五矿期货-农产品期权周报-230320

>> 五矿期货-农产品期权周报-230320

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研究报告全文：农产品期权周报期权研究2023年3月20日星期一基本面信息豆粕第10周大豆实际压榨量为13671万吨开机率为4594较预估高312万吨截止3月10日全国大豆港口库存为40718万吨较上周减少2426万吨豆粕库存为5761万吨较上周减少623万吨菜粕库存435万吨较上周减少012万吨大豆到港持续偏低提货略有好转本周蛋白粕库存止升转降但预计4月大豆大量到港后蛋白粕将进入累库周期大豆基本面来看南美天气问题交易至尾声阿根廷产量虽继续下调但对美豆转为底部支撑后续交易重心卢品先将转移至巴西收割压力及美国新作情况巴西收割进度虽同比仍偏慢但环比有所加快巴西大豆报价不断走低美豆出口数据不及预期均反应了市场对巴西丰产压力的担忧美豆上方压制明显投研经理棕榈油SPPOMA显示1-15日马来西亚棕榈油产量减少2908SGS显示1-15日马来西亚棕榈油出口增加59040755-23375252产量下滑主要受前期暴雨影响出口激增受斋月备货刺激3月马棕库存有小幅下滑可能基本面仍有支撑lupxwkqhcn从业资格号期权行情概要标的行情农产品玉米维持近三周以来的宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡豆粕前一周上升受阻回落后连续空头下F3047321行上周以来加速下跌市场行情空头情绪较浓棕榈油前一周持续大幅下挫后上周以来跌幅收窄低位弱势盘整交易咨询号震荡白糖经过前期的持续大幅上涨突破上行上周以来冲高回落快速下跌而中期趋势线方向仍向上棉花维持近Z0015541两周以来的弱势空头下行趋势截止收盘玉米C2305周跌幅046报收于2850豆粕M2305合约周跌跌幅309报收于3668棕榈油P2305周跌幅225报收于7752白糖SR305周跌幅237报收于6132棉花CF305周跌幅371报收于13885日均成交量上周农产品期权日均成交量除了白糖期权和棕榈油期权大幅减少以外其他农产品期权日均成交量不同程度的有所增加其中玉米期权增加371万张至1023万张豆粕期权增加211万张至1726万张棕榈油期权减少314万张至1074万张白糖期权减少356万张至2026万张棉花期权增加453万张至1552万张日均持仓量上周农产品期权日均持仓量普遍有所增加而农产品白糖期权和豆粕期权日均持仓量增加幅度较大其中玉米期权增加094万张至4090万张豆粕期权增加230万张至4941万张棕榈油期权增加069万张至1470万张白糖期权增加250万张至3449万张棉花期权增加091万张至3324万张隐含波动率上周农产品期权豆粕期权棉花期权隐含波动率大幅度上升棕榈油期权隐含波动率大幅拉升后快速下降白糖期权隐含波动率逐渐下降回落而其他农产品期权隐含波动率则小幅变化截止上周五收盘玉米期权隐含波动率报收于962豆粕期权隐含波动率报收于1663棕榈油期权隐含波动率报收于2146白糖期权隐含波动率报收于1603棉花期权隐含波动率报收于2238成交量PCR期权的成交量PCR是站在期权的买方角度看待市场的表现表示的是市场情绪指标一般认为成交量PCR越大投资者情绪越悲观成交量PCR越小投资者情绪越乐观玉米期权成交量PCR报收于209豆粕期权成交量PCR报收于175棕榈油期权成交量PCR报收于077白糖期权成交量PCR报收于069棉花期权成交量PCR小幅盘整报收于095持仓量PCR一般认为期权的持仓量PCR为100时是多头和空头的分界线玉米期权持仓量PCR持续小幅下降报收于103豆粕期权持仓量PCR小幅盘整维持较高水平报收于135棕榈油期权持仓量PCR较低水平窄幅波动报收于057白糖期权持仓量PCR快速下降报收于107棉花期权持仓量PCR小幅上升报收于058结论与操作建议1棉花期权棉花CF305维持近两周以来震荡下行空头下跌市场情绪转为偏空头棉花期权隐含波动率快速上升持仓量PCR较低水平窄幅波动操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如CF2305SCF2305P13600SCF2305P13800和SCF2305C13800SCF2305C140002白糖期权白糖SR2305经过前期的持续大幅上涨突破上行上周以来冲高回落快速下跌而中期趋势线方向仍向上期权隐含波动率逐渐下降回落期权持仓量PCR急速下降报收于080以下操作建议构建看涨期权看跌期权偏多头组合策策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情极速大跌至低行权价则逐渐平仓离场如SR305SSR305P600010SSR305P610010和SSR305C620010SSR305C6300103棕榈油期权棕榈油P2305前一周持续大幅下挫后上周以来跌幅收窄低位弱势盘整震荡期权隐含波动率快速上升持仓量PCR维持至较低水平操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如P2305SP2305-P-770010SP2305-P-760010和SP2305-C-780010SP2305-C-7900104玉米期权玉米C2305维持近三周以来20天均线附近的宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡期权隐含波动率有所反弹上升仍在较低水平持仓量PCR小幅回落操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如C2305SC2305-P-284010SC2305-P-282010和SC2305-C-288010SC2305-C-286010周市场行情概要期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅周日均成交量万增减上周日均持仓量万增减CC23052850000-04623080386411-070MM23053668-13100-309633104510997-1916PP23057752-16000-22567811884168-858SRSR23056132-18300-237518428113707-963CFCF230513885-45500-37145648095496-1164RMRM23052952-9200-307599113344060-1218数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部期权总成交与持仓周日均成交量周日均持仓量期权品种CallPut合计变化PCRCallPut合计变化PCRC3647065863102332370981811926302164194090499384112M714241011911726142110314221010728402849413523013135P5898548440107425-3141508294880521611470416911055SR10433998241202580-3563309415856218631334487525041118CF8224372984155227452800891960301363763324069149070RM28514430227153623058151535935586910946210319104数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部日市场行情概要主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日C23052860155040502835900032-1500152023-04-10M23053650890036003703-4500-1203500152023-04-10P230578002020019650780668000885350152023-04-10SR2305610090004800614229000471000132023-04-06CF23051380028400167001391770000513200132023-04-06RM23052950670047502970-1850-0621750132023-04-06数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWC2305955965962006919957881M2305153417371663049152115981445P2305212021632146-196189920601739SR2305167115041603050131015881031CF2305238520832238-012189620271765RM2305204826492466235193720981776数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化C23053684477162209-024156532161259103-000M230575823132429175029170654230182135001P23056710751892077-0219167052071057004SR23057369050534069-051103196109984107-003CF23057451670602095-00515284489225058001RM230525492579962280934681653589114012数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1玉米主力合约走势图300060成交量万收盘价5029002836004028003020270010260002023-02-132023-02-242022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-162023-02-212023-03-012023-03-062023-03-092023-03-142023-03-17图2豆粕主力合约走势图4400200成交量万收盘价420015040001003800370100503600340002022-11-212023-02-242023-03-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-03-062023-03-092023-03-142023-03-17图3白糖主力合约走势图640090成交量万收盘价61420080620070606000504058003056002010540002022-10-312023-02-032022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09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004550002054002022-09-272022-09-062022-09-162022-10-132022-10-242022-11-022022-11-112022-11-222022-12-012022-12-122022-12-212022-12-302023-01-112023-01-202023-02-072023-02-162023-02-272023-03-082023-03-172022-12-012023-02-272022-09-192022-09-292022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-03-092022-09-06IMPVMA20UPLOW棉花期权持仓分布棉花期权持仓分布图棉花期权持仓变化图2000020001800015001600010001400050012000010000-5008000-10006000-150040002000-2000-2500110001100014200174001180011800122001260013000134001380014600150001540015800162001660017000178001820018600190000114001100011000114001140011800122001260013000134001380014200146001500015400158001620016600170001740017800182001860019000OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC棉花期权最大未平仓棉花认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价24000220002000018000160001400012000100002022-11-082022-12-202023-02-082022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-012023-03-062023-03-092023-03-142023-03-17棉花期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓棉花期权持仓量PCR棉花期权隐含波动率120OIPCR1600045CLOSE40100351390000080301400025060201504010020120002022-09-272022-09-062022-09-162022-10-132022-10-242022-11-022022-11-112022-11-222022-12-012022-12-122022-12-212022-12-302023-01-112023-01-202023-02-072023-02-162023-02-272023-03-082023-03-172022-12-012023-02-272022-09-192022-09-292022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-03-092022-09-06IMPVMA20UPLOW菜粕期权持仓分布菜粕期权持仓分布图菜粕期权持仓变化图80002000700015006000100050004000500300002000-50010000-1000310031003300240033002400240024502500260027002800290030003200340035003600245025002600270028002900300031003200340035003600OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC菜粕期权最大未平仓菜粕认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价400036003200280024002022-11-242023-02-212022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-242023-03-012023-03-062023-03-092023-03-142023-03-17菜粕期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓菜粕期权持仓量PCR菜粕期权隐含波动率3003900OIPCR45CLOSE402503600352002969003300301502530001002005027001500024002022-09-272022-09-062022-09-162022-10-132022-10-242022-11-022022-11-112022-11-222022-12-012022-12-122022-12-212022-12-302023-01-112023-01-202023-02-072023-02-162023-02-272023-03-082023-03-172022-12-012023-02-272022-09-192022-09-292022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-03-092022-09-06IMPVMA20UPLOW棕榈油期权持仓分布棕榈油期权持仓分布图棕榈油期权持仓变化图180001200160001000140008001200060040010000200800006000-2004000-4002000-6000-8006800890059006200650071007400770080008300860092009500980059006200650068007100740077008000830086008900920095009800120001020010200108001140012600132001080011400120001260013200OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC棕榈油期权最大未平仓棕榈油认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价12000110001000090008000700060002022-09-202022-10-262022-11-242022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-012023-03-062023-03-092023-03-142023-03-17棕榈油期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓棕榈油期权持仓量PCR棕榈油期权隐含波动率240900055OIPCRCLOSE2105086001804540150820035120300907800250602074001503000070002022-09-272022-09-062022-09-162022-10-132022-10-242022-11-022022-11-112022-11-222022-12-012022-12-122022-12-212022-12-302023-01-112023-01-202023-02-072023-02-162023-02-272023-03-082023-03-172022-12-012023-02-272022-09-192022-09-292022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-03-092022-09-06IMPVUPUPLOW策略应用和分析棉花日行情K线图棉花期权投资策略和到期损益图棉花CF305维持近两周以来震荡下行空头下跌市场情绪转为偏空头棉花期权隐含波动率快速上升持仓量PCR较低水平窄幅波动操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如CF2305SCF2305P13600SCF2305P13800和SCF2305C13800SCF2305C14000到期损益图如下策略应用和分析白糖日行情K线图白糖期权投资策略和到期损益图白糖SR2305经过前期的持续大幅上涨突破上行上周以来冲高回落快速下跌而中期趋势线方向仍向上期权隐含波动率逐渐下降回落期权持仓量PCR急速下降报收于080以下操作建议构建看涨期权看跌期权偏多头组合策策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情极速大跌至低行权价则逐渐平仓离场如SR305SSR305P600010SSR305P610010和SSR305C620010SSR305C630010策略到期损益图如下策略应用和分析棕榈油日行情K线图棕榈油期权投资策略和到期损益图棕榈油P2305前一周持续大幅下挫后上周以来跌幅收窄低位弱势盘整震荡期权隐含波动率快速上升持仓量PCR维持至较低水平操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如P2305SP2305-P-770010SP2305-P-760010和SP2305-C-780010SP2305-C-790010策略到期损益图如下策略应用和分析玉米日行情K线图玉米期权投资策略和到期损益图玉米C2305维持近三周以来20天均线附近的宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡期权隐含波动率有所反弹上升仍在较低水平持仓量PCR小幅回落操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如C2305SC2305-P-284010SC2305-P-282010和SC2305-C-288010SC2305-C-286010策略到期损益图如下免责声明五矿期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构已具备有商品期货经纪金融期货经纪资产管理期货交易咨询等业务资格本刊所有信息均建立在可靠的资料来源基础上我们力求能为您提供精确的数据客观的分析和全面的观点但我们必须声明对所有信息可能导致的任何损失概不负责本报告并不提供量身定制的交易建议报告的撰写并未虑及读者的具体财务状况及目标五矿期货研究团队建议交易者应独立评估特定的交易和战略并鼓励交易者征求专业财务顾问的意见具体的交易或战略是否恰当取决于交易者自身的状况和目标文中所提及的任何观点都仅供参考不构成买卖建议版权声明本报告版权为五矿期货有限公司所有本刊所含文字数据和图表未经五矿期货有限公司书面许可任何人不得以电子机械影印录音或其它任何形式复制传播或存储于任何检索系统不经许可复制本刊任何内容皆属违反版权法行为可能将受到法律起诉并承担与之相关的所有损失赔偿和法律费用五矿期货分支机构深圳总部业务一部深圳市南山区滨海大道3165号五矿金融大厦13-16层电话400-888-5398电话0755-83252740业务二部业务三部电话0755-88917165电话0755-83752356业务四部业务五部电话010-68331868-183电话028-85053476深圳营业部北京分公司深圳市福田区福华三路1006号诺德大厦30D1北京市海淀区首体南路6号新世纪世行饭店写字楼1253室电话0755-83752310电话010-68332068成都分公司上海分公司成都高新区天府大道北段1288号1幢3单元12层1204上海市浦东新区向城路288号国华人寿金融大厦9029031205电话021-58784529电话028-86131072青岛分公司北京营业部山东省青岛市东海西路35号太平洋中心1写字楼409北京市丰台区广安路9号院6号楼408409电话0532-85780820电话010-64185322广州营业部湛江营业部广东省广州市天河区珠江西路17号广晟国际大厦24楼2407广东省湛江市开发区乐山东路35号银隆广场12层A1210室电话020-29117582电话0759-2856220天津营业部西安营业部天津市滨海高新区华苑产业区梅苑路5号金座广场2101-2102陕西省西安市新城区纬什街新科路1号楼一层电话022-23778878电话029-87572985宁波中山西路营业部重庆营业部浙江省宁波市海曙区布政巷16号12楼1205室重庆市江北区江北城西大街25号11-1电话0574-87330527电话023-67078086南通营业部郑州营业部江苏省南通市青年东路81号南通大饭店B楼财富中心2003郑州市未来路69号未来大厦16层1612号室电话0371-65619030电话0513-81026105杭州民心路营业部台州爱华路营业部浙江省杭州市江干区万银大厦1408室浙江省台州市椒江区爱华新台州大厦8-A电话0571-81969926电话0576-89811511济南营业部昆明营业部山东省济南市历下区山大路201号天业科技商务大厦401云南省昆明市盘龙区北京路612号银海国际公寓D座3201427室室电话0531-83192255电话0871-63338532大连营业部唐山营业部辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路大连国际金融中心A座大连期河北省唐山市路北区军鑫里凤城国贸1楼21层2104号货大厦2001号电话0315-5936395电话0411-84800452武汉营业部湖北省武汉市江岸区三阳路8号天悦星辰A栋26楼2602室电话0755-23375007

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