估值情况：利润走缩，进口倒挂，估值不高。上周油制PP利润下降447元/吨至-478元/吨，煤制PP利润下降398元/吨至237元/吨，PDH利润下降182元/吨至-882元/吨，进口利润下降18元/吨至-256元/吨。上周油制PE利润下降297元/吨至28元/吨，煤制PE利润下降288元/吨至387元/吨，进口利润上涨248元/吨至-7元/吨。
　　驱动情况：上周PP库存环比持平，PE小幅累库1.8万吨，当前PEPP库存同期偏低。2月PPPE检修比较高，3月PE检修损失预估15.9万吨，环比变动不大，3月预估PP检修损失32.3万吨，环比下降2.7万吨。广东石化和海南炼化已经顺利投产，进口依旧处于倒挂状态，3-4月进口量预计偏低。
　　操作建议：新产能释放压力，低库存高检修存在支撑，短期价格震荡。中期看，PE后续基本没有新增产能，地膜有旺季需求，中期逢低做多。基于塑料和PP的产能投放差异，以及3月PE地膜需求旺季，相对更看好塑料，推荐逢低多L-PP价差。

研究报告全文：银河期货聚烯烃周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年03月06日银河能化微信公众号主要观点估值情况利润走缩进口倒挂估值不高上周油制PP利润下降447元吨至-478元吨煤制PP利润下降398元吨至237元吨PDH利润下降182元吨至-882元吨进口利润下降18元吨至-256元吨上周油制PE利润下降297元吨至-28元吨煤制PE利润下降288元吨至387元吨进口利润上涨248元吨至-7元吨驱动情况上周PP库存环比持平PE小幅累库18万吨当前PEPP库存同期偏低2月PPPE检修比较高3月PE检修损失预估159万吨环比变动不大3月预估PP检修损失323万吨环比下降27万吨广东石化和海南炼化已经顺利投产进口依旧处于倒挂状态3-4月进口量预计偏低操作建议新产能释放压力低库存高检修存在支撑短期价格震荡中期看PE后续基本没有新增产能地膜有旺季需求中期逢低做多基于塑料和PP的产能投放差异以及3月PE地膜需求旺季相对更看好塑料推荐逢低多L-PP价差GALAXYFUTURES1PE概述项目基本面及变化库存上周PE小幅累库总库存增加18万吨其中两油累库19万吨煤化工累库02万吨贸易商去库05万吨港口累库02万吨当前PE库存整体偏低2月PE产量2153万吨环比下降79同比增长32累计同比增长32月PE检修损失量166万吨环比持平3月检修损失预估159万吨环比变动不大上周PE检修损失量58万吨环比增加14万吨负荷937环比下降09个百分点新增产能方面海南炼化投产30万吨年HDPE产产量726030万吨年FDPE产7042广东石化炼化一体化项目投产40万吨年HDPE装置产726040万吨年全密度1线聚乙烯装置产832040万吨年全密度2线聚乙烯装置产7042N2022年12月PE进口量109万吨环比下降138同比增加04全年进口量1347万吨同比下降77进口依赖度由2021年的39下降至35上周美金报盘依然有限报价维持坚挺因此目前进口窗口尚未打开导致美金成交量不多外盘供应方面中东地区目前多数前期检修的装置仍在检修中并且中国价格吸引力不高因此上周来自中东方向的报盘依然很少且配售额不多但是预计下周陆续有装置开始重启因此后期来自中东的报盘可能会增多据闻一主流俄罗斯供应商目前在大修近期向中国供应量很少东北亚裂解进出口装置因烯烃利润修复开工率开始回升但是目前尚未听闻来自东北亚供应商的报盘东南亚市场因需求跟进不足价格继续走弱不过目前价格较中国仍有竞争力印度目前国内装置开工率依然偏低HPCLMittalEnergy的裂解装置上周着火因此裂解装置的稳定运行预计将推迟下游目前为止尚未正常运行叠加国内需求较好印度市场价格吸引力依然较强北美地区需求稳中向好台塑北美低压工厂因意外机械问题宣布不可抗力低压的供应依然偏紧且目前北美到南美欧洲及印度等地的出口利润高于中国因此近两周来自北美的报盘依然很少因前期的PE转口成交2月份的净进口量可能不及预期另外因中东及北美供应的减少以及中国市场价格依然是全球洼地预计3-4月份进口量将有明显下滑12022年12月PE消费335万吨环比下降34同比增长242022年全年PE消费3859万吨同比增长3342上周PE下游开工部分提升农膜开工上涨4个百分点至45单丝开工上涨1个百分点至44中空开工上涨1个百分点至49管材开工需求上涨2个百分点至48目前下游各行业主流开工在44-60农膜方面农膜需求差异较为明显棚膜需求趋淡地膜需求继续跟进地膜厂家开工继续提升部分厂家满负荷生产管材方面部分给水排污订单有序跟进整体开工较前期有所提升312月塑料制品出口金额为9482万亿美元环比增加28同比下降32022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长93利润上周油制PE利润下降297元吨至-28元吨煤制PE利润下降288元吨至387元吨进口利润上涨248元吨至-7元吨GALAXYFUTURES2PP概述项目基本面及变化库存上周PP库存环比持平两油库存累库18万吨煤化工去库15万吨贸易商去库03万吨港口库存累库01万吨当前PP库存同期偏低2月PP产量233万吨环比下降114同比下降18累计同比增长262月PP检修损失量35万吨环比增加46万吨3月预估PP检修损失323万吨环比下降27万吨上周PP检修环比减少周度检修损失101万吨但仍处同期高位负荷87环比上升1个百分点新增产能方面海南炼化乙烯项目裂解装产量置正常生产聚丙烯气相法20万吨年JPP装置产S1003环管法30万吨年STPP装置产T03中石油广东揭阳石化炼化一体化项目50万吨年PP装置正常生产2022年12月PP进口量437万吨环比增加76同比增加142全年进口量451万吨同比下降6进口依赖度由2021年的138下降至126进口方面上周PP美金报盘有所增加但进口窗口依然关闭美金货成交量有限上周PP均聚主流成交价格在950-970美元吨PP共聚主流成交价格在975-1000美元吨稳中略有走强进出口2022年12月PP出口量52万吨环比下降17同比下降622022年PP出口量127万吨同比下降86上周煤制PP均聚出口报价维持在1020美元吨油制PP均聚出口报价维持在1040-1065美元吨由于东南亚需求走弱价格继续下跌且运费有所上涨因此向东南亚出口及转口成交受阻印度政府正在推进对PEPVC及PP等进口货物施加BIS认证要求尽管据悉立即实施的可能性不大但是后期逐步实施后将提高中国向印度的出口及转口贸易的壁垒并且由于南美市场有所走弱近期向南美的出口及转口成交走弱12022年12月PP消费333万吨环比增长53同比增长932022年全年PP消费3587万吨同比增长3322塑编据卓创资讯调研目前塑编企业新订单提升缓慢订单主要来自食品包装领域化工领域订单欠佳周内仅个别大厂开工提升部分下游工厂成品库存呈小幅增加态势企业对短期信心依然不足3BOPPBOPP企业开工负荷62环比上周提升2个百分点主要是个别上周停车检修企业恢复开车周内工厂订单改善温和但整体弱于往年因目需求前膜厂盈利空间较窄终端膜料经销商采购意向有所增加但胶带厂采购积极性依然不高4注塑注塑样本企业开工负荷54较上周提升2百分点调研情况来看部分托盘周转箱企业订单继续好转但日用品企业订单一般企业成品库存适中华东个别工厂成品库存偏高库存天数高于往年同期目前企业原料库存普遍在8-12天短期依然持刚需接货心态52022年12月塑料制品出口金额为9482万亿美元环比增加28同比下降32022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长93上周油制PP利润下降447元吨至-478元吨煤制PP利润下降398元吨至237元吨PDH利润下降182元吨至-882元吨进口利润下降18元吨至-256元利润吨GALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章PE主要数据5第二章PP主要数据22GALAXYFUTURES4PE产业链价格分类名称2023030320230224上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅分类名称2023030320230224上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅布伦特现货价8538201203340-35-2909油制PE利润-28269873-2968-11050-9008-10323原油布伦特主8608291181338-32-2715CTO利润3876751468-2880-4270-10810-7366WTI主7997651150344-35-3057LL进口利润含税-7-255-4002483-97443935-9837CFR日本723707093741622-215-2292LL进口利润免税220-22-1442419-1105873636-25323石脑油FOB鹿特丹NA705925NANANANA利润LDPE进口利润-192-277-531852-30783394-6391煤坑口煤价8908309006072-100HD薄膜进口利润-326-280-791-46116454651-5878江苏出罐ICIS267252757529925-850-308-3200-1069HD中空进口利润-310-256-425-53620931154-2713甲醇CFR中国ICIS289529353535-40-136-64-1810HD注塑进口利润-193-223-246298-1333530-2150甲醇主力260826713018-630-236-410-1359HD拉丝进口利润-211-195-635-1618244239-6675CFR东北亚9619411231200213-270-2193LLDCFR中国98010101210-300-297-2300-1901CFR东南亚9819511231300315-250-2031LD薄膜CFR中国105010701500-200-187-4500-3000乙烯FD美国海湾美分磅212237-06-282-16-4220HD中空CFR中国94259425114500-2025-1769FD西北欧欧元吨9439141104290317-161-1458PECFR中国HD薄膜CFR中国10101010123000-2200-1789L01828082238957570069-677-756HD注塑低熔指CFR中国930930108000-1500-1389L05836783359124320038-757-830HD注塑高熔指CFR中国975975108000-1050-972L09832682759012510062-686-761HD注塑不分熔指CFR中国95259525109000-1375-1261PE华北LLD825082008900500061-650-730LLDCFR东南亚10611061132100-2600-1968LD华北8850880011600500057-27500-2371LLDFOB中东986986120600-2200-1824PE价格HD膜81008100885000-7500-847LLDFD西北欧12611261160100-3400-2124HD中空7950780086501500192-7000-809LLDFAS休斯顿10591059143400-3750-2615HD拉丝80208020870000-6800-782LDCFR东南亚11311131165100-5200-3150HD管材837583009300750090-9250-995LDFOB中东10861086151600-4300-2836HD注塑低熔7900780084001000128-5000-595LDFD西北欧13811381175100-3700-2113L01基差-30-23-57-703043270-4737LDFAS休斯顿11251125147800-3530-2388L05基差-117-135-224180-13331070-4777HD膜CFR东南亚10611061132100-2600-1968L09基差-76-75-112-10133360-3214PE外盘价格HD膜FOB中东10161016120600-1900-1575基差月差L1-5价差-87-112-16725-02232142980-04790419HD膜FD西北欧17391739214000-4010-1874L5-9价差4160112-190-3167-710-6339HD膜FAS休斯顿11251125130200-1770-1359L9-1价差465255-60-1154-90-1636HD中空CFR东南亚10311031125100-2200-1759LD-LLD600600270000-21000-7778HD中空CFR东南亚10311031125100-2200-1759HD膜-LLD膜-150-100-50-5005000-100020000HD中空FD西北欧16961696208400-3880-1862HD中空-LLD膜-300-400-2501000-2500-50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