研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportEnergyOperationsSectorPeterShao邵俊樨行业报告能源运营行业85225095464petershaogtjascomhk20October2023ChinaTableMainInfoSeptemberPowerStatsRisingElectricityDemandImpressiveHydropowerGrowth行业ReportEventChinasNationalEnergyAgencyandNationalBureauofStatistics报releaseddataonpowerconsumptionandproductioninSeptember2023TableInvestInfoChinaspowerconsumptioninSeptemberincreasedby99yoyandthatinRatingOutperform告SectorMaintained1-9M23grewby56yoypowergenerationfrompowerplantsabovedesignatedsizeinSeptemberwasupby77yoyandthatin1-9M23rose评级跑赢大市维持42yoy2PowerconsumptiongrowthinSeptemberwasdrivenbyeconomicrecoveryandaugmentedbyalowbaseeffectChinaspowerconsumptioninSeptembergrew99yoy60pptshigherthantheyoygrowthinAugustByindustrysegmentspowerconsumptioninSeptemberbytheprimarysecondarytertiaryresidentialsectorgrewby86yoy87yoy103yoy165yoyrespectivelyWebelievethegrowthofpowerconsumptioninSeptemberwasprimarilyattributedtotwofactorsthecomparativelylowyoybaseandeconomicrecoveryInSeptember证Chinasindustrialaddedvaluewitnessedayoygrowthof45maintaining告券thesamegrowthrateaslastmonthwhilethecountrystotalretailsalesof研报consumergoodsgrew55yoyacceleratingby09pptcomparedwiththatinAugust究究ResearchReportInSeptemberhydropoweroutputgrewstronglywhilethermalpower报研generationgrowthremainedtepidPowergenerationbypowerplants告券abovedesignatedsizegrew77yoyinSeptemberacceleratingby66pptsEquitycomparedwiththatinAugustInSeptemberhydropowergenerationgrew证stronglythegrowthratesofwindandsolarpowergenerationdivergednuclearpowergenerationgrowthacceleratedandthermalpowergenerationgrowthremainedtepidMorespecificallyhydrogenpowergenerationinSeptembergrew392yoy207pptshigherthanthegrowthinAugustthankstoimprovedwaterflowsandalowbaseeffectaccordingtoChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationthenationalaveragerainfallinSeptemberwasT641millimetersup298yoyBasedondataprovidedbyYangtzeRiveraHydrologyBureauasofSeptember292023thetotalstoragecapacityofbthereservoirsintheYangtzeRiverbasinabovethedeadwaterlevelreached能93bncubicmetersup399bncubicmetersyoyWebelievesuchincrease源linthewaterstoragelevelshouldensurecontinuedimprovementin运ehydropowergenerationinthefollowingmonthsInSeptemberwinderpower营generationdeclined16yoywhilesolarpowergenerationgrew68yoy行bothlikelyduetofluctuationsintherespectivenaturalresourcesThermal业Lpowergenerationwasup24yoymaintainingatepidgrowthratelikelyeduetoasqueeze-outeffectbyrenewablesaswellasahighbaseeffectfEnergySectorOperationsInvestmentsuggestionsMaintainOutperformfortheenergyoperationstsectorOursectortoppickisCRP00836HKwhoseimprovedearningsprofilebysolidgreentransformationhasyettobefullypricedinwithaTPofMHK1954aDownsiderisksLower-than-expectedpowerdemandlower-than-expectedrprogressinpowermarketreformsunfavourablepolicychangesforIPPsginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4SeSourcesectorinresidentialChinaSourcesecondaryChinaindustryinSourceFigureFigureFigureethTWhTWhTWh100012001400160010002000300040005000600010000e100020003000400050006000700080009000200400600800NEAGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiNEA---las201953120192019000t-150AccumulatedAccumulatedpowerChinaconsumptioninAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerconsumptionbytheAccumulatedpowerconsumptionbythepag102Jan-Jan48Jane2729FebFeb202020202020fo23Febrdisclaimer0242MarMar36Mar03502021Apr2021Apr202147Apr0549MayMay52May144420222022Jun2022Jun50Jun324652JulJulJul135020232023AugAug202350Aug0555SepSep56Sepyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyOctOctOctNovNovNovPDecDecDec0020406080100120140160-120-100-80-60-40-200020406080-60-40-200020406080SourceSourceSourcetertiaryChinaindustryinFigureprimaryChinaindustryinFigureFigureTWhTWh1000000120000014000001600000TWh100020003000400050006000700080009000100120140200000400000600000800000204060800201920190NEAGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiNEANEAGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiNEA2019---47426Jan007FebAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerconsumptionbytheAccumulatedpowerconsumptionbytheAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerChinainproduction-4362JanFeb20202020242020Mar-01Feb97MarTablePageHeader34Apr41Mar103Apr20212021202139May71Apr116May9838MayJun121Jun202220222022100Jun38123JulJul98Jul36117AugAug20232023202392Aug11342SepSep103SepnryprtosSectorOperationsEnergyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyOctyoygrowth2023RHS2023growthyoyOctOctNovNovNovDecDecDec0020406080100120140PagePage-60-40-200020406080100120000510152025303540452ofof42nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTSectorReportEnergyOperationsSector能源运营行业20October2023SeSourceSourceinChinapowerSourceChinainhydropowerFigureFigureFigureTableSectorSubReportethTWhTWh100150200250100012001400e50200400600800NEAGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiNEANEA0---las1197201920190t254GuotaiJunanJunanGuotaiFebAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerbyproductionAccumulatedAccumulatedpowerbyproductionsolarpag-34FebAccumulatedproductionpowerbypowerthermale278Mar-fo20202020Mar83rdisclaimer238-Apr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