工业硅仍处的僵局之内，下有电价托底上有供给压制。
　　供需方面，开年双增但缺乏错配矛盾。终端改善年后率先而来，从利润分配和需求提升两个方面带动现货止跌，产业链价格均见反弹，但供给随之释放且速度较快，有机硅日开工提至80%、硅料产能投放加超产、工业硅开炉数修复，前两者已见垒库尤以硅料斜率为最，工业硅因供给尚存西南枯水期制约表现为库存横盘。上周组件价格下调多晶硅尚处新产能爬产期间，有机硅中间体跟随硅胶价格仍有上涨，故用硅需求以有机硅开工率提升为主。同时供给端，西南缺水暂对工业硅无硬性干扰,而采用市场化高电价形式抑制开工，则水电目前为成本问题而非供给问题，基于利润原因四川开炉数维持低位但云南有个别复产。
　　估值方面，电价托底成本变化有限。煤炭因补库和事故原因先跌后涨，西南降水量依然同比低位，工业硅边际成本在17500上下，本周现货价格持稳于华东通氧553#17500，主产区中川闽亏损定价。盘面以基差修复为主，基本平水于基准交割品553，替代品421虽有400的品种套利空间但可能因交割未决暂未定价。
　　综上，短期水电、煤炭、错配、终端均未看到明显驱动，工业硅的震荡僵局仍将延续，中长期基于成本见顶和供给弹性保持空配观点，但需等待。
　　风险点:经济超预期，水电紧缺加剧

研究报告全文：-01234565785954789-0123456728980ABCDEFGHIJKLMNAOPQRS0789TUVWHXYZabc0de4fghi91j0D89klmnopqr02stZuvwxyzdA1BCDEFGHIJKGDLKGMmdy0hzPNOPNfQ1Rwwv08974f1dd02sk4fSTUVW1XY270Y2sPZ89L0EA1ZCMHGFGHIJKGDLKGM0R340aTNfQ1www3R890UVD2d034562XQcO00ww710a4fww0d4002wwUD4703yyGHyKLg0-0hX89jH0D-01234035E6-ABCDEFGHI4JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ47KLMNAOPQRSTUVMNWX4JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ4YZAabcd4JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ4efghiAjklmnoplqr4JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ4s1CtuAvwTExyz4JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ4-01234532-表1工业硅现货价格元吨美元吨最新价202321720231302022224周变动月变动年变动通氧553华东1750017500174502060000-15通氧553天津1725017250172502055000-16通氧553新疆1735017350174002040000通氧553云南174001740017650207500-1-16不通氧553华东171001710017200203000-1-16421华东188001880019000225000-1-16421四川1855018550185002220000-16521华东178001780018250220000-2-19441华东179001790018350220000-2-193303华东188001880019000226000-1-172202华东3075030750307503190000-497硅145001450014700187000-1-22421黄埔港FOB美元2815283528553775-1-1-2599属硅粉191001910019200242000-1-21553属硅粉190001900019100236500-1-20421属硅粉208002080021100258500-1-20资料来源Mysteel创元研究图1通氧553硅华东现货价格季节图元吨图2主要品种交割价格元吨20192020202120222023不通氧553硅华东通氧553硅华东421-升贴水20002800024000230002200018000200001800013000160008000140001月2日3月14日5月29日8月8日10月25日2022-01-012022-06-012022-11-01资料来源Mysteel创元研究资料来源Mysteel创元研究-01234533图3通氧与不通氧553工业硅价差元吨图4421与553工业硅品级价差元吨553通氧-不通氧不通氧553硅华东421有机硅-553通氧553硅华东通氧553硅华东421硅华东2800020002800040002300015002300030001800010001800020001300050013000100080000800002019-01-022021-01-022023-01-022019-01-022021-01-022023-01-02资料来源Mysteel创元研究资料来源Mysteel创元研究012345678934图5工业硅周度产量季节图万吨图6工业硅周度开炉数台同比20202021新疆云南四川内蒙黑龙江福建其他202220234008030350300702525020602001550150101004055030001月1日3月20日6月26日10月2日202211102022121020231102023210资料来源百川盈孚创元研究资料来源百川盈孚创元研究图7工业硅市场库存万吨图l8工业硅工厂库存万吨同比20202021同比2020202120222023202220231410014201212801010158608106640445202200001月1日3月20日6月26日10月2日1月1日2月28日5月15日7月31日10月16日资料来源Mysteel创元研究资料来源百川盈孚创元研究-01234534图9工业硅倒推表观需求量万吨图10工业硅库存明细万吨同比20202021黄埔港天津港昆明港20222023西北西南80501040703086020610500440-102-2030-3001月1日3月20日6月26日10月2日202031202131202231资料来源Mysteel百川盈孚创元研究资料来源Mysteel百川盈孚创元研究ABCDEFAGHIJK图11工业硅主产区生产成本元吨图12工业硅主产区成本价差元吨新疆成本云南成本云南-新疆四川-新疆福建-新疆20000四川成本福建成本6000180005000160004000140003000120002000100001000800006000-10002018-01-012020-01-012022-01-012018-01-012020-01-012022-01-01资料来源MysteelWIND创元研究资料来源MysteelWIND创元研究图13工业硅主产区现货利润估算元吨图14工业硅四川成本及利润元吨四川毛利四川成本不通氧553硅四川新疆毛利云南毛利10000四川毛利福建毛利200001000075001800080006000500016000400025001400020000120000-250010000-2000-50008000-40002015-04-012018-04-012021-04-012015-04-012018-04-012021-04-01资料来源MysteelWIND创元研究资料来源MysteelWIND创元研究-01234535图15工业硅主产区电价元度图16炭质还原剂单价元吨新疆云南四川福建坑口价13焦煤茂名焦木炭石墨电极右0705000400004000060300000503000200000402000100000301000020002018-01-012020-01-012022-01-012018-01-012020-01-012022-01-01资料来源Mysteel创元研究资料来源Mysteel创元研究LMNOPQRSTUVWSXY图17DMC现货价格与利润元吨图18有机硅深加工产品价格元吨DMC利润DMC-平均价DMC成本107胶-平均价硅油-平均价380002400022000330001900021000280002000014000230001900090001800018000130004000170008000-1000160002013-01-042017-01-042021-01-042022-10-102022-12-102023-02-10资料来源Mysteel创元研究资料来源Mysteel创元研究图19DMC周度产量与开工率万吨图20DMC日度利润与开工率元吨周度产量开工率右DMC利润DMC开工率右510024000904901900080804140007070390006060350400050240-100040202111120223120227120221112021-12-012022-06-012022-12-01资料来源百川盈孚创元研究资料来源Mysteel创元研究-01234536图21DMC利润与工厂库存元吨万吨图22工业硅品种价差与DMC开工率元吨DMC利润工厂库存右逆序421有机硅-553DMC开工率右250000400010020000350029015000300025008010000420007050006150060010008-500050050-100001004020191122202111222022-01-012022-06-012022-11-01资料来源百川盈孚创元研究资料来源Mysteel创元研究图23多晶硅现货价格千元吨图24多晶硅周度产量与工厂库存吨复投料致密料菜花料多晶硅工厂库存多晶硅周度产量3506500030055000250450002003500015025000100150005050002018112020112022112019112220211122资料来源Mysteel创元研究资料来源百川盈孚创元研究图25光伏产业链价格元瓦元片图26铝合金和97硅现货价格元吨单晶PERC电池片G12单晶PERC组件双面铝合金ADC1297硅单晶硅片G12右240002501222000200102000018000150816000100614000050412000202111202022520202211202018-01-012020-01-012022-01-01资料来源Mysteel创元研究资料来源Mysteel创元研究-01234537Z1Oabc图27工业硅基差元吨图28工业硅月差元吨基差主力收盘价2022122620231102023130现货主流价边际成本20232172023224190002000190001850015001850018000100018000175005001750017000016500-5001700016000-1000165002022-12-222023-01-222023-02-22最低仓单08合约10合约12合约资料来源WIND创元研究资料来源WIND创元研究图29工业硅周度供需万吨图30工业硅期货价格与供需差元吨万吨多晶硅用硅有机硅用硅工业硅产量期货价格供需差右逆序800002000060007000019500800060000190001000050000185001200040000180001400030000175002000017000160001000016500180000160002000020191122202111222022122120231212023221资料来源百川盈孚创元研究资料来源百川盈孚创元研究-01234538a178a9bb010A7a92c05A7defgyNdHhX9ij9klm2cn2op90q2opSyatSyrs2ygSt-uv7wxe9yry9STzyr2013A7aWy2014A7a2opWij0230gW0Aa9X2c0aTNfQ1F3094491NOPQ1Z00173950e0eU02AgyyyUP-2c0NdHhqhTNfQ1F3027456078a9ba90eUeo028osT2cNoXUP02W0oeWz9TNfQ1F3078632NOPQ1Z0018376078a9bop90e0op90opTNfQ1F03101696078a9ba90eo0CFAW09zW0NTZTNfQ1F3079285078a9ba90ev90dde718WTNfQ1F03088261078a9ba90d71W090NwdeIJTNfQ1F03105791078a9ba90reo0d90Vopg90dNsTNfQ1F03106586-078a9bNg90e230qea0aWTNfQ1F03103785NOPQ1Z0018217-078a9b01a90eo0d21z0390opde45TNfQ1F3083695XY078a9b2oa90d6y271deW09TNfQ1F306670801237809a902Aa92c0d9de71WX9T-01234539NfQ1F3074635NOPQ1Z0016616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