我们上调目标价至5.15港元并维持“买入”的投资评级。我们预测2023-2025财年的每股盈利为人民币0.372/ 0.414/ 0.457元。由于公司在数字化转型的显著成果，我们上调目标价并维持“买入”的投资评级。
　　我们预计公司的盈利和派息将持续上升。中国电信2022财年业绩符合预期。服务收入同比上升8.0%，而可比口径股东净利同比上升12.5%。同时，公司计划将2022全年派息率同比提升5个百分点至65%。我们预计移动服务和固网宽带业务将继续稳定增长，而2023年的股东净利将实现两位数百分比的同比增长。我们预计2023年派息率将达到约70%。
　　我们预计云业务发展将会超过市场预期。2022年，天翼云收入同比增长108%至人民币579亿元。公司计划在2023年将其云业务拓展至人民币1,000亿元，高于市场预期。我们预计公司将大力投入核心技术研发，加上强劲的市场需求、庞大的客户基础、云网融合优势、数据安全优势，以及大规模的投资（公司计划2023年投资云资源人民币195亿元），我们预计云业务或将超出市场预期。
　　催化剂：派息率的上升，数据要素相关业务的推进。
　　风险提示：产业互联网业务增速慢于预期；投入与效益不匹配。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleGinYu余劲同CompanyReportChinaTelecom00728HK究8675523976686EquityResearch公司报告中国电信00728HKginyugtjascomhk24March2023ProfitTableSGuideummaryDouble-DigitGrowthCloudBusinessGuidanceBeatExpectationsBuy盈利指引双位数增长云业务指引超预期买入公WeupgradetheTPtoHK515andmaintaintheinvestmentratingasTableRank司BuyWeforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB0372RMB0414RatingBuyRMB0457respectivelyDuetoremarkableresultsindigitaltransformationMaintained报weupgradetheTPandmaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuy评级买入维持告WeexpecttheCompanysearningsanddividendpayouttoincreaseCompanyReportcontinuouslyChinaTelecomsFY22resultswereinlinewithexpectationsServicerevenueincreasedby80yoywhileshareholdersnetprofitwasup6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK515by125yoyonacomparablebasisMeanwhiletheCompanyproposedtoHK355increasethewholeyeardividendpayoutratioof2022by5pptyoyto65WeShareprice股价HK4160expectmobileserviceandfixed-linebroadbandbusinesstoincreasesteadily告whileshareholdersnetprofittoachievedouble-digitpercentageyoygrowthin证2023Weexpectdividendpayoutratiotoreachabout70in2023Stockperformance报Weexpectthedevelopmentofcloudbusinesstoexceedmarket股价表现券Report究expectationsIn2022ChinaTelecomcloudrevenueincreasedby108TableQuotePic800ofreturn研yoytoRMB579billionTheCompanyaimstoexpanditscloudbusinessto研reachRMB100billionin2023higherthanmarketexpectationsWeexpect600究theCompanytoinvestheavilyinresearchanddevelopmentofcore券400报technologiescoupledwithstrongmarketdemandhugecustomerbase200告证advantagesincloud-networkintegrationadvantagesindatasecurityaswellEquityResearchasthelargescaleinvestmentstheCompanyplanstoinvestRMB195billion00incloudresourcesin2023weexpectthatcloudbusinessmayexceedmarketexpectations200TabCatalystsIncreaseindividendpayoutratiopromotionofbusiness400data-relatedbusinessMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23leIHSIIndexChinaTelecomRiskwarningSlower-than-expectedgrowthofindustryinternetbusinessnfo1mismatchbetweeninvestmentsandbenefitsTablePriceChange我们上调目标价至515港元并维持买入的投资评级我们预测2023-2025财年的每ChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y股盈利为人民币037204140457元由于公司在数字化转型的显著成果我们上调目股价变动1个月3个月1年通Abs标价并维持买入的投资评级64264342信绝对变动ReltoHSIndex我们预计公司的盈利和派息将持续上升中国电信2022财年业绩符合预期服务收入同比79241437行相对恒指变动上升而可比口径股东净利同比上升同时公司计划将全年派息率同801252022AvgSharepriceHK423830业比提升个百分点至我们预计移动服务和固网宽带业务将继续稳定增长而年平均股价港元5652023SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational的股东净利将实现两位数百分比的同比增长我们预计2023年派息率将达到约70我们预计云业务发展将会超过市场预期2022年天翼云收入同比增长108至人民币TelecommunicationsSector579亿元公司计划在2023年将其云业务拓展至人民币1000亿元高于市场预期我们预计公司将大力投入核心技术研发加上强劲的市场需求庞大的客户基础云网融合优势数据安全优势以及大规模的投资公司计划2023年投资云资源人民币195亿元我们预计云业务或将超出市场预期催化剂派息率的上升数据要素相关业务的推进Tab风险提示产业互联网业务增速慢于预期投入与效益不匹配leIYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEProfit年结收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率nfo21231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB2021A439553259510307190110507707017050652022A4814482759303276511651170701965264中2023F5312013138203721389752760702406772国2024F5677573499904141138754310702777777电2025F6003213861504571040055870003160083信Sharesinissuem总股数m915071Majorshareholder大股东ChinaTelecomCorporation636TableBaseDataMarketcapHKm市值HKm3806695Freefloat自由流通比率3643monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数0001305716FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金NetCashChina00728HKTelecom52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK45302620FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元62SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5TablePageHeaderChinaTelecom00728HKWeupgradeTPtoHK515andmaintainChinaTelecomstheCompanyinvestmentratingasBuyWeforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB0372RMB0414RMB0457respectivelyDuetotheremarkable1rresultsaMtindigitalhgitransformationRelbaTweupgradetheTPandmaintaintheinvestmentratingasBuyOurTPcorrespondsto122x109x99xFY23-FY25PERChinaTelecomsFY22resultswereinlinewithourexpectationsRevenueincreasedby95yoytoRMB481billionofwhichservicerevenueincreasedby80yoyAmongthisindustrydigitalizationservicerevenueincreasedsharplyby197yoyanditsproportiontototalservicerevenueisexpectedtoreach35in2025Shareholdersnetprofitincreasedby63yoytoRMB276billionayoyincreaseof125onacomparablebasisMeanwhiletheCompanycontinuedtoincrease24March2023dividendpayoutandproposedfinaldividendpershareisRMB0196thusdividendpayoutratioisup5pptyoyto65WeexpecttheCompanysearningsanddividendpayouttoincreasecontinuouslyIn2022thenumberofmobilesubscribersincreasedby1875millionto3912millionwhilemobileARPUbasicallyremainedstableyoyThenumberoffixed-linebroadbandsubscribersincreasedby1119millionto1809millionwhilefixed-linebroadbandblendedARPUslightlyincreasedby09yoywhichwaspromotedbysmartfamilybusinessIn2023theCompanyplanstoincreaseitscapitalexpendituretoRMB990billionupbyabout70yoywithinitCAPEXinmobilenetworkbroadbandnetworkaswellasoperatingsystemsandinfrastructureareexpectedtodeclineyoyby1616555whileCAPEXinindustrydigitalizationisexpectedtoincreaseby40yoyOverallweexpectgrowthinoperatingexpensestobelowerthanrevenuegrowthandshareholdersnetprofitgrowthin2023willbedoubledigitsThereforewecanseethatthe2CrompanysaMthgtraditionaliRemainlbaTbusinesshasalreadyenteredastageofhigh-qualitydevelopmentgiventhatthemajorityofprofitcomesfromtraditionalmainbusinessweexpecttheCompanysprofitgrowthtobestableBesidesweexpecttheCompanytostillraiseitsdividendpayoutratioanddividendpayoutratiowillbeabout70in2023thusgrowthindividendpayoutwillbehigherthangrowthofearningsWeexpectthedevelopmentofcloudbusinesstoexceedmarketexpectationsIn2022ChinaTelecomcloudrevenueincreasedby108yoytoRMB579billionTheCompanyaimstoexpanditscloudbusinesstoreachRMB100billionin2023higherthanmarketexpectationsCurrentlymarketdemandisstillstrongandthekeyissueistheCompanysownkeycoretechnicalcapabilitytheCompanyisexpectedtocontinuetostrengthenitscapabilitiesincloudcoretechnologyandplanstoinvestRMB195billionincloudresourcesin2023WeexpecttheCompanytoinvestheavilyinresearchanddevelopmentof00728HKcoretechnologiescoupledwithstrongmarketdemandhugecustomerbaseadvantagesofcloud-networkintegrationadvantagesindatasecurityaswellaslarge-scaleinvestmentsincomputingpowernetworkweexpectthatcloudbusinessmayexceedmarketexpectations中国电信CatalystsIncreaseindividendpayoutanddividendpayoutratiopromotionofbusinessdata-relatedbusinessRiskwarningSlower-than-expectedgrowthofindustryinternetbusinessmismatchbetweeninvestmentsandbenefitsChinaTelecomFigure-1ChinaTelecomsshareincloudmarketFigure-2Cloud-networkintegrationsystemReportCompanySourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of5TablePageHeaderChinaTelecom00728HKTable-1PeersComparisonMarketCapPERPBR1raMROEthgDYiReEVEBITDAlbaTCompanyTickerCurrencyPriceHKDMil23F24F25F23F24F25F23F23F23FHKListedCompaniesChinaMobileLtd00941HKHKD6360011113658680960909091068123ChinaTelecomCorpLtd-H00728HKHKD41603749271069485070707716639ChinaUnicomHongKongLtd00762HKHKD5730119333837263040404556510PccwLtd00008HKHKD395032352263359035046468234986724March2023HktTrustAndHktLtd-Ss06823HKHKD10340829221571511472222231397491SimpleAverage928281070707777124WeightedAverage928490080808917527USListedCompaniesAtTIncTUSUSD1839010068787674721211101676162VerizonCommunicationsIncVZUSUSD3731014683478080791614122067163T-MobileUsIncTMUSUSUSD14346014232422041471072626271280085SimpleAverage1201008618171616744702raMthgiRelbaTWeightedAverage126103881918171664171JapanKRListedCompaniesNipponTelegraphTelephone9432JPJPY39880007841011151081021615131433165KddiCorp9433JPJPY40410005540581301221151716151343357SkTelecom017670KSKRW47800000530907958778090809927234SimpleAverage1221151081615141393261WeightedAverage1211141071615141403262EUListedCompaniesVodafoneGroupPlcVODLNGBp909603223911001099805050553874700728HKBtGroupPlcBTALNGBp1401507537956975720909081235641DeutscheTelekomAg-RegDTEGREUR218101297201331171042121201523566OrangeORAFPEUR10830198092938882090908936748中国电信TelefonicaSaTEFSMEUR382821592011210290090909777853KoninklijkeKpnNvKPNNAEUR32391521071761641483937342044776TelenorAsaTELNONOK121450379531751541404044322747862SimpleAverage1231161051919171396456ChinaTelecomWeightedAverage1231131021818161355459OtherDevelopedMarketBceIncBCECNCAD602102550601881761612726261526488TelusCorpTCNCAD270202361941542423231025488SaudiTelecomCoSTCABSAR388001451341252524na1805175EmiratesTelecomGroupCoEANDUHAED236802062001914341402193487TelstraGroupLtdTLSAUAUD41902542302113131311204178SingaporeTelecommunicationsSTSPSGD24002464081761511311414137955128SimpleAverage2011811622726261425091WeightedAverage1961791622928281544889OverallAverage1311191091717161335260ReportOverallWeightedAverage1311191101817171375061SourceBloombergCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of5TablePageHeaderChinaTelecom00728HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FMobilecommunicationsservice184158191026195867199930203155PPE413963413963420886431883447065WirelineandSmartFamilyservice113522118534123212126714129671Constructioninprogress5844358443640326833872218IndustrialDigitalisationservice98945117756150632173952195294Intangibleassetsandgoodwill5070250702521935345254575Otherservice62037612799383128645Right-of-useassets870558705595761103421109627Salesofproductsandothers3672546520534985884863556Interestinassociates422204222044388469254990024March2023TotalRevenue439553481448531201567757600321Deferredtaxassets38213821420346235086Othernon-currentassets1042210422109131142711966Depreciationamortization9296696932100226103247106327TotalNon-currentAssets666626666626692376720069750436Networkoperationsupport133340147589166241179136190015Sellinggeneraladministration6115464277697457379277563Inventories35133513368938734067Personnelexpenses760558477295541102800108963Accountsreceivable2431224312286852952330016ImpairmentlossonPPE00000Prepaymentothercurrentassets3375133751351013615436877Otheroperatingexpenses4508854451612366639870893Depositswithbanks38353835421944294651CashCashEquivalents7246572465802938518186696OperatingProfit3095033427382124238446560Othercurrentassets31963196175196216Shareofprofitfromassociates19662051216825362976TotalCurrentAssets141072141072152161159356162523Investmentincome2244243255268281TotalAssets8076988076988445378794259129592raMthgiRelbaTNetfinancecosts1293724157212ProfitBeforeTax3386735714406594534650030Short-termdebt28402840289729553014IncomeTax7716803891511020611260Long-termloanscurrentportion31603160293927332542ProfitAfterTax2615127676315083514038770Accountspayable127260127260140609151121160181Non-controllingInterest20083126141155Accrualsandotherpayables6522965229729717936085012ShareholdersProfitLoss2595127593313823499938615Contractliabilities6784167841644496316061897BasicEPS03070327037204140457Leaseliabilities1448814488152121597316772Othercurrentliabilities919919827744670TotalCurrentLiabilities281737281737299904316046330088TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022F2023F2024F2025FLong-termdebt44844484470849445191Profitbeforetax3571435714406594534650030Leaseliabilities5240852408545045668458952Deferredtaxliabilities00728HKDepreciationandamortization96932969321002261032471063272794527945297753181634068Netfinancecosts737324157212Othernon-currentliabilities46974697563667648116Othernon-cashitems3320433204153971866819276TotalNon-currentLiabilities895348953494624100208106327Workingcapitalchange3034530345143181631014932TotalLiabilities371271371271394528416254436415中国电信Netinterestexpensepaid13201320146916631782Taxpaid98979897736081989031Sharecapital9150791507915079150791507CashfromOperatingActivities121283121283133892139543144550Reserves340582340582354029367061380301TotalShareholdersEquity432089432089445536458568471808ChinaTelecomCAPEX925289252899000103950109148MinorityInterest43384338447346044737Others31353135482251895395TotalEquity436427436427450009463171476544CashfromInvestingActivities89393893939417898761103753TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosChangeindebts28922892281293306Dividendspaid15569155691793521967253752021A2022A2023F2024F2025FRepaymentsofPrincipalelementofEBITDAmargin308300290286285financeleasepayments1403514035140351403514035Operatingmargin7069727578Others118118123130136Netprofitmargin5957596264CashfromFinancingActivities3261432614318133583939239ROE6664727783ROA3535384143NetChangesinCash723723790149441558Currentratiox0505050505CashatBegofYear7328573285724658029385181NetgearingNetCash11NetCashNetCashNetCashFXchange9797735642CashatEndofYear7246572465802938518186696SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of5TablePageHeaderChinaTelecom00728HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to524March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months00728HK5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies中国电信DISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesChinaTelecomHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793ReportWebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of5