17日双硅盘面反弹，小幅收涨。从成本线来看，天津港巴西矿下调0.2元/吨度，其余冶金焦、硅石等价格持稳，兰炭价格下滑70元/吨，硅锰宁夏地区现货下调125元/吨，内蒙电价上周下调0.01元/度，对硅铁影响更大，双硅成本线重心下移，成本支撑弱，需求方面来看，房地产市场回暖带动钢材需求大幅回升，粗钢日熔量环比上涨17万吨，非钢需求来看，镁锭有所回升，整体铁合金下游需求缓慢修复，但依旧跟不上供给产出，整体库存还是位于高位缓慢累积。中长期宽松的格局难以反制，操作上可以轻仓做空。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报2023320品种日内观点17日双硅盘面反弹小幅收涨从成本线来看天津港巴西矿下调02元吨度其余冶金焦硅石等价硅铁格持稳兰炭价格下滑70元吨硅锰宁夏地区现货下调125元吨内蒙电价上周下调001元度对硅铁影响更大双硅成本线重心下移成本支撑弱需求方面来看房地产市场回暖带动钢材需求大幅回升粗钢日熔量环比上涨17万吨非钢需求来看镁锭有所回升整体铁合金下游需求缓慢修复但依硅锰旧跟不上供给产出整体库存还是位于高位缓慢累积中长期宽松的格局难以反制操作上可以轻仓做空产业链数据数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价75000硅铁2305结算价7826144内蒙硅铁现价75500硅铁2309结算价7756114期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价7125-125锰硅2305结算价734694内蒙锰硅现价73000锰硅2309结算价726080硅铁2305基差-326-144硅铁9-1价差10-6硅铁2309基差-256-114硅铁5-9价差7030基差及价差锰硅2305基差-46-94锰硅9-1价差3022锰硅2309基差40-80锰硅5-9价差8614宁夏硅铁利润452570宁夏锰硅利润-39987-125利润内蒙硅铁利润754570内蒙锰硅利润-20887-20硅铁2305199万-19万锰硅2305188万-33万持仓情况硅铁230926万-03万锰硅230915万-01万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202041202051202181202221202241202251202011202021202031202061202071202081202091202111202121202131202141202151202161202171202191202211202231202261202271202281202291202311202321202331202011202081202121202141202151202281202321202021202031202041202051202061202071202091202111202131202161202171202181202191202211202221202231202241202251202261202271202291202311202331202011120201212022111202212120201012021101202111120211212022101202111120211212020101202011120201212021101202210120221112022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润10000150080001000600050040000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁09合约基差SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差8000700060006000500040004000300020002000100000-1000-2000-2000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰09合约基差SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差4000400035003000300025002000200015001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图9硅铁9-1价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925002000150010005000-500-1000-1500-2000916101611161216116216316416图11硅锰9-1价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23095001500400300100020010050000-100-200-500-300-400-1000117217317417517617717817917918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途