofsalesvs21in2Q23BreakdownbyregionoNorthAmerica27ofsalesvs27in2Q23oAsiaPacific58ofsalesvs56in2Q23oEurope12ofsalesvs12in2Q23oJapan3ofsalesvs5in2Q2334Q23GuidanceWafershipmentdeclineby5QoQASPremainflatinUSDGPMinthelow-30rangeUTRlow-60range2023CapexUS3bnunchanged4OtherhighlightRushorderfromPCsmartphonein4Qautoinventorycorrectioninto2024industrialbetterthanauto8-inchUTRandASPunderpressure12-inchstrongdemandandstableASPLTA25-30intactbutfaceadjustmentintheshortterm2024outlookUTRShipmentYoYgrowthbutfocusonquarterlyperformanceNewcapacityP6of12byend2023and32kbySep2024P3capacityramp-upinApr2025CapexFY23EcapexofUS3bnremainsunchangedPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE226Oct2023Figure1UMCrevenuebyapplication3Q23SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2UMCrevenuebyregion3Q23SourceCompanyCMBIGMestimatesFigure3UMCrevenuebycustomertype3Q23SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE326Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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