21日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力2311收于14585元/吨，日内跌幅1.35%，持仓量减仓3374手至87038手。百川硅参考价15392元/吨，较上个交易日上涨145元/吨。其中#553各地价格区间涨至14400-15450元/吨，#421价格区间涨至16050-16350元/吨。最低交割品#421价格涨至14050元/吨，现货贴水450元/吨。西北硅厂增加高质量421供货并延续挺价操作，期限贸易结构由南向北转移。供给高位释放下，下游买涨不买跌意向主导，大幅增加采购意愿，整体社库水位持续下滑。晶硅需求有效带动部分低价货源，持续维稳产业格局。目前市场整体交投氛围积极，硅价涨势不减。但电池片行情仍存在一定拖累隐患，悲观条件下若出现大额减产，需警惕价格施压传导至原料端。

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年9月22日一研究观点点评21日工业硅震荡偏弱主力2311收于14585元吨日内跌幅135持仓量减仓3374手至87038手百川硅参考价15392元吨较上个交易日上涨145元吨其中553各地价格区间涨至14400-15450元吨421价格区间涨至16050-16350元吨最低交割品421价格涨至14050元吨现货贴水450元吨西北硅厂增加高质量421供货并延续挺价操作期限贸易结构由南向北转移供给高位释放下下游买涨不买跌意向主导大幅增加采购意愿整体社库水位持续下滑晶硅需求有效带动部分低价货源持续维稳产业格局目前市场整体交投氛围积极硅价涨势不减但电池片行情仍存在一定拖累隐患悲观条件下若出现大额减产需警惕价格施压传导至原料端请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅20239212023920涨跌SI00GFE1450014755-255期货结算价元吨SI01GFE1458514860-275不通氧553硅华东14650146500不通氧553硅黄埔港14600146000不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港14550145500元吨不通氧553硅昆明145501450050不通氧553硅四川144001435050不通氧553硅上海15000150000通氧553硅华东1530015200100通氧553现货价格通氧553硅黄埔港1530015200100元吨通氧553硅天津港1520015100100通氧553硅昆明154501540050421硅华东160501600050421硅有机硅用华东16300163000421硅黄埔港16100161000421现货价格元421硅天津港16050160500吨421硅昆明16150161500421硅有机硅用昆明16350163500421硅四川16350163500无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东14650146500不通氧553硅黄埔港14750147500不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港14650146500元吨不通氧553硅昆明150501500050市场行情不通氧553硅四川149501490050421硅华东160501600050421硅有机硅用华东16300163000421硅黄埔港16250162500421现货价格元421硅天津港16150161500吨421硅昆明16650166500421硅有机硅用昆明16850168500421硅四川16900169000现货553与421价差165016500按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格140501400050现货升贴水-450-755305下游DMC华东市场14900149000DMC东岳有机硅000DMC合盛硅业14900149000有机硅元吨生胶15000150000107胶15300153000二甲基硅油16200162000复投料单晶用81000810000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用79000790000菜花料单晶用77000770000硅片元片单晶M6M10G12305335412305335434000000-022电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G12061069072061069072000000000单晶perc单面166182210116122125116122125000000000光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面166182210117123125117123125000000000本周上周涨跌黄埔港33000300003000天津港36000340002000工业硅吨社会昆明港20000180002000库存厂库68600614407160DMC吨厂库49000442004800多晶硅吨厂库6115072250-11100资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧553421-55370000350006000030000500002500040000200003000015000200001000010000500000-500020207220211520212320232720233820234720236920239820205220218920219720221120235920236720237620238420239420207312020831202092920201152020124202131120214122021514202161520217142021812202191020221182022223202232420224262022530202262920227282022826202292720221122022121202351120237122023810202053120206292020728202082620209242021118202121620213172021415202151420216122021711202110620211142021123202213020222282022329202242720225262022624202272320228212022919202311320232112023312202341020201023202011212020122020221018202211162022121520211020202111182021121720221230图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-6000020207220208320209220228120221220222320223720224820231520232620238120239220211132021219202132320214232021528202163020217302021831202211220222182022322202242520225302022630202283120221192022129202311120232172023321202342120235262023629202373120238302022118202221920223232022424202251020225262022611202262720227132022729202281420228302022915202210120221122022124202312120232222023310202332620234112023427202351320235292023614202363020237162023817202391820201012202011112020121120211011202111102021121020221010202210172022111820221220图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州8004000700350060030005002500400200030015002001000100500002020722020852021542021672022362023162023912020982022492023292022272022522023192023432021822022742022952023652023872021122202122520218142021917202213120225132022616202282320229262022123202331520234182023625202372920213312021711202272020235222021104202112620221172022228202232120224112022926202211720231302023220202331320234242023918202182320219132022523202261320227252022815202351520236262023717202382820201012202011152021112420201219202110212021122820221030202111152021122720221017202211282022121920211025资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价70000700006000060000500005000040000400003000030000200002000010000100000020207220214820215620216320217120224720225520226220232920233920234620235420236120207220212320216320219720221520225520228920229220234620238420207302020827202092420211142021211202131120217292021826202192320221132022210202231020226302022728202282520229222023112202362920237272023828202072620208192020912202010620211102021227202132320214162021510202162720217212021814202110120221292022222202231820224112022529202262220227162022926202212720231242023217202331320234302023524202361720237112023828202010222020111920201217202110212021111820211216202210202022111720221215202010302020112320201217202110252021111820211212202210202022111320221231图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲35000080908300000707625000006520000005415000004303100000202500001010002021922022212022572022732023192023372023532023862021812021982022272022452022612022792022942023232023412023592023752021921202112620221132022220202231120223302022418202252620226142022722202281020228292022917202210620221222023128202321620233262023414202352220236102023629202371820238252023913202182020219272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