点评
　　4日工业硅震荡偏强，主力2310收于13845元/吨，日内涨幅0.73%，持仓量减仓4115手至52666手。百川硅参考价14012元/吨，较上个交易日持稳。其中#553各地价格区间涨至13300-14150元/吨，#421价格区间涨至15050-15400元/吨。最低交割品#421价格13050元/吨，现货贴水710元/吨。大厂停炉带领硅厂挺价，下游清库获得阶段性进展，增加原料采购意愿，带动市场活跃度提升。进入首个交割月，期限优势助力下以云南为主社库大幅向交割库转移，仓单量攀升同时消化部分现货需求。供需边际维持增量，供给量延续新高，迈入旺季周期后有机板块初现改善信号，晶硅市场不断炒作预期向好，需求展现较强韧性。预计期限劈叉格局有望延续，现货温而不热或仍有上行动力、仓单堆积下远月盘面存在压力。值得关注目前期现交易重心向北转移、且仓单增速逐步放缓，接下来涨势重点看终端消费实质性表现。

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年9月5日一研究观点点评4日工业硅震荡偏强主力2310收于13845元吨日内涨幅073持仓量减仓4115手至52666手百川硅参考价14012元吨较上个交易日持稳其中553各地价格区间涨至13300-14150元吨421价格区间涨至15050-15400元吨最低交割品421价格13050元吨现货贴水710元吨大厂停炉带领硅厂挺价下游清库获得阶段性进展增加原料采购意愿带动市场活跃度提升进入首个交割月期限优势助力下以云南为主社库大幅向交割库转移仓单量攀升同时消化部分现货需求供需边际维持增量供给量延续新高迈入旺季周期后有机板块初现改善信号晶硅市场不断炒作预期向好需求展现较强韧性预计期限劈叉格局有望延续现货温而不热或仍有上行动力仓单堆积下远月盘面存在压力值得关注目前期现交易重心向北转移且仓单增速逐步放缓接下来涨势重点看终端消费实质性表现请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅202394202391涨跌SI00GFE137601368080期货结算价元吨SI01GFE138451380540不通氧553硅华东1365013550100不通氧553硅黄埔港1360013500100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1355013450100元吨不通氧553硅昆明1355013450100不通氧553硅四川133001325050不通氧553硅上海1405013950100通氧553硅华东1415014050100通氧553现货价格通氧553硅黄埔港1415014050100元吨通氧553硅天津港1410014000100通氧553硅昆明14050140500421硅华东150501500050421硅有机硅用华东154001535050421硅黄埔港151001505050421现货价格元421硅天津港151001505050吨421硅昆明15150151500421硅有机硅用昆明15400154000421硅四川15400154000无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东1365013550100不通氧553硅黄埔港1375013650100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1365013550100元吨不通氧553硅昆明1405013950100市场行情不通氧553硅四川138501380050421硅华东150501500050421硅有机硅用华东154001535050421硅黄埔港152501520050421现货价格元421硅天津港152001515050吨421硅昆明15650156500421硅有机硅用昆明15900159000421硅四川15950159500现货553与421价差175017500按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格130501300050现货升贴水-710-680-30下游DMC华东市场13400134000DMC东岳有机硅13600136000DMC合盛硅业13600136000有机硅元吨生胶13600136000107胶14100141000二甲基硅油15800158000复投料单晶用80000800000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用78000780000菜花料单晶用76000760000硅片元片单晶M6M10G12305335434305335434000000000电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G12061076075061076075000000000单晶perc单面166182210116122125116122125000000000光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面166182210117123125117123125000000000本周上周涨跌黄埔港3900040000-1000天津港36000360000工业硅吨社会昆明港34000300004000库存厂库1236001204603140DMC吨厂库44200421002100多晶硅吨厂库6115072250-11100资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧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图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-6000020207220211520212320232720233820234720236920221220222120223320224220225220226120227120207312020831202092920201152020124202131120214122021514202161520217142021812202191020221182022223202232420224262022530202262920227282022826202292720221122022121202351120237122023810202211720222162022318202241720225172022616202271620227312022815202283020229142022929202311220231272023211202322620233132023328202341220234272023512202352720236112023626202371120237262023810202382520211020202111182021121720221230202210142022102920221113202211282022121320221228图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州800400070035006003000500250040020003001500200100010050000202085202098202154202167202236202249202316202329202391202072202182202227202295202319202343202252202274202365202387202171120218142021917202213120225132022616202272020221232023315202341820211222021225202133120228232022926202352220236252023729202182320219132021104202112620221172022228202232120229262022117202313020232202023313202342420235152022411202252320226132022725202281520236262023717202382820201012202011152020121920211021202111242021122820221030202111152021122720221017202211282022121920211025资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价70000700006000060000500005000040000400003000030000200002000010000100000020214820216320225520233920235420207220215620217120224720226220232920234620236120212320221520229220238420207220216320219720225520228920234620207302020924202111420212112021729202192320221132022310202263020227282022922202311220236292023828202082720213112021826202221020228252023727202081920209122021227202141620215102021721202181420211012022129202231820224112022622202271620229262022127202321720233132023524202361720238282020726202010620211102021323202162720222222022529202312420234302023711202011192020121720211118202211172020102220211021202112162022102020221215202010302020112320211025202212312021111820211212202210202022111320201217图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲3500008090830000070762500000652000000541500000430310000020250000101000202192202273202319202337202221202257202353202386202198202245202261202279202341202359202375202181202227202294202323202192120211262022220202231120223302022526202261420228292022917202210620221222023326202341420236102023629202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