我们维持“收集”评级，目标价为4.08港元。我们下调中国通号（“公司”）2023-2025年股东净利润预测分别至人民币39.01亿元（-4.6%）/人民币42.90亿元（-8.2%）/人民币47.60亿元（-8.1%）。我们预测公司2023/ 2024/ 2025年的每股盈利分别为人民币0.360元、人民币0.396元和人民币0.441元。我们的目标价对应10.0倍/ 9.1倍/ 8.1倍2023-2025年市盈率和0.8倍2023年市净率。
　　公司2023年上半年收入减少，毛利率上升。公司2023年上半年实现营业收入人民币166.3亿元，同比下降9.52%，主要由于工程项目收入减少所致。公司2023年上半年毛利率上升1.8个百分点至25.0%。公司股东净利润为人民币18.24亿元，同比下降5.7%。我们认为公司的毛利率在2023年下半年可能维持在目前的水平。
　　公司新签订单增加。2023年上半年，公司累计新签合同订单总额为人民币316.7亿元，同比增长10.49%，其中，铁路领域新签合同金额为人民币97.8亿元，同比增长30.15%；城轨领域新签合同金额为人民币58.5亿元，同比下降9.57%。新签合同的增加将确保公司未来两年的收入增长。公司的合同周期约为3年，97%的销售额将在约2年内确认为收入。随着中国铁路客运量的大幅提升，我们认为公司的新合同将保持快速增长。因此，我们预计新合同的乐观增长可能会反映在2024年和2025年的收入增长上。
　　公司海外市场表现良好。2023年上半年，公司海外业务收入为人民币5.86亿元，同比增长6.59%，主要原因是公司持续推进匈塞项目诺苏段、雅万高铁等海外项目进度。此外，海外新签合同金额达人民币13.84亿元，同比增长2,390.11%。虽然海外业务收入所占比例较小，但我们认为，随着越来越多的海外项目完工，公司的海外业务收入将继续保持快速增长。
　　风险提示：行业竞争加剧；海外需求不足；原材料价格超预期波动。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleAlexBai白舸CompanyReportChinaCRSC03969HK究85225097202EquityResearch公司报告中国通号03969HKgebaigtjascomhk28August2023NewlyTableS-ummarySignedOrdersRemainedGrowthAccumulateWemaintainAccumulateandTPofHK408WereduceourChinaTableRank公CRSCstheCompany2023-2025shareholdersnetprofittoRMB3901RatingAccumulateMaintainedReportmn-46RMB4290mn-82RMB4760mn-81respectively司WeforecasttheCompanysearningspersharein202320242025tobe评级收集维持报RMB0360RMB0396andRMB0441respectivelyOurTPrepresents告100x91x81x2023-2025PEratioand08x2023PBratioCompanyTheCompanyrevenuedecreasedwithgrossprofitmarginincreasedin6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK408HK4081H23TheCompanysrevenuein1H23wasRMB1663billionadecreaseof952YoYmainlyduetothedecreaseinrevenuefromconstructionShareprice股价HK2630projectsTheCompanysgrossmarginincreased18pptsto250in1H23TheCompanysshareholdersnetprofitwasdown57YoYtoRMB1824告mnWebelievethattheCompanysgrossprofitmarginmaymaintainatitsStockperformance证currentlevelin2H23股价表现报TableQuotePic券TheCompanysnewly-signedordersincreasedIn1H23theaggregate500ofreturn究valueofnewly-signedordersoftheCompanyamountedtoRMB3167billion400研representinganincreaseof1049YoYamongwhichthevalueof300研究newly-signedordersinrailwaysectoramountedtoRMB978billion200券representinganincreaseof3015YoYthevalueofnewly-signedordersin100报urbantransitsectoramountedtoRMB585billionrepresentingadecreaseof00告证957YoYTheincreaseinneworderswillensurerevenuegrowthforthe100EquityResearchReportCompanyinthenexttwoyearsTheCompanysordercycleisabout3years200and97ofthesaleswillberecognizedasrevenueinabout2yearsAs300ChinarailpassengertraffichasbeenimprovingsignificantlywebelievethatAug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23Aug-23TabnewordersoftheCompanywillmaintainrapidgrowthThereforeweexpectHSIindexChinaCRSCthatoptimisticgrowthofnewordersmaybereflectedinrevenuegrowthinleI2024and2025TablePriceChangenfo1TheCompanyperformedwellinoverseasmarketsTheCompanysChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Yrevenuefromoverseasbusinessin1H23wasRMB586millionincreasedby股价变动1个月3个月1年659YoYmainlybecausetheCompanycontinuedtopushforwardtheAbs7717569机绝对变动progressofoverseasprojectssuchastheNoviSad-Suboticasectionofthe械ReltoHSIndex06149163Hungary-SerbiaRailwayandtheJakarta-BandungHigh-speedRailway相对恒指变动行AvgsharepriceHKBesidesthevalueofnewly-signedordersinoverseassectoramountedto282926平均股价港元业RMB1384millionrepresentinganincreaseof239011YoYAlthoughtheSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalproportionofoverseasbusinessrevenueissmallwebelievethatasmoreMachinerySectorandmoreoverseasprojectscompletetheCompanysoverseasrevenuewillcontinuetogrowrapidlyRisksIntensifiedcompetitionintheindustryinsufficientoverseasdemandunexpectedpricemovementinrawmaterialsTablYearTableEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEProfiteInf年结收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMBo22021A3835832750298130110411308017052762022A402203634033412293428007017055822023F4190939010360759044780701835684中2024F47273429003961028247010702016288国2025F52237476004411127349500702236993通TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m105898Majorshareholder大股东CRSCCorporationGroup624号MarketcapHKm市值HKm27851Freefloat自由流通比率3763monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数00037323FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金NetCash52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK36902130China03969CRSCHKSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4TablePageHeaderChinaCRSC03969HKTable-1TheCompanysgrossprofitmarginincreasedin1H231raMthgiRelbaTRMBmn1H231H22YoYRevenue166331838395Grossprofit4151426326Shareholdersprofit1824193457GrossProfitMargin25023218pptsNetProfitMargin11010505pptsSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalAugust282023Table-2TheweightedaveragePEratiosoftheCompanyspeersis100xMarketCapPEfiscalyearPBfiscalyearROEDYEVEBITDACompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastPriceHKDmn22A23F24F25F22A23F24F25F23F24F25FH-sharePeersChinaRailwaySignalCom-H3969HKHKD26305626268655851060505058474naZhuzhouCrrcTimesElectri-H3898HKHKD272505505513011810389101009088122126CrrcCorpLtd-H1766HKHKD38001807978081726306060606775873HaitianInternationalHldgs1882HKHKD17380276111051049283141413191353567LKTechnologyHoldingsLtd558HKHKD73201018516118913110027262218141051692raMthgiRelbaTChenHsongHoldings57HKHKD160010094777nana0303nana426326TkGroupHoldingsLtd2283HKHKD1400111752453630070606051589701JohnsonElectricHoldings179HKHKD1052099378377716605050505655826SanyHeavyEquipmentIntl631HKHKD113003717518314811382323328na20816naPrecisionTsugamiChinaCorp1651HKHKD80003046384668511111nana24411519CimcEnricHoldingsLtd3899HKHKD7430151111211129783151413121283551MorimatsuInternationalHold2155HKHKD571070827774594921161210244na48SimpleAverage95958268131212101345360WeightedAverage1051008269111110081024881SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational03969HKFigure-1TheCompanys12-MonthForwardPERatioisFigure-2TheCompanys12-MonthForwardPBRatioisatmeanlevelbelowmeanlevel中国通号12141112109108082raMthgiRelbaT7ChinaCRSC6065044023200Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Feb-18Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23Aug-17Nov-17Aug-18Nov-18Aug-19Nov-19Aug-20Aug-21Nov-21Aug-22Nov-22Aug-18Nov-18Aug-19Nov-19Aug-20Nov-20Aug-21Nov-21Aug-22Nov-22Aug-23Nov-20Aug-23Aug-17Nov-17May-19May-20May-21May-22May-23May-18May-19May-20May-21May-22May-23May-18FwdPEMeanFwdPBMean1SD-1SD1SD-1SDSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of4TablePageHeaderChinaCRSC03969HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue3835840220419094727352237Intangibleassets25302564271828813053Costofsales2984730681320393625639999Propertyplantandequipment46904581494753435771Deferredincometaxassets370474503533565Grossprofit8511953998701101712238Right-of-useassets17317418419520728August282023Othergainsincome451488483514593Others1314816594166731732017936Sellinganddistributionexpenses7978128949801084Totalnon-currentassets2091024387250252627227532GeneralandadministrativeCashcashequivalents2298322215237582783431838expenses40094221439549555474Inventories24932379259530233401Otherexpense224528161193276Tradeandbillsreceivables1985424386243712653228577Others4270343439451924701748918Operatingprofit39324466490354035996Totalcurrentassets880339242095917104406112734Financeincomeandcosts-net312238245252260Totalassets108943116807120941130677140266NetNon-operatingIncome3038404142Profitbeforetax42744743514856566256Tradeandbillspayables4875652148523245755762220Incometax581642746815885Contractliabilities72387705832189879706Otherpayables106414851570179219882raMthgiRelbaTProfitaftertax36934101440248415372Bankborrowings76261282305329Non-controllinginterest418467501551612Others23623643393542494589Shareholdersprofitloss32753634390142904760Totalcurrentliabilities5949565242664327289078832BasicEPSRMB02980334036003960441Deferredincome160215232251271Bankborrowings31283291355438384145Others788781843911983TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementTotalnon-currentliabilities40764286462950005400Totalliabilities6357169529710627788984232Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FProfitbeforetax36934101440248415372Sharecapital1059010590105901059010590Depreciationamortization392328599642689Sharereservesandretained3296534734368353919241826Changesinworkingcapital15543419340011941624earnings03969HKOtheradjustments2381073217219220Totalshareholdersequity4355545324474244978152416Cashfromoperatingactivities27692082138440704217Minorityinterest18171954245530063618Totalequity4537147278498805278856034中国通号Capitalexpenditure870708119812841377Otherinvestingactivities388557257265274Cashfrominvestingactivities125815194110191103TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatios2raMthgiRelbaTChinaCRSCNetchangesinborrowings8661268766828894Dividendspaid26332321180019332125Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FOtherfinancingactivities3061366288929443002Grossmargin221222237236233Cashfromfinancingactivities20732419392340504234Operatingmargin119103111117114Netmargin9585909391Netchangesincash56248834809981121ROE9176828488Cashatbegofyear1818517596222152375827834ROA4032353537Effectofexchangeratechanges27134000NetgearingratioNetNetNetNetNetAddNon-pledgedTimeDeposits53874974502350745124CashCashCashCashCashover3MCashatEndofYear2298322215237582783431838SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of4TablePageHeaderChinaCRSC03969HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingRatingDefinitionDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5August282023orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months03969HK5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies中国通号DISCLAIMER2raMthgiRelbaTChinaCRSCThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of4