>> 中金公司-WEIXING NEW BUILDING MATERIALS(002372)：STRONG RECOVERY IN 4Q22;“CONCENTRIC CIRCLE” STRATEGY TO DRIVE GROWTH -230301
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2023/3/1 |
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中金公司 |
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研究报告全文：WEIXINGNEWBUILDINGMATERIALS002372STRONGRECOVERYIN4Q22CONCENTRICCIRCLESTRATEGYTODRIVEGROWTH2023-03-01Preannouncedattributablenetprofittogrow64YoYin2022WeixingNewBuildingMaterialsWeixingpreannouncedits2022resultsRevenuerose86YoYtoRmb694bnattributablenetprofitgrew64YoYtoRmb130bnandrecurringnetprofitrose68YoYtoRmb127bnIn4Q22itexpectsitsrevenueandattributablenetprofittorise17YoYand18YoYtoRmb277bnandRmb531mnThefirmsrevenuein4Q22slightlybeatourexpectationsWeattributethistoitsfaster-than-expectedsalesgrowthofnewproductsItsattributablenetprofitinboth4Q22and2022waslargelyinlinewithourexpectationsRevenueandprofitrecoveredrapidlyin4Q22RapidrevenuerecoveryThefirmsYoYrevenuegrowthbyquarterwas12in1Q220in2Q221in3Q22and17in4Q22Itsrevenuein4Q22grew67QoQWeestimatethatrevenuefrompipelinesgrewYoYin4Q22whilethewaterproofingandwaterpurificationproductcategoriesexpandedrapidlyInouropinionthesignificantimprovementinQoQrevenuegrowthin4Q22reflectsthefirmsstrongrecoverymomentumEarningsgrowthresilienceIn4Q22polypropylenerandomPPRandpolyvinylchloridePVCpricesdropped0and7QoQor9and41YoYRawmaterialpricesremainedrelativelylowWeexpectthefirmsGMtoimproveslightlyYoYin4Q22Thefirmsnetmarginrose01pptYoYto192in4Q22accordingtoourcalculationItsweightedaverageROEin2022dropped11pptYoYtoabout259RecurringnetprofitmeetsthirdprerequisiteforunlockingrestrictedsharesinequityincentiveplanThefirmsrecurringnetprofitreachedRmb127bnin2022exceeding138oftheaveragerecurringnetprofitin2017-2019ThismettheprerequisiteforunlockingsharesintheequityincentiveplanWeexpectthefirmsamortizationexpensestodropbyaboutRmb20mnin2023TrendstowatchSalesofexistinghomesrecoveringrapidlyweexpectstrongdemandforitsplasticpipesforhomerefurbishmentIntheweekofFebruary13-19GFA-soldofexistinghomesin15samplecitiesrose18WoWand96YoYGFA-soldinthefullmonthofFebruary2023grew72YoYSalesvolumeofexistinghomeswasstrongandnewhomesalesalsorecoveredsteadilyAstheimpactoftheCOVID-19resurgenceeasedandChinaseconomyrecoversweexpectdemandforhomedecorationandre-decorationtorecoverrapidlyThisshoulddrivesalesofpipesforhomerefurbishmentandresultinsolidgrowthofthefirmspiperevenueHighbarrierstoentryonretailsideconcentriccirclestrategytoempowerlong-termgrowthPricesofthefirmsmajorrawmaterialsarelowatpresentWebelievethatthefirmenjoysstrongcompetitivenessontheretailsideandexpectittobenefitfromtherelativelylowrawmaterialcostsandstrongbargainingpowerWeexpectitsGMtoimprovemildlyanditsmedianearningstoremainrelativelyhighin2023InthemediumandlongtermwebelievedemandforpipesforhomerefurbishmentwillgrowsteadilyandareupbeatonthegrowthupsideofwaterproofingandwaterpurificationproductsInouropinionthefirmwillcontinuetoseesoliddemandInrecentyearsthefirmhasbeenacceleratingregionalbusinessexpansionproductcategoryexpansionandexpansioninlower-tiermarketsWeexpectthefirmtocontinuetostrengthenitsadvantagesontheconsumersideanditsearningstogrowsteadilyonthebackofitsstarbutlerservicesandconcentriccirclemulti-categorystrategyFinancialsandvaluationWeleaveour2022and2023EPSforecastsunchangedatRmb083andRmb104andintroduceour2024EPSforecastofRmb120Thestockistradingat239x2023eand208x2024ePEWemaintainOUTPERFORMConsideringthevaluationrolloverto2023weraiseourtargetprice24toRmb3110299x2023eand260x2024ePEoffering25upsideRisksSharper-than-expecteddemanddeclineintherealestatesectordisappointingnewbusinessexpansion
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