当前聚烯烃库存水平偏低，节后PE累库23万吨至94万吨，PP累库23万吨至59万吨，累库幅度偏低，近5年春节PE累库29-49万吨之间，PP在25-46万吨之间，库存绝对水平偏低，近5年PE节后104-124万吨之间，PP节后在56-87万吨之间。上周开工变动不大，2月检修预期较1月下降，2月预期投产新装置PE120万吨，PP100万吨，产能投放压力较大。进口方面，由于11月以来进口成交较好，2-3月进口预计增量明显。产能投放临近，需求尚待验证，短期价格偏空
研究报告全文：银河期货聚烯烃周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年02月06日银河能化微信公众号主要观点当前聚烯烃库存水平偏低节后PE累库23万吨至94万吨PP累库23万吨至59万吨累库幅度偏低近5年春节PE累库29-49万吨之间PP在25-46万吨之间库存绝对水平偏低近5年PE节后104-124万吨之间PP节后在56-87万吨之间上周开工变动不大2月检修预期较1月下降2月预期投产新装置PE120万吨PP100万吨产能投放压力较大进口方面由于11月以来进口成交较好2-3月进口预计增量明显产能投放临近需求尚待验证短期价格偏空GALAXYFUTURES1PE概述项目基本面及变化节后这周PE累库存总库存环比增加234万吨至94万吨其中两油库存累库146万吨煤化工累库51万吨港口累库12万吨库存贸易商累库25万吨今年春节后PE累库幅度偏低近5年累库幅度在29-49万吨之间库存绝对水平偏低往年春节后库存在104-124万吨之间1月PE产量235万吨环比增长43同比增长33检修损失16万吨环比下降9万吨2月检修损失预估在87万吨上周产量PE负荷968环比下降05个百分点海南炼化30HD30全密度和揭阳石化40HD80全密度均预期在2月份投产新产能压力较大2022年12月PE进口量109万吨环比下降138同比增加04全年进口量1347万吨同比下降77进口依赖度由进出口2021年的39下降至35上周美金报价较节前明显上调工厂配售额不多美金人民币开始接近倒挂美金成交不多进口窗口从去年11月份开始到今年1月份多数时间都处在打开状态美金成交也较好未来1-2月进口量预计会有明显增加12022年12月PE消费335万吨环比下降34同比增长242022年全年PE消费3859万吨同比增长3342上周农膜开工环比上升10个百分点至30包装行业开工环比上升4个百分点至41中空行业开工环比上升4个百分点至需求29管材行业开工环比上升8个百分点至28312月塑料制品出口金额为9482万亿美元环比增加28同比下降32022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长93期现价差上周塑料下跌主力合约周度收跌277至8279华北现货周度收跌061至8200基差走强186至-79上周油价下跌612至807油制利润上涨520元吨至511元吨煤制利润下降25元吨至72元吨LLDICIS美金价格上涨利润20美元吨至1010美元吨进口利润下降174元吨至-90元吨进口窗口关闭GALAXYFUTURES2PP概述项目基本面及变化节后这周PP累库存总库存增加23万吨至587万吨其中两油累库128万吨煤化工累库82万吨贸易商累库14万吨港口累库存库01万吨PP今年春节累库幅度中性偏低近5年累库幅度在25-46万吨之间库存绝对水平偏低往年节后在56-87万吨之间1月PP产量263万吨环比增加05同比增加691月检修损失量314万吨环比下降12万吨2月检修损失预估在21万吨产量1月下降10万吨左右上周PP负荷899环比上升02个百分点海南炼化50万吨装置广东石化50万吨装置共100万吨装置预期在2月投产新装置压力较大2022年12月PP进口量437万吨环比增加76同比增加142全年进口量451万吨同比下降6进口依赖度由2021年的138下降至126进口窗口从去年11月份开始到今年1月份多数时间都处在打开状态美金成交也较好未来1-2月进口量预计会有明显增加因近期外盘价格上涨明显上周美金报价上调报盘量及配售额较少美金货成交量有限进出口2022年12月PP出口量52万吨环比下降17同比下降622022年PP出口量127万吨同比下降86上周初国内供应商将出口报价调升至1080-1090美元吨此价格对买家吸引力不大另外日韩供应商竞争性出货至南美及东南亚等地因此周初PP出口难以成交周中随着日韩供应商可售量消耗殆尽中国PP转口成交有所好转然而整体出口量依然很有限12022年12月PP消费333万吨环比增长53同比增长932022年全年PP消费3587万吨同比增长3322上周塑编行业开工环比上升11个百分点至37BOPP行业开工环比上升3个百分点至51注塑行业开工环比上升10个百分需求点至3832022年12月塑料制品出口金额为9482万亿美元环比增加28同比下降32022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长93期现价差上周PP下跌主力合约周度收跌235至7963华东现货周度收跌153至7730主力基差走强72至-233上周油制PP利润上涨520元吨至161元吨煤制PP利润上涨35元吨至32元吨PDH利润上涨230元吨至-1167元吨PPICIS利润美金价格上涨15美元吨至960美元吨进口利润下降277元吨至28元吨GALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章PE主要数据5第二章PP主要数据22GALAXYFUTURES4PE产业链价格分类名称2023020320230120上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅分类名称2023020320230120上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅布伦特现货价807860934-5-612-13-1365油制PE利润511-921855199-556342-16745-7664原油布伦特主798877893-8-894-9-1061CTO利润72971226-250-2591-11548-9417WTI主732817884-8-1036-15-1712LL进口利润含税-9084-429-1741-207513389-7898CFR日本701685680531522-105-1299LL进口利润免税137308-175-1706-55383128-17839石脑油FOB鹿特丹705715816-108-150-1115-1366利润LDPE进口利润109149408-398-2676-2993-7329煤坑口煤价9409408360000104124HD薄膜进口利润-42139-108-1809-13043661-6105江苏出罐ICIS2687527132835-255-094-1475-520HD中空进口利润-136233107-3692-15839-2432-22709甲醇CFR中国ICIS30252935333590307-31-930HD注塑进口利润-124-4236-82019584-1594-44883甲醇主力267527752823-1000-360-148-524HD拉丝进口利润139295-507-1563-52946455-12742CFR东北亚831766981650849-150-1529LLDCFR中国10109901190200202-1800-1513CFR东南亚8718411016300357-145-1427LD薄膜CFR中国109010451535450431-4450-2899乙烯FD美国海湾美分磅212241-09-402-20-4877HD中空CFR中国94258951115475531-1725-1547FD西北欧欧元吨9599841313-250-254-354-2696PECFR中国HD薄膜CFR中国9859551195300314-2100-1757L01822384008777-1770-211-554-631HD注塑低熔指CFR中国93089010425400449-1125-1079L05827985158890-2360-277-611-687HD注塑高熔指CFR中国9759351070400428-950-888L09824284658808-2230-263-566-643HD注塑不分熔指CFR中国952591251070400438-1175-1098PE华北LLD820082508750-500-061-550-629LLDCFR东南亚105110011241500500-1900-1531LD华北8850890011750-500-056-29000-2468LLDFOB中东9869661131200207-1450-1282PE价格HD膜8200808087001200149-5000-575LLDFD西北欧116111911581-300-252-4200-2657HD中空79507950845000-5000-592LLDFAS休斯顿9939491346440464-3530-2623HD拉丝8100800084501000125-3500-414LDCFR东南亚11011101154100-4400-2855HD管材8400817590002250275-6000-667LDFOB中东106610561451100095-3850-2653HD注塑低熔7850775083501000129-5000-599LDFD西北欧122113161791-950-722-5700-3183L01基差-23-150-271270-846740-1481LDFAS休斯顿105910151412440433-3530-2500L05基差-79-265-1401860-7019610-4357HD膜CFR东南亚104110011221400400-1800-1474L09基差-42-215-581730-8047160-2759PE外盘价格HD膜FOB中东9869561131300314-1450-1282基差月差L1-5价差-56-115-113590-5130570-5044HD膜FD西北欧178618292203-430-235-4170-1893L5-9价差375082-130-2600-450-5488HD膜FAS休斯顿10379711335660680-2980-2232L9-1价差196531-460-7077-120-3871HD中空CFR东南亚10319611151700728-1200-1043LD-LLD650650300000-23500-7833HD中空CFR东南亚10319611151700728-1200-1043HD膜-LLD膜0-170-501700-10000500-10000HD中空FD西北欧174317862147-430-241-4040-1882HD中空-LLD膜-250-300-300500-1667500-1667HD中空FAS休斯敦9939271335660712-3420-2562HD拉丝-LLD膜-100-250-3001500-60002000-6667HD注塑CFR东南亚10219611111600624-900-810非标价差HD管材-LLD膜250-752003250-433335002500HD注塑FD西北欧174317862147-430-241-4040-1882HD注塑-LLD膜-350-500-4001500-3000500-1250HD注塑FAS休斯敦9939051302880972-3090-2373PE回料含税68906890694400-543-078L-PP现货470400400700700PE新料-回料131013601806-500-368-4958-2745L-PP01281256355250-740L-PPL-PP05316360421-440-1050L-PP09283315384-320-1010资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES5PE利润PE成本202323840083401200082798300100008204820082008000811381006000800040007889200079007800202014202034202054202074202094202114202134202154202174202194202214202234202254202274202294202011420211147700油制成本CTO成本进口成本免税7600进口成本含税L主力L现货油制成本CTO成本进口成本免税进口成本含税L主力L现货油制PE利润煤制PE利润45001000035008000250060004000150020005000-2000500-40001500-600011213141516171819110111112125001121314151617181911011111212011201220132014201520162017201820192020201820192020202120222023202120222023资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES6PE利润缠绕膜利润LL进口利润PE新料-回料35001000350030008003000600250040020002500200150014815200001000200500150040001000600-500-5175800-10005001000112131415161718191101111121012001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212015201620172018201920182019202020212022202320202021202220232017201820192020202120222023双防膜利润地膜利润20003000250015001300200010001500100050050000-1165-500-5001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212016201720182019201620172018201920202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES7价格价差华北LLD现货L05季节性L05基差10500110001000100008009500100006009000850090004008000200750080000700065007000200600040055006000112131415161718191101111121600500080020162017201820195206207208209201020112012201202203204205206207208209201020112012201202203204202020202120222023L1805L1905L2005L2105L2205L2305L1805L1905L2005L2105L2205L2305L1-5价差L5-9价差L远期曲线80040086006008500400200840020083008200008100200800040020079007800现货L1701-L1705L1801-L1805L1901-L1905L2001-L2005L1805-L1809L1905-L1909L2005-L2009LL2305L2209L2101-L2105L2201-L2205L2301-L2305L2401-L2405L2105-L2109L2205-L2209L2305-L2309202302032023012020230113资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES8非标价差LD-LLDHD注塑-LLDHD中空-LLD45001500250040002000350010003000150050025001000200005001500-50010000500-1000-5000-500-1500-1000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820192015201620172018201920152016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023HD膜-LLDHD拉丝-LLDHD管材YGH041-LLD2500250030002000200025002000150015001500100010001000500500500000-500-500-500-1000-1000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020152016201720182019201620172018201920202021202220232020202120222023202120222023资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES9PE库存PE总库存PE两油库存PE煤化工库存1501408020130701206015110501001090408030570206050100112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201620172018201920162017201820192016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023PE贸易商库存PE港口库存PE交易所库存265072445622405203541830163251421220110151121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111210112131415161718191101111121201620172018201920162017201820192016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创wind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES10PE库存LD库存两油煤化工LLD库存两油煤化工HD库存两油煤化工1840401614353512303010252582062015410152510112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201620172018201920162017201820192016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创wind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES11PE新装置投产2022-2023年PE国内投产装置合约产能新装置地点原料PELDHDLL全密度投产时间镇海炼化一体化项目期低压浙江宁波石脑油30302022年1月1PE镇海炼化一体化项目期低压L2205135浙江宁波石脑油30302022年1月2PE浙江石油二期浙江舟山油制35352022年2月浙江石油二期浙江舟山油制40402022年3月乙烷裂L220940连云港石化有限公司期江苏连云港40402022年8月解2022年合计175401350海南炼化海南洋浦经济开发区油制30302022年2月海南炼化海南洋浦经济开发区油制30302023年2月广东石化炼化揭阳石化广东揭阳油制40402023年2月L2305220广东石化炼化揭阳石化广东揭阳油制80802023年2月轻烃裂山东劲海化工有限公司山东菏泽40402023年4月解2023年合计220110110资料来源卓创ICIS隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES12PE检修变动PE装置检修动态检修状态公司装置产能万吨停车时间开车时间燕山石化HDPEA线7202211252023130浙江石化HDPE30202212242022115兰州石化老全密度装置620231112023113近期开车中天合创釜式LDPE装置1220231122023116茂名石化1LDPE装置1120231192022122独山子石化新HDPE装置302023130202322沈阳化工LLDPE装置1020211014开车时间待定镇海炼化HDPE30202235暂不确定海国龙油全密度40202243暂不确定中原石化全密度装置620221011待定正在检修万华化学HDPE装置35202211132023215齐鲁石化老全密度装置12202321202324兰州石化HDPE老线85202323暂不确定兰州石化HDPE新线85202323暂不确定资料来源卓创ICIS隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES13PE产量开工PE产量季节性PE周度产量28065260602405522050200454018035160301402512020100110210310410510610710810910101011101210123456789101112201820192020202120182019202020212023预期202220232023E20222023PE周度检修损失检修损失季节性PEPE负荷1600501100451400105040120010003510009503080025900600208504001580020010750500070011021031041051061071081091010101110121001323334353637383931031131231234567891011122017201820192020201720182019202020182019202020212021202220232023预期2021202220232023E202220232023E资料来源卓创ICIS隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES14PE生产比例停车比例线性生产比例30552550204515401035530025112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201420152016201720182016201720182019201920202021202220232020202120222023HD生产比例LD生产比例50181645144012351030825611213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120142015201620172018201420152016201720182019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源windIHSICIS银河期货GALAXYFUTURES15进口利润LL进口利润LD进口利润HD膜进口利润1000350020008003000150025006001000200040050015002001000005005004913220001000400500150060010002000800150020002500100011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112112001121314151617181911011111212016201720182019201620172018201920182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023HD中空进口利润HD注塑进口利润HD拉丝进口利润250015002000200010001500150010001000500500500000500500500100010001000150015002000150020001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111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