力劲科技（“公司”）与客户新签巨额订单，我们预计将为公司带来超过10亿港元收入。文灿股份宣布与公司深圳子公司签订设备采购框架协议，将采购38台大型压铸机，包括9000T三台、7000T一台、6000T四台、4500T八台、3500T六台、2800T十一台、2200T五台。文灿股份预计所有设备将在2年内完成交付。我们预计这38台大型（包括超大型）压铸机将在未来两年为公司贡献超过10亿港元收入。按照大型压铸机超过30%毛利率，超大型压铸机超过40%毛利率测算，我们预计该订单将为公司贡献超过3.5亿港元的毛利。2023财年上半年公司大型压铸机营收占压铸机板块整体营收的比例超过70%。我们认为未来随着大型压铸机业务持续保持增长，公司整体毛利率将持续提升。
　　中国新能源车企和零部件厂商积极采用一体压铸方案，大型压铸机需求持续旺盛。此次文灿股份的大额订单，显示了中国新能源车企对一体压铸零件的强劲需求。一体压铸方案引发了车身制造工艺的革新，中国新能源车在新技术方案上的追求更加积极。目前一体压铸应用范围逐步从前底板、后底板扩展到电池包、减震塔、副车架等。随着单辆新能源汽车对压铸件数量的需求越来越多，叠加一体压铸方案渗透率的提升，中国市场对大型压铸机的需求持续强劲。
　　公司传统业务或将跟随经济复苏而复苏，公司业绩有望改善。公司传统业务如注塑机、小型压铸机的营收和毛利在2022年经历了较为显著的下滑。但随着中国宏观政策调整，制造业资本支出上升，整体下游需求将逐渐改善。注塑机和小型压铸机业务在2023年的营收和毛利或将提升，进一步改善公司业绩。
　　投资建议：我们认为力劲科技长期增长逻辑坚实，短期业绩有望持续改善，维持公司评级为“买入”，维持目标价为11.90港元。我们预测2023-2025财年EPS为0.437港元、0.596港元、0.773港元。我们的目标价对应27.3倍/ 20.0倍/ 15.4倍的2023-2025财年市盈率

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteLKTech00558HKAlexBai白舸EquityResearch85225097202快讯力劲科技00558HKgebaigtjascomhk17March2023TheTableSummaryCompanySignedaHugeNewOrderShowingStrongDemandofLarge-ScaleDie-CastingMachines公司新签大额订单显示大型压铸机需求旺盛快讯LKTechnologyLKTechortheCompanysignedahugeneworderwithacustomerandweestimatethatitwillbringmorethanHK1billioninrevenuetotheCompanyWencanGroupCoLtdWencanFlashNoteannouncedthatithassignedanequipmentprocurementframeworkwiththeCompanysShenzhensubsidiaryandwillpurchase38largedie-castingmachinesincludingthree9000Tone7000Tfour6000Teight4500Tsix3500Televen2800Tandfive2200TsetsWencanexpectsthatallequipmentwillbedeliveredwithin2yearsWeforecastthatthese38largeincludingsuper-largedie-castingmachinesmaycontributemorethanHK1billioninrevenuetotheCompanyinthenexttwoyearsBasedonthegrossprofitmarginofover30forlargedie-castingmachinesandover40forsuper-largedie-castingmachinesweforecastthatthisordermaycontributeoverHK350millioningrossprofittotheCompanyTheCompanyslarge-scaledie-castingmachinerevenueaccountedformorethan70oftheoverallrevenueofthedie-castingmachinesegmentin1HFY2023Webelievethatasthelarge-scaledie-castingmachinebusinesscontinuestogrowtheCompanysgrossprofitmarginwillcontinuetoincrease证Chinesenewenergycarmanufacturersandcomponentmanufacturersareactivelyadoptingsingle-piece券die-castingsolutionsandthedemandforlarge-scaledie-castingmachinescontinuestobestrongThelarge研ordersofWencanshowedstrongdemandforsingle-piecedie-castingpartsfromChinesenewenergycarcompanies告究Thesingle-piecedie-castingsolutionhastriggeredinnovationinthecarbodymanufacturingprocessandChinasnew报报energyvehiclesareactiveinupgradestonewtechnologysolutionsAtpresenttheapplicationscopeofsingle-piece告究die-castinghasgraduallyexpandedfromthefrontfloorandrearfloortobatterypacksshocktowerssub-framesandEquityResearchReportothersWiththeincreaseinnumberofdie-castingpartsforasinglenewenergyvehicleandtheincreaseinpenetration研Tablerateofsingle-piecedie-castingsolutionsdemandforlarge-scaledie-castingmachinesintheChinesemarketmay券Info1continuetobestrong证TheCompanystraditionalbusinessmayrecoveralongsideeconomicrecoveryandweexpecttheCompanysperformancetoimproveRevenueandgrossprofitoftheCompanystraditionalbusinessessuchas机injectionmoldingmachinesandsmalldie-castingmachinesexperiencedsignificantdeclinein2022Howeverwith械adjustmentsinChinasmacropolicyandtheincreaseofcapitalexpenditureofthemanufacturingindustryoverall行downstreamdemandwillgraduallyimproveRevenueandgrossprofitoftheinjectionmoldingmachinebusinessand业smalldie-castingmachinebusinessin2023mayincreaseimprovingtheCompanysperformanceMachinerySectorInvestmentsuggestionWebelievethatthelong-termgrowthlogicofLKTechissolidandweexpectshort-termperformancetoimproveWemaintaintheCompanysratingasBuyandmaintainTPofHK1190WeforecastearningspershareinFY23FY24FY25tobeHK0437HK0596andHK0773respectivelyOurTPrepresents273x200x154xFY23-FY25PEratioTableInfo2力劲科技LKTechLKHK00558SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3TablePageHeaderLKTech00558HK力劲科技公司与客户新签巨额订单我们预计将为公司带来超过10亿港元收入文灿股份宣布与公司深圳子公司签订设备采购框架协议将采购38台大型压铸机包括9000T三台7000T一台6000T四台4500T1八台ra3500TMt六台hgi2800TR十一台elbaT2200T五台文灿股份预计所有设备将在2年内完成交付我们预计这38台大型包括超大型压铸机将在未来两年为公司贡献超过10亿港元收入按照大型压铸机超过30毛利率超大型压铸机超过40毛利率测算我们预计该订单将为公司贡献超过35亿港元的毛利2023财年上半年公司大型压铸机营收占压铸机板块整体营收的比例超过70我们认为未来随着大型压铸机业务持续保持增长公司整体毛利率将持续提升中国新能源车企和零部件厂商积极采用一体压铸方案大型压铸机需求持续旺盛此次文灿股份的大额订单显示了中国新能源车企17March2023对一体压铸零件的强劲需求一体压铸方案引发了车身制造工艺的革新中国新能源车在新技术方案上的追求更加积极目前一体压铸应用范围逐步从前底板后底板扩展到电池包减震塔副车架等随着单辆新能源汽车对压铸件数量的需求越来越多叠加一体压铸方案渗透率的提升中国市场对大型压铸机的需求持续强劲公司传统业务或将跟随经济复苏而复苏公司业绩有望改善公司传统业务如注塑机小型压铸机的营收和毛利在2022年经历了较为显著的下滑但随着中国宏观政策调整制造业资本支出上升整体下游需求将逐渐改善注塑机和小型压铸机业务在2023年的营收和毛利或将提升进一步改善公司业绩投资建议我们认为力劲科技长期增长逻辑坚实短期业绩有望持续改善维持公司评级为买入维持目标价为1190港元我2raMthgiRelbaT们预测2023-2025财年EPS为0437港元0596港元0773港元我们的目标价对应273倍200倍154倍的2023-2025财年市盈率00558HK力劲科技LKTechFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of3TablePageHeaderLKTech00558HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisneutral17March2023Reduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookoftheCompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinition2raMthgiRelbaTOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months00558HK5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies力劲科技LKTechDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of3