>> 中金公司-SUN PAPER(002078)：TAILWINDS FROM BOTH PULP AND PAPER;REASONS FOR OPTIMISM ABOUT 2H23-230303
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2023/3/3 |
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中金公司 |
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研究报告全文：SUNPAPER002078TAILWINDSFROMBOTHPULPANDPAPERREASONSFOROPTIMISMABOUT2H232023-03-03Preannounced2022netprofitatRmb278bninlinewithourestimateSunPaperpreannouncedits2022resultsRevenuerose25YoYtoRmb3995bnandattributablenetprofitfell6YoYtoRmb278bnin2022In4Q22netprofitfell16QoQtoRmb510mninlinewithourexpectationsMainbusinessbottomedlowcostsandstrongrawmaterialresourcetoboostgrowthIn2022thepapermakingsectorwasinadownturnbutthefirmspulpbusinesstrendedupwardsWebelievedissolvingpulpandchemicalpulpwerethemajorsourcesofearningsin4Q22AccordingtoiFindtheaveragesellingpriceofdissolvingpulpin4Q22exceededRmb8000tWeestimatethecostofdissolvingpulpatthefirmsdomesticandLaosproductionbasesatlowerthanRmb7000tandRmb6000tWeexpectthefirmsstrongcostadvantagestoboostearningsgrowthin2023ThefirmhasbeencuttingcostsandcontrollingexpensesformanyyearsprovidingastrongmarginofsafetyatcyclicalbottomsLeaderinprintingandwritingPWpaperremainresilientWeestimatethatSunPapersPWpaperwasonlyslightlyprofitablepertonnein4Q22butthebusinessremainedmuchmoreresilientthanthoseofpeersWeattributetheresiliencetoahighself-sufficiencyrateforpulpandeffectivecostcontrolClearstrategyforcontainerboardbusinessatbottombutnotdragtooverallearningsWeestimatethatthefirmscontainerboardbusinessbrokeevenin4Q22despiteasectorbottomsomerivalssufferedlossesofoverRmb150tUnlikepeerswhofocusonseizingmarketshareSunPapertargetsmid-rangeandhigh-endcontainerboardandaimstomaintainprofitabilityoratleastbreakevenTrendstowatchRecoverytostartin2Q23upbeaton2H23earningsgrowthPWpaperWeestimatePWsectorearningsfluctuatedatabottominJanuaryandmid-FebruarywithtenderingstartinginsomeregionsinlateFebruaryWeexpectpaperpricestoriseinpeakseasoninMarchGivenexpectationsforfallingpulpandcoalpricesweexpectthePWpapersectortostartrecoveringin2Q23ContainerboardDespitefallingpricesforcoalanddomesticwastepaperwebelievesectorearningshoveredaroundbreakevenin1Q23ThisisbecauseexpensiverawmaterialinventorywasdrawndownandcheaperimportedcontainerboardandcorrugatingmediumenteredthemarketandmadeitharderforfirmstoraisepricesHoweverweexpectSunPapersLaosbasetorecoveraheadofscheduleandcontributeincrementalearningsin2023thankstolowerwastepaperpricesintheUSPulpWeexpectpulppricestofallin1-3Q23andSunPapersearningsinthepulpbusinessmaydropYoYSector-widepulpandpapersalesmaybothbeweakin1H23Howeverweexpectthefirmspulpandpaperbusinesstobestrongin2H23ArecoveryindomesticdemandmayboostpaperpricesandpulppricesmaybottomoutthankstorisingdemandandlargenewpapermakingfacilitiesImprovingforest-pulp-paperintegrationproductionfacilitiesinNanningGuangxitoboostmedium-termgrowthSunPaperhasmorethan10mntyrpaperandpulpcapacityandcontinuestoimproveforest-pulp-paperintegrationMoreoverthefirmhasexpandedproductioncapacitydespiteasectordownturnandhasannouncedplanstobuilda525mntforest-pulp-paperintegratedprojectinNanningphase1project22mnthigh-endpackagingpaperand650000tself-producedpulpThefirmstotalproductioncapacityforpaperandpulpwillamounttoover15mntyroncetheNanningprojectstartsoperationcoveringafullrangeofpackagingpaperprintingwritingpaperandspecialtypaperInthemediumtermwethinkhigh-qualityfiberandproximitytoportsarelikelytobecomeincreasinglyrareintheindustryWeareupbeatonthefirmsstrongmarginofsafetyandpotentialupsideinthemediumtermconsideringitsstrongcompetitiveadvantagesinShandongandGuangxiprovincesforestresourcesinLaoshigh-qualityfiberresourcescleardivisionofworkamongitsthreemajorproductionbasesandrareforestresourcesFinancialsandvaluationGiventhecostpressurein4Q22wecutour2022netprofitforecastby2toRmb28bnGivenapossibledemandrecoveryin2H23weraiseourper-tonnenetprofitassumptionand2023netprofitforecast9toRmb32bnandintroducea2024netprofitforecastofRmb35bnThestockistradingat11x2023eand10x2024ePEAsriskappetiteremainsweakinthesectorwemaintainourOUTPERFORMratingandtargetpriceofRmb1614x2023eand13x2024ePEoffering27upsideRisksDemandfallsshortofexpectationsintensifyingcompetitionsharper-than-expectedfluctuationinrawmaterialandenergyprices
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