维持“买入”评级，但下调目标价至24.60港元。我们预测海天国际（“公司”）2023/2024/2025年股东净利润分别同比增长17.0%、12.6%、10.0%，公司2023/2024/2025年每股盈利分别为人民币1.660元、1.869元、2.056元。我们目标价对应13.0倍/11.6倍/10.5倍2023-2025年市盈率。尽管我们认为中国经济正处在复苏的过程中，但2023年1季度下游需求的恢复略低于我们预期，因此我们下调了公司的盈利预测和目标价。维持“收集”评级，给予目标价。
　　公司2022年业绩符合我们预期，我们预计公司2023年业绩将积极反弹。受中国防疫政策和需求萎缩的影响，公司2022年业绩表现不佳。但我们认为随着中国宏观政策调整，中国经济在2023年将持续复苏。房地产行业将逐渐改善，带动下游行业对注塑机的需求。我们认为公司作为注塑机行业龙头将取得好于行业平均的增长。
　　海外市场需求维持强劲，公司持续拓展海外市场。2022年海外销售占比上升至35.7%。2023年1季度海外订单继续维持快速增长。尽管2023年海外需求存在不确定性，但从长期看，公司积极参与全球市场有助于公司拓展市场份额，取得稳健增长。
　　催化剂：下游需求复苏、原材料价格下行、公司产能利用率提升。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleAlexBai白舸CompanyReportHaitianInternational01882HK究85225097202EquityResearch公司报告海天国际01882HKgebaigtjascomhk23March2023DownstreamTableSummaryDemandIsGraduallyRecoveringtheCompanysPerformanceWillContinueToImproveMaintainBuy下游需求逐渐复苏公司业绩将持续改善维持买入公MaintainBuybutlowerTPtoHK2460WeforecastHaitian司InternationalstheCompanyshareholdersnetprofitin202320242025RatingTableRankBuytoincreaseYoYby170126and100respectivelyWeforecasttheMaintained报Companysearningspersharein202320242025tobeRMB1660评级买入维持告RMB1869andRMB2056respectivelyOurTPrepresents130x116xCompanyReport105x2023-2025PEratioAlthoughwebelievethatChinaseconomyisintheprocessofrecoverytherecoveryofdownstreamdemandin1Q2023was6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK2460slightlylowerthanourexpectationsoweloweredtheCompanysearningsRevisedfrom原目标价HK2690forecastandtargetpriceShareprice股价HK19240TheCompanysperformancein2022wasinlinewithourexpectationsandweexpecttheCompanysperformancein2023torebound告positivelyAffectedbyChinasepidemicpreventionpolicyandshrinking证Stockperformance报demandtheCompanysperformancein2022waspoorHoweverwebelieve股价表现券thatwiththeadjustmentinChinasmacropolicytheChineseeconomywill究TableQuotePiccontinuetorecoverin2023Therealestateindustrywillgraduallyimprove研400ofreturn研whichwilldrivedemandforinjectionmoldingmachinesindownstream300究industriesWebelievethattheCompanyasaleaderintheinjectionmolding券machineindustrywillachievebettergrowththantheindustryaverage200报100证DemandinoverseasmarketsremainsstrongandtheCompany告continuestoexpandinoverseasmarketsIn2022theproportionof00EquityResearchReportoverseassalesincreasedto357In1Q2023overseasorderscontinuedto100growrapidlyAlthoughthereareuncertaintiesinoverseasdemandin2023in200thelongruntheCompanysactiveparticipationintheglobalmarketwillhelp300TabtheCompanyexpanditsmarketshareandachievesteadygrowth400leICatalystsDownstreamdemandrecoveryrawmaterialpricedropsincreaseMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23intheCompanyscapacityutilizationHSIindexHaitianInternationalnfo1维持买入评级但下调目标价至港元我们预测海天国际公司2460202320242025年股东净利润分别同比增长170126100公司202320242025年每股盈利分机别为人民币1660元1869元2056元我们目标价对应130倍116倍105倍ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y械2023-2025年市盈率尽管我们认为中国经济正处在复苏的过程中但2023年1季度下股价变动1个月3个月1年行游需求的恢复略低于我们预期因此我们下调了公司的盈利预测和目标价Abs40维持收集评级给予目标价21351119港元我们预测公司202220232024年的股东净利润分别同比增长188279203公司202220232024年每股盈利分别为人民币0516元人民币0658元人民币0790元我们目标价对应191倍150倍125倍的2022-2024年市盈率和22倍2022年市净率绝对变动业公司2022年业绩符合我们预期我们预计公司2023年业绩将积极反弹受中国防疫政策ReltoHSIndex082775和需求萎缩的影响公司2022年业绩表现不佳但我们认为随着中国宏观政策调整中相对恒指变动MachinerySectorAvgsharepriceHK国经济在2023年将持续复苏房地产行业将逐渐改善带动下游行业对注塑机的需求209219193平均股价港元我们认为公司作为注塑机行业龙头将取得好于行业平均的增长SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational海外市场需求维持强劲公司持续拓展海外市场2022年海外销售占比上升至3572023年1季度海外订单继续维持快速增长尽管2023年海外需求存在不确定性但从长期看公司积极参与全球市场有助于公司拓展市场份额取得稳健增长催化剂下游需求复苏原材料价格下行公司产能利用率提升TableInfYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEo2年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB2021A160183052191227890998417054632199海2022A12308226514192581141065915077348137天2023F13987265016601701021183714048128148国2024F15609298318691269113143130563331502025F1721232822056100821456512063437148际TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m15960Majorshareholder大股东SkyTreasureCapitalLimited272MarketcapHKm市值HKm371868Freefloat自由流通比率3983monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数00014669FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金NetcashHaitianInternational01882HKHaitian01882International52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK2365013900SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6TablePageHeaderHaitianInternational01882HKInvestmentTheme1raMthgiRelbaTTheCompanysperformancein2022isinlinewithourexpectationsandweexpecttheCompanysperformancein2023toreboundpositivelyAffectedbyChinasepidemicpreventionpolicyandshrinkingdemandtheCompanysperformancein2022waspoorTheCompanysrevenuein2022decreasedby232YoYanditsnetprofitdecreasedby209YoYNeverthelesswebelievethattheunfavorablefactorsaffectingtheCompanysperformancewillgraduallyfadein2023TheadjustmentinChinasmacropolicywillbeconducivetothecontinuedrecoveryofChinaseconomyin2023TherealestateindustrywillgraduallyimprovewhichwilldrivedemandforinjectionmoldingmachinesindownstreamindustriesTheinjection23March2023moldingmachineindustryhasastrongcorrelationwiththemacroeconomicenvironmentWebelievethattheinjectionmoldingmachineindustrywillbenefitfromtherecoveryofChinaseconomyandtheCompanyastheleaderintheinjectionmoldingmachineindustrywillachievebettergrowththantheindustryaverageTable-1TheCompanysfinancialdatain202220212022YoYRevenuebyregionRMBmnMainlandChina110887916286HongKongandoverseascountries49304392109KeyfinancialdataRMBmn2raMthgiRelbaTRevenue1601812308232Grossprofit51513918239EBIT36302649270Shareholdersprofit30522265258BasicEPSRMB19121419258SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalIn2023theCompanysgrossprofitmarginmayfurtherimproveIn2H2022withthedeclineinrawmaterialpricestheCompanysgrossprofitmarginimprovedsignificantlyTheCompanysgrossprofitmarginin2H2022increasedby24pptsto01882HK331Webelievethistrendmaycontinuein2023RawmaterialpricesmayremainatthecurrentlevelwhichwillhelptheCompanymaintainahighgrossprofitmarginOntheotherhanddrivenbydemandrecoverytheCompanyscapacityutilizationratewillcontinuetoimprovefurtherincreasingthegrossprofitmarginSupportedbytheincreaseingrossprofit海天国际marginweexpecttheCompanysnetprofittogrowfasterthanrevenuein2023TheCompanysnewgenerationofmachineswillenhanceitscompetitivenessTheCompanywilllaunchthefifth-generationinjectionmoldingmachinesinAprilandstartmassproductioninJuneTheCompanysnewgenerationmachinescontinuetoimproveintermsofequipmentaccuracyefficiencyandstabilityandsave2energyraMbyth20g-30iRcomparedelbaTHaitianInternationalwiththethird-generationmachinesTheCompanyexpectsthatthefifth-generationmachineswillmaintainthesamepriceasthethird-generationmachinesandthegrossprofitmarginwillremainstableWebelievethattheCompanysnewgenerationmachineswillbeverycompetitivewhichwillhelptheCompanyfurtherexpanditsmarketshareDemandinoverseasmarketsremainsstrongandtheCompanycontinuestoexpandinoverseasmarketsIn2022theproportionofoverseassalesincreasedto357In1Q2023overseasorderscontinuedtogrowrapidlyAlthoughthereareuncertaintiesinoverseasdemandin2023inthelongruntheCompanysactiveparticipationintheglobalmarketwillhelptheCompanyexpanditsmarketshareandachievesteadygrowthTheCompanysoperationsinoverseasmarketswillfurtherincreaseinthefutureandthedeliverycapacityoftheMexicanfactorywillcontinuetoimproveTheCompanycontinuedtodeployoverseasmanufacturingbasesThedeliverycapacityoftheMexicanfactorycontinuedtoimprovefurtherenhancingtheCompanysabilitytoexpandintotheNorthAmericanmarketInadditiontheCompanyispreparingforfutureoverseasfactoriesinSerbiaIndiaandMalaysiaWebelievethattheCompanysglobalpresencewilldiversifymarketrisksandenableittogainmoremarketshareinnewregionsTheCompanysperformancein2022wasunderpressurebutperformancein2023isworthlookingforwardtoWebelievethattheCompanysperformancein2023willimproveasChinasmacroeconomicenvironmentimprovesRecoveryinCompanyReportChinasdownstreamdemandwillbecomethemainpositivefactortoboosttheCompanysstockpriceWeareoptimisticaboutSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of6TablePageHeaderHaitianInternational01882HKtheCompanyssharepriceperformanceoverthenext6-12months1raMthgiRelbaTChinasmacropolicesmaygraduallystarttoaffecttheCompanyin2023andboosttheCompanysrevenuein2023ThereforeweforecasttheCompanysrevenuein2023-2025tobeRMB140billionRMB156billionRMB172billionrepresentingYoYgrowthrateof136116103respectivelyWeforecasttheCompanysgrossmarginin2023-2025tobe322325325respectivelyConsideringthattheCompanyisaleaderininjectionmoldingmachineswegivetheCompanyaPEratioof130xin2023representingpriceofHK246023March2023Table-2Keyassumptionsforfinancialforecasts2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FKeyfinancialdataRMBmnRevenue1180016018127021478516552Grossprofit40405151390347895360EBIT28993630267533713772Shareholdersnetprofit23883052227828353164BasicEPSRMB14961912142717761982SourceGuotaiJunanInternational2raMthgiRelbaTTable-3PeerscomparisonMarketCapPEfiscalyearPBfiscalyearROEDYEVEBITDACompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastPriceHKDmn22A23F24F25F22A23F24F25F23F24F25FH-sharePeersHaitianInternationalHldgs01882HKHKD19240317921161028981161413121453371LKTechnologyHoldingsLtd00558HKHKD9380126352062201561283531262214611140ChenHsongHoldings00057HKHKD1790112953nanana04nanananananaTkGroupHoldingsLtd02283HKHKD15801317614536na070706na1609226JohnsonElectricHoldings00179HKHKD90308358716458550404040468432001882HKSanyHeavyEquipmentIntl00631HKHKD8100258911311189983232025na18826naPrecisionTsugamiChinaCorp01651HKHKD795029893750483611nanana21461naCimcEnricHoldingsLtd03899HKHKD8280163071381159781161514na1343863海天国际MorimatsuInternationalHold02155HKHKD980011250132121977536241812250na77SimpleAverage1051058577171615121634366WeightedAverage1281189783201817131603275A-sharePeers2raMthgiRelbaTHaitianInternationalYizumiHoldingsCoL-A300415CHCNY2125011327223166127na4034282519921130KraussmaffeiCoLtd-A600579CHCNY65703703nananananananananananaTedericMachineryCoLtd-A603289CHCNY108503608nananananananananananaNingboHaitianPrecisionM-A601882CHCNY31400187243142602111728365524125713naShenzhenChanghongTechnol-A300151CHCNY1968011219nananananananananananaNingboTechmationCoLtd-A603015CHCNY77803605nananananananananananaGuangdongJinmingMachiner-A300281CHCNY55602654nananana18nanananananaNingboHenghePrecisionIn-A300539CHCNY130303322nananananananananananaSimpleAverage2682131691724749403322817130WeightedAverage2802251791726353433523516130GlobalPeersSumitomoHeavyIndustries6302JPJPY3085000228988686817607060606764044NisseiPlasticIndustrialCo6293JPJPY1006000133973nanana05nanananananaToyoMachineryMetalCo6210JPJPY60200075097nanana06nanananananaFujiSeikiCoLtd6400JPJPY32300017677nanana09nanananananaAltechCoLtd9972JPJPY27300025197nanana03nanananananaCompanyReportSyncmoldEnterpriseCorp1582TTTWD603001925201nanana13nanananananaSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of6TablePageHeaderHaitianInternational01882HKFuChunShinMachineryManuf6603TTTWD17700712169nanananananananananaWoojinPlaimmCoLtd049800KSKRW3660000449nananananana1rnaaMnathnagiRnaelnabaTSimpleAverage11486817607060606764044WeightedAverage9686817607060606764044SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalRiskFactors23March2023DownstreamrecoverymaybelessthanexpectedUnderthecircumstancesthattheglobaleconomyisfacinggreaterpressurerecoveryofdownstreamindustriesmaybelessthanexpecteddraggingdownperformanceoftheCompanysrelatedbusinessesProgressoftheCompanysoverseasmarketexpansionmaybelessthanexpectedTheCompanysexpansioninglobalmarketsmayfacechallengeswhichwillaffecttheCompanysperformanceoverseas2raMthgiRelbaT01882HK海天国际2raMthgiRelbaTHaitianInternationalCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of6TablePageHeaderHaitianInternational01882HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalrevenue1601812308139871560917212Intangibleassets5251545861Costofsales-10867-8391-9477-10537-11621Propertyplantandequipment43665462500353405744Deferredincometaxassets208208221234248Grossprofit51513918451050725591Right-of-useassets70471976280885623March2023Othergainsincome293514519523567Others30722658165817451836Sellinganddistributionexpenses-1036-1002-1050-1135-1260Totalnon-currentassets84029099769881848746Generalandadministrativeexpenses-812-797-883-959-1041Cashcashequivalents359335917005853210201Inventories30103151349938474212Operatingprofit35972632309635023858Tradeandbillsreceivables35073175369641954673Financeincomeandcosts-net139131135139143Others76426776698672057431Totalcurrentassets1775116693211862377926518Profitbeforetax37692779327036834047Totalassets2615325791288843196335263Incometax-719-514-621-700-766Tradeandbillspayables42223574397844004848Profitaftertax30502265264929833281Contractliabilities10891353153817161893Non-controllinginterest-20-0-0-1Accrualsandotherpayables185117401894205222223052226526502983328218612ra1323Mth1503giR1678elb1850aTShareholdersprofitlossBankborrowingsOthers319245240267295BasicEPSRMB19121419166018692056Totalcurrentliabilities9342823591541011411107Deferredincometaxliabilities527362391422456TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementBankborrowings3001123733733734942464953Others876516810845882Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalnon-currentliabilities10218875199631095811989Profitbeforetax37692779327036834047TotalliabilitiesDepreciationamortization30933735737940682-1049811-143-102Sharecapital161161161161161Changesinworkingcapital01882HK1577416851187322081623086Incometaxandinterestpaid-575-766-537-612-673Sharereservesandretainedearnings1593417011188922097723246Otheradjustments-460-5-169-92-98Totalshareholdersequity31241296373132153579Minorityinterest129282828Cashfromoperatingactivities海天国际1593517040189212100523274TotalequityPurchaseofPPE-924-743-663-757-854Others-13422021-18-206-216Totalequityliabilities2615325791288843196335263Cashfrominvestingactivities-22661278-681-963-1071866-913702174172TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosNetchangeinborrowings2raMthgiRelbaTHaitianInternationalDividendspaid-1875-1233-768-899-1012Others-200002021A2022A2023F2024F2025FCashfromfinancingactivities-1012-2147-66-725-840Grossmargin322318322325325EBITDAmargin246241247248248Netchangesincash-154428298415281669Operatingmargin225214221224224Cashatbeginningofyear37463593402170058532Netmargin191184189191191Cashatendofyear359340217005853210201ROE199137148150148ROA11983939494SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of6TablePageHeaderHaitianInternational01882HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to523March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthis01882HKResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearch海天国际Report6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMER2raMthgiRelbaTHaitianInternationalThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of6