28日双硅盘面窄幅震荡。硅铁受到兰炭限产2/3的消息面影响，原材料上涨带动主力合约上涨势头趋缓。就成本端来看待，硅石、化工焦、电力持稳，港口锰矿阴跌较为严重，硅锰成本支撑弱，硅铁成本受兰炭影响相对较稳。本周硅铁供给端多地减产停工，开工率骤降，硅锰与之相反周产量依旧创新高，需求方面粗钢日熔量仍在上升，下游需求仍在缓慢修复，贸易商期现商拿货意愿一般，基本按需拿货，整体来看，库存历史高位的情况下，双硅基本面仍然偏空。硅铁受兰炭和减产影响较大，短期仍有上行趋势，但不建议追多，前期多单可以继续持有，硅锰短期受黑色震荡明显，可以逢高布空单。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报2023329品种日内观点28日双硅盘面窄幅震荡硅铁受到兰炭限产23的消息面影响原材料上涨带动主力合约上涨势头趋缓硅铁就成本端来看待硅石化工焦电力持稳港口锰矿阴跌较为严重硅锰成本支撑弱硅铁成本受兰炭影响相对较稳本周硅铁供给端多地减产停工开工率骤降硅锰与之相反周产量依旧创新高需求方面粗钢日熔量仍在上升下游需求仍在缓慢修复贸易商期现商拿货意愿一般基本按需拿货整体硅锰来看库存历史高位的情况下双硅基本面仍然偏空硅铁受兰炭和减产影响较大短期仍有上行趋势但不建议追多前期多单可以继续持有硅锰短期受黑色震荡明显可以逢高布空单产业链数据数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价75500硅铁2305结算价80846内蒙硅铁现价75000硅铁2309结算价79322期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价713763锰硅2305结算价737020内蒙锰硅现价73000锰硅2309结算价728020硅铁2305基差-534-6硅铁9-1价差5212硅铁2309基差-382-2硅铁5-9价差1524基差及价差锰硅2305基差-70-20锰硅9-1价差34-6锰硅2309基差20-20锰硅5-9价差900宁夏硅铁利润50850宁夏锰硅利润-350092563利润内蒙硅铁利润79450内蒙锰硅利润-189092510硅铁2305164万-14万锰硅2305158万-05万持仓情况硅铁230931万-01万锰硅230930万02万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202051202071202081202091202121202151202171202181202191202221202251202271202281202291202321202011202021202031202041202061202111202131202141202161202211202231202241202261202311202331202041202141202011202021202031202051202061202071202081202091202111202121202131202151202161202171202181202191202211202221202231202241202251202261202271202281202291202311202321202331202010120201112021101202111120221012022111202012120211212022121202010120201112020121202110120211112021121202210120221112022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁09合约基差SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差8000700060006000500040004000300020002000100000-1000-2000-2000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰09合约基差SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差4000400035003000300025002000200015001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图9硅铁9-1价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925002000150010005000-500-1000-1500-2000916101611161216116216316416图11硅锰9-1价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23095001500400300100020010050000-100-200-500-300-400-1000117217317417517617717817917918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途