2023年春节前后的一级和二级单位销量假期分别下降了40%和8.3%
　　2022年春节期间的销售情况。每周售出率下降到37%。

研究报告全文：2023年1月30日0517PMGMT摩根士丹利亚洲有限公司中国房地产亚太CFA斯蒂芬张股票分析师StephenCheungmorganstanleycom8523963-0385数据库跟踪3克洛伊刘股票分析师ChloeLiu1morganstanleycom8522848-54972023年春节前后的一级和二级单位销量卡拉朱股票分析师假期分别下降了40和83CaraZhumorganstanleycom8522848-7117帕特里克江2022年春节期间的销售情况每周售出率股票分析师下降到37PatrickJiangmorganstanleycom8523963-2567贝蒂陈研究助理2023年农历期间1月16日至1月29日的主要单位销售BettyHChenmorganstanleycom8522239-7213个城市较年春节期间月日至月日下降摩根士丹利MorganStanley感谢您的支持28202212426402023年机构投资者所有亚洲研究根据CREIS进行销售登记具体来说房地产市场团队的调查在这里请求你的选票2023年各城市表现多样主要单位销售额中国地产与2022年农历相比Tier分别为-61-32和-43亚太地区分别为12和3的城市IndustryView有吸引力的2023年春节前后10个城市二级单位销量下降vs2022元83二级销量分别为-35和78至2022年春节期间一线城市和二线城市分别开放由于节日2022元比44在一级为期两周的平均成交率城市比例降至282022年为93两周平均售罄率二线城市的比率上升至452022年为3712月主要单位月度销量同比下降2712月主要单位销量同比下降3511月56个城市我们跟踪根据CREIS在这其中层12和3城市销售额同比分别下降2334和12每月12月二级销量同比下降19411月同比增长12我们跟踪的12个城市其中一二线城市的销售额同比下降31以及-分别为1712月库存月份增至157倍11月为156倍城市轨道根据克雷斯的说法其中库存月份为141倍一线城市为138倍二线城市为163倍11月为163倍三线城市为135倍11月为132倍摩根士丹利MorganStanley试图与它做生意摩根士丹利研究涵盖的公司作为一个因此投资者应注意该公司可能有一个可能影响客观性的利益冲突摩根士丹利研究投资者应考虑摩根士丹利研究只是制作的唯一因素他们的投资决策对于分析师认证和其他重要披露请参阅本末尾的披露部分报告受雇于非美国的分析师附属公司不是在FINRA注册可能不是会员可能不受FINRA限制在通讯公司公开研究持有的证券的外观和交易分析师帐户1表的内容第一节每周主要市场数据新启动和成交率销量同比变化第二节每周的二级市场数据第三节月度一级市场数据销量同比变化价格指数库存第四部分月度二级市场数据销量同比变化价格指数第五部分土地市场数据第六节国家统计局数据第七节房地产周期房地产周期与现货市场房地产周期与股价第8节房地产政策深潜水第9节信贷环境第10部分开发人员的月度销售节11估值和股价表现评估总结PE和PB图表股价表现2第一节每周主要市场数据新启动和成交率一线四大城市北京上海深圳广州二线城市六城成都重庆杭州南京天津武汉场景1每周新品发布和售出率-一线城市场景2每周新品发布和售出率二线城市单位新启动一级城市单位新推出的产品二线城市4wma出售通过利率一级城市RHS4wma通过利率二线城市销售RHS1000010030000100900090908000802500080700070200007060006060500050150005040004040300030100003020002050002010001010-0-0资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究究3场景3每周新发射和成交率每周新发射单元每周通过汇率卖出通过利率4wma出售期结束一级层2总计一级层2总计一级层2总计2022-03-20597419647933638384335362022-03-274364536397275836445535392022-04-03522769082122637355337392022-04-10-3756375640405338392022-04-17-3597359746465539412022-04-241812385156635349504742422022-05-01344787182153253505048482022-05-08704137620806937425449492022-05-151791302548162546404349472022-05-22797357143681837343247432022-05-29187747476619943523642442022-06-051038382148596852543944462022-06-121434197834124640424943472022-06-192428513875665963635950542022-06-26243614155165915255545655552022-07-03295431446095054535355552022-07-101033361046433231315153532022-07-171541354550865649514951502022-07-242388342358112952483947462022-07-31-4742474258583848472022-08-07-2187218739394051502022-08-14-3442344240402949482022-08-211106429454004432354443432022-08-281709612378326547505640422022-09-04396223826345056555643452022-09-11260151231132139324043432022-09-181727120429315059554250482022-09-2515885262685010041655147552022-10-023660630299622832314238442022-10-09294638833341551393939452022-10-161100232134213146423638442022-10-23519558461035243462539382022-10-302352476071129437534741472022-11-062032265346854127306139442022-11-131703634180445053526342472022-11-203180383170117173736649542022-11-272826364264687344496251532022-12-043376568890645348496354552022-12-113858178156397161636755572022-12-18341039838087360656749542022-12-25-2583258335356647542023-01-01747235230996952567148572023-01-0866738610534414296842512023-01-15-1088108870705746472023-01-222501644143287595354542023-01-292092823724414375748资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究4销量同比变化一线四大城市北京上海深圳广州二线城市18个城市长春长沙成都重庆大连东莞福州杭州合肥济南南京青岛沈阳苏州温州武汉无锡西安三线六市淮安江阴韶关苏州泰安芜湖场景4每周的销量一级城市附表5每周的销量二线城市单位销售单位一级城市单位销售单位二线城市年平均二线城市16000年平均一级城市700001400060000120005000010000400008000300006000400020000200010000--资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究究场景6每周的销量三线城市展览7每周的销量共28个城市单位销售单位三线城市单位销售单位总年平均总9000年平均-三线城市90000800080000700070000600060000500050000400040000300030000200020000100010000--资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究究5展览8每周的销量和同比变化每周销售单位等号左一周结束了一级层23级28个城市一级边3级28个城市2022-01-30772022113175131584-48层-352-57-402022-02-061115752991966-87-98-97-962022-02-13373214784206420580137424482022-02-2065011960423082841312357-13572022-02-27518922864211330166-49-24-61-342022-03-06409820502202726627-54-31-57-382022-03-13376919759155025078-53-36-65-422022-03-20403216395122621653-45-56-71-562022-03-27473723574132729638-41-42-65-432022-04-03442723971125129649-33-41-59-412022-04-1025161205186515432-48-66-68-642022-04-1750801688690122867-22-62-72-572022-04-2442381876993423941-50-50-74-522022-05-01355416844106121459-60-57-72-592022-05-0824841067179013945-51-73-76-712022-05-15383418388106323285-20-58-74-562022-05-22305218580110022732-48-52-66-522022-05-29356422288123527087-28-46-63-462022-06-05365619976115224784-60-55-68-572022-06-12542024644122831292-18-30-53-302022-06-1995363207013274293383-7-3932022-06-26698639622124847856-23-11-53-152022-07-03658344275274253600-11-61-72022-07-10744620591137129408-8-42-48-372022-07-1755132166512322841016-37-39-312022-07-2460442185410332893146-26-55-202022-07-315441250081290317391-35-45-312022-08-07542718578117225177-6-34-43-302022-08-14464516914109822657-23-33-38-322022-08-215927166981109237340-34-35-282022-08-28653820782101928339-15-33-41-302022-09-04531020558119527063-16-27-27-252022-09-115575133418851980110-54-54-452022-09-1866311542010172306818-52-58-422022-09-25732326830137435527579-11152022-10-02787533195113842208-112-3872022-10-091734948888712109-48-37-40-392022-10-166032190431300263758-33-47-282022-10-23662222295109930016-3-11-44-112022-10-30657524269156732411-21-191-192022-11-06540818343121724968-24-21-32-222022-11-1334451451798818950-47-38-25-392022-11-20516116731129023182-14-37-6-322022-11-27356317908101122482-50-34-6-372022-12-0454971791083324240-28-39-34-372022-12-1157651789197124627-1-41-29-342022-12-18459318612127224477-34-41-7-392022-12-25392018521106323504-50-54-38-532023-01-01763029138150738275-10-4-12-52023-01-08611816418116623702-7-18-22-152023-01-1566862165312252956425-10-32-52023-01-2229371226666115864-43-45-65-462023-01-2952732883904205-93-85-78-87资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究6第二节每周的二级市场数据销量同比变化一级两个城市北京深圳二线城市七城杭州南京南宁青岛苏州无锡厦门三线一个城市扬州展览9每周的销量一级城市展览10每周的销量二线城市单位销售单位一级城市单位销售单位二线城市年平均二线城市18000年平均一级城市2000016000180001400016000140001200012000100001000080008000600060004000400020002000--来源风摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究来源风摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究7展览11每周的销量和同比变化每周销售单位等号左边一周结束了一级层210个城市一级层210个城市2022-02-06123-1000-1000-10002022-02-13207825374687638-341782022-02-202764356464485554574932022-02-27343240277592-402-493-4532022-03-06364246198396-334-484-4292022-03-13397848288923-376-525-4722022-03-20356239247586-413-644-5662022-03-27409936037796-353-640-5352022-04-03371646468469-419-531-4912022-04-10235324654859-475-740-6582022-04-17402046598793-327-625-5312022-04-244670538410326-303-607-5032022-05-01385946978823-310-604-5042022-05-08178122624154-349-711-6142022-05-15301448748098-479-580-5442022-05-22264551768080-544-500-5092022-05-29234657618423-621-478-5212022-06-05209650427382-580-473-5022022-06-122654742010289-334-52-1462022-06-193033777311155-216-50-932022-06-263289722810843-382-266-3002022-07-033927754711782-303-147-2022022-07-10299161729507-333-238-2622022-07-173485633510149-252-155-1802022-07-242979731110607-32961-762022-07-313917699711247-245259362022-08-07325260859610-234294742022-08-14323359719486-215164262022-08-213453623610002-120150702022-08-28362452509199-53-64-252022-09-043647560795342633703662022-09-1131145296870015-19272022-09-18312445537960-155-187-1492022-09-253945581399956006396332022-10-0246965544106114955945772022-10-091207180131413652173032022-10-163463550492581121921832022-10-233557618399812143302972022-10-3036946113101471482522362022-11-063599562394703561992712022-11-13306657869167342311792022-11-20315458119219-081661202022-11-27265759968947-210222712022-12-04228656438203-372139-572022-12-11219060218408-378216-212022-12-18200966459001-403386872022-12-25224532335692-440-326-3612023-01-01362833697093-228-250-2362023-01-08221759088303-1123131642023-01-15388465751075925106932023-01-22166336945558-539-331-3982023-01-2953610201651-843-767-790来源风摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究8第三节月度一级市场数据销量同比变化一线四大城市北京上海深圳广州二线城市24个城市长春长沙成都重庆大连东莞佛山福州海口杭州合肥济南南昌南京宁波青岛沈阳苏州天津温州武汉无锡西安郑州三线城市28个城市包头北海蚌埠东营固安呼和浩特黄石江阴九江廊坊泸州南通泉州汕头韶关绍兴苏州泰安芜湖香河襄阳徐州烟台宜昌岳阳肇庆中山舟山展览12每月的销量一级城市展览13每月的销量二线城市th单元销售单位一级th单元销售单位-Tier260销售单位等号左边一100350销售单位等号左边-Tier2100级80805030060602504040402020020300150020-20-20100-40-401050-60-60--80--80资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究究表14每月的销量三线城市表15每月的销量总数56个城市th单元销售单位-3级th单元销售单位总120销售单位等号左边-3级100450销售单位等号左边总1008040080100603506040803004020250206002000-2040150-20-40-60100-4020-8050-60--100--80资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研资料来源CREIS摩根士丹利MorganStanley的研究究9表16月度销量同比变化MonthlySales单位等号左日期一级层23级56个城市一级边3级56个城市2019-01196021527554466721702417层-132-30-152019-0210169942574009514452114-11-7-82019-032010418852758447267078649-1162019-0422593198866625172839764894102019-05299211923306055928281051-7-20-62019-062239521132464985298704264-532019-072265921848864865306012-37352019-082144119322659299273966-2-4-5-42019-091977519437364725278873-21-316-12019-1020924178159623492614325-1-3-12019-11236421851685608026489041-208-112019-122337321343060539297342-3-610-32020-011649513266241128190285-16-13-8-122020-023630278161026641712-64-70-74-712020-031289111810048914179905-36-37-16-332020-041827616579958659242734-19-17-6-152020-052277919728864802284869-243712020-062399522731773878325190781492020-072444922111075309320868811652020-08283872100287111530953032920132020-0936515204758700513113248558122020-103037020024375391306004451221172020-113668320915174632320466551333212020-124264624561981862370127821535242021-0142697198246789493198921594992682021-0223544121246626252074155493365103972021-0334272221346880583436761668780912021-042992624666077166353752644932462021-05241142469967348334459362513212021-063183523467175811342317333352021-0726343203591618312917658-8-18-92021-0828606167629554352516701-20-22-192021-092469316705959865251617-32-18-15-192021-102731214497656093228381-10-28-26-252021-112847515056650134229175-22-28-33-282021-123069518786352595271153-28-24-36-272022-012622612212639596187948-39-38-50-412022-02170628133634261132659-28-33-45-362022-031888613146941149191504-45-41-53-442022-04161309558328955140668-46-61-62-602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