1) 9月经济继续温和改善：由于政策支持力度加大，9月中国投资与消费增速小幅回升，工业与服务业生产加快，房地产降幅收窄，失业率回落。
　　2)预计经济继续温和修复：失业率的下降带动三季度居民收入增长加快，这可能推动四季度消费进一步恢复。地方政府存量债务置换将降低利息负担，有利于政府扩大支出。

研究报告全文：InvestmentconsultingbusinessqualificationSECLicense2012No669ChinaSeptembereconomicdatacommentary中国9月经济数据点评刘道钰LiuDaoyuQualificationNoF3061482ConsultingNoZ0016422桂晨曦GuiChenxiQualificationNoF3023159ConsultingNoZ001363220231018DATASeptemberexpectedAugustJulyFixedassetinvestmentaccumulatedYoY31313234TotalretailsalesofconsumergoodsYoY55494625Value-addedofIndustriesYoY45464537Urbansurveyedunemploymentrate50525319月经济继续温和改善由于政策支持力度加大9月中国投资与消费增速小幅回升工业与服务业生产加快房地产降幅收窄失业率回落2预计经济继续温和修复失业率的下降带动三季度居民收入增长加快这可能推动四季度消费进一步恢复地方政府存量债务置换将降低利息负担有利于政府扩大支出1ChinaeconomycontinuedtoimproveinSeptemberDuetoincreasedpolicysupporttheinvestmentandconsumptiongrewfasterslightlythegrowthofindustrialandserviceindustryproductionacceleratedthedeclineinrealestatenarrowedandtheunemploymentratedecreased2ChinaeconomymaycontinuetorecovermoderatelyThedecreaseinunemploymentratehasacceleratedthegrowthofresidentsincomeinthethirdquarterwhichmayfurtherpromotetherecoveryofconsumptioninthefourthquarterThereplacementoflocalgovernmentsexistingdebtwillreducetheinterestburdenandfacilitatethegovernmentsexpansionofexpenditureFixedassetinvestmentRealestateFloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldYoYInfrastructureManufacturingFloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoY25YoYtwoyearaveragegrowthratein202120two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021201015010-1050-20-5-30-10-40-15-50-20-60Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Feb-19Dec-19Oct-20Aug-21Jun-22Apr-23RetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoY70UrbanSurveyedUnemploymentRate15250Value-addedofIndustriesIndexofServicesProductionYoYrightaxis651015060550550-5050-5-150twoorfouryearaveragegrowth45twoorfouryearaveragegrowthrate-10ratein2021or2023in2021or2023-25040-15Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22SourcesWindCITICSFImportantReminderThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport重要提示本报告难以设置访问权限若给您造成不便敬请谅解我司不会因为关注收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户市场有风险投资需谨慎DisclaimerUnlessotherwisespecifiedCITICFuturesCoLtdpossessesthecopyrightandorotherrelatedintellectualpropertyrightsofthisreportWithoutauthorizationnocontentofthisreportmaybesentorcopiedCITICFuturesCoLtdmakesnoexpressorimpliedwarrantiesregardingtheaccuracyreliabilitytimelinessorcompletenessoftheinformationviewpointsanddatacontainedinthisreportThisreportdoesnotconstituteanypersonalconsultationoradvicegiventoyoubyCITICFuturesCoLtd免责声明除非另有说明中信期货有限公司拥有本报告的版权和或其他相关知识产权未经授权不得发送或复制本报告任何内容中信期货有限公司对于本报告所载的信息观点以及数据的准确性可靠性时效性以及完整性不作任何明确或隐含的保证此报告并不构成中信期货有限公司给予阁下的任何私人咨询建议