研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportEnergyOperationsSectorPeterShao邵俊樨行业报告能源运营行业85225095464petershaogtjascomhk20March2023TableMainInfoJan-Feb2023PowerDataReviewDemandCouldImprove行FurtherWindOutputGrowthOutperformed2023年1-2月电力数据点评需求有望进一步改善风电电量增速抢眼业报Jan-Feb2023PowerDataAccordingtoChinasNationalEnergyBureauNEAChinaspowerconsumptioninFeb2023grew110yoyandthatinRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告MaintainedSectorReportthefirsttwomonthsgrew23yoygenerationfrompowerplantsabovedesignatedscaleincreased07yoyduringthefirsttwomonthsoftheyear评级跑赢大市维持DemandgrowthwaslikelydistortedbyahighbaseeffectandawarmerwinterthisyearandweexpectittofurtherimprovegoingforwardBy2sectoryoypowerconsumptiongrowthinJan-Feb2023was62291-2M23powerconsumptioninChina-0227fortheprimaryindustrysecondaryindustrytertiaryindustrygrew23yoyresidentialsectorrespectivelyWebelievetherelativelyslowdemandgrowthinthefirsttwomonthswaslikelyduetoahighbaselastyearandawarmer20192020202120222023winterthisyear1inJan-Feb2022powerconsumptioninChinagrew5825yoytertiaryindustryresidentialsectorup72131respectively220accordingtotheChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationthetemperatureinJan证andFebwasgenerallywarmanddryandtheavgtemperaturewas1615告04higherinthesetwomonthsrespectivelyleadingtolesspowerdemand券10forheatingGoingforwardwebelievepowerdemandislikelytopickupas研报thehighbaseeffectshoulddissipateandindustrialactivityisshowingsigns5究究ofrecoveryChinaElectricityCouncilexpectspowerdemandtogrowby0around6yoyin202323ResearchReport报研-5Newenergyoutputmaintainedhighgrowthwhilethermaloutput告券growthturnednegativepotentiallyduetosqueezingeffectBy-10EquitygenerationsourceinJan-Feb2023outputgrowthofhydropowerandM2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12证thermalpowerturnednegativethatofnuclearpowersloweddownandthatSourceNEAWindGuotaiJunanInternationalofnewenergyacceleratedMorespecificallyduringthefirsttwomonthsthisyearoutputfromwindincreasedby304yoycomparedwithnegativegrowthinthesameperiodlastyearwhilesolaroutputwasup93yoy28pptsmorethanthegrowthrecordedinthesameperiodlastyearWebelievesuchhighgrowthwaslikelyduetobothbetterwindandsolarresourcessofarTthisyearandthegridconnectionofarelativelylargeamountofnewenergyacapacityconcentratedattheyearendIntermsofhydropoweroutputbdeclined34yoyinJan-Feb2023potentiallyduetolowerwaterreserve能andlessrainfallcomparedwiththesameperiodlastyear-howeveroutputin源lJan-Febwhichisthedryseasontendstohavelimitedimpactonthewhole运eyearsoutputanditremainstobeseenifwaterconditionscanimproveinthe营rainyseasonthisyearForthermalpoweroutputdropped23yoyin行Jan-Feb2023comparedwithgrowthof43yoyduringthesameperiod业Llastyear-thisislikelyduetothesqueezingeffectfromnewenergyoutputewhenpowerconsumptiongrowthwastepidfEnergySectorOperationsInvestmentsuggestionWemaintainOutperformforthesectoronthegrowthopportunitiesbroughtbyChinaspowersystemtransformationforbothtthermalandrenewablesIPPSAmongthermalIPPsundertransformationweMrecommendCPID02380HKBuyTPHK490andCRP00836HKaBuyTPHK1954amongrenewablesIPPswerecommendDTR01798HKBuyTPHK334rRisksDelayinnewenergyprojectroll-outsoaringcoalpricesghigher-than-expectedrawmaterialcostslower-than-expectedpoweridemandunfavourablechangesinregulationsandpoliciesforIPPsnSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of4SeSourceSourceSourcedropped02yoy02droppedyoy62grewFigureFigureFigure-20-1010152025301020304005e0theNEAWindGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEANEA---las421M2M2-t02201962111pagWind2019---2M23tertiary2M23consumptionindustrypowerprimary2M23consumptionindustrypower2M23M3M3efoGuotaiJunanJunanGuotairM4M4disclaimerpowerpowerconsumption2020M52020M5M6InternationalM6-1010152025-505M72021M7202123M2M8M82019inChinainM9M9M320222022M10M10M4Pgrew23yoyM11M1120202023M52023M12M12M62021M7101520-20-10grew29yoy29grewFigure27yoy27Figure102030050SourceSourceM8M227--29M235NEAWindGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEA112019M92019M32022--M32M23secondary2M23industryconsumptionpower2M23residential2M23consumptionpowergrewTablePageHeaderM4M10M4M52020M52020M112023M6M6M12M7M720212021M8M8nryprtosSectorOperationsEnergyM9M920222022M10M10M11M112023M12M122023PagePage2ofof42nigraMelbaT1nigraMelbaTSectorReportEnergyOperationsSector能源运营行业20March2023SeSourceSourceSourceFigureFigureFigure-15-10-10-10101520251020304050101520-5-5e05005theNEAWindGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEA---las-10860723M2M2M2302t201911pag20191--20192M23thermal2M23outputdeclined23yoy2M23-M3M3M32M232M23yoyoutputwindincreased23eforM4M4M4disclaimerChinas20202020M5M5M52020poweroutputpoweryoygrew07M6M6M62021M7M7M720212021M8M8M8M9M9M9202220222022M10M10M10PM11M11M1120232023M12M122023M12-15-10-10FigureFigureFigure10152025102030401015202530-5-505005SourceSourceSource---43M2M2M2939711-34NEAWindGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEANEAWindGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEAInternationalJunanGuotaiWindNEA201911201912019--M3M3M32M23nuclear2M23outputyoygrew43hydropower2M23yoy34droppedoutput-2M23output2M23so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