研究报告全文：玻璃纯碱数据日报202328品种日内观点玻璃7日纯碱盘面下行玻璃窄幅震荡走弱玻璃纯碱主力合约价差缩小至1389元吨现货方面产销较好德金浮法玻璃现货价下滑24元吨金宏阳现货价下调8元吨纯碱近期有个别装置调整开工率上升到922浮法玻璃产线暂时纯碱稳定但日熔量未有明显变化整体库存均有下降建议关注玻璃反弹和纯碱走强产业链数据项目数据环比项目数据环比5mm浮法玻璃德金现货价1464-24玻璃2309结算价1605-225mm浮法玻璃金宏阳现货价1560-8玻璃2305结算价1540-28期现货市场重质纯碱华北主流价30000纯碱2309结算价2522-43轻质纯碱华北主流价28000纯碱2305结算价2929-40重质纯碱华东主流价30500轻质纯碱华东主流价27500玻璃2309基差-4514玻璃9-1价差270玻璃2305基差2020玻璃5-9价差-65-6基差及价差纯碱2309基差47843纯碱9-1价差358-14纯碱2305基差7140纯碱5-9价差4073重质-轻质纯碱价差2000纯碱-玻璃主力合约价差1389-12煤炭燃料的浮法玻璃利润-12937华北氨碱工艺纯碱利润9501100利润石油焦燃料的浮法玻璃利润6140华东联碱工艺纯碱利润18436127天然气燃料的浮法玻璃利润-18612注册仓单玻璃仓单数量925925纯碱仓单数量533279浮法玻璃开工率78810光伏玻璃产能利用率9518140企业指标纯碱开工率922011中国玻璃周度库存75148-974中国轻重纯碱周度库存3167-293主要图表图1玻璃现货价格元吨图2重质纯碱现货价格元吨40003500280030002300250020001800150013001000浮法玻璃5mm大板市场价沙河德金玻璃日浮法玻璃5mm大板市场价沙河河北金宏阳日纯碱重质华北主流价纯碱重质华东主流价图3轻质纯碱现货价格元吨图4玻璃09合约基差40000010003500008003000006004002500002002000000150000200100000400600纯碱轻质华北主流价纯碱轻质华东主流价FG2309基差FG2209基差FG2109基差图5玻璃05合约基差图6纯碱09合约基差1000SA2109基差SA2209基差SA2309基差80020006001500400200100005002004000600-50005-1706-1707-1708-1709-1710-1711-1712-1701-1702-1703-1704-17-1000FG2305基差FG2205基差FG2105基差915101511151215115215315415515615715815图7纯碱05合约基差图8玻璃9-1价差SA2105基差SA2205基差SA2305基差FG2109-2201FG2209-2301FG2309-240120008001500600400100020050000-200-500-400-600-1000116216316416516616716816916515615715815915101511151215115215315415图9玻璃5-9价差图10纯碱9-1价差FG2105-2109FG2205-2209FG2305-2309SA2109-2201SA2209-2301SA2309-240130050040020030020010010000-100-100-200-200-300-400-300-500915101511151215115215315415515116216316416516616716816916图11纯碱5-9价差图12重质-轻质纯碱价差SA2105-2109SA2205-2209SA2305-2309400000800003500007000060000300000800500002500006004000020000030000400150000200001000010000020000050000-100000000-20000-200-400-600915101511151215115215315415515纯碱轻重价差纯碱重质华北主流价纯碱轻质华北主流价图13纯碱-玻璃主力合约价差图14浮法玻璃利润元吨400000200000玻璃以煤炭为燃料的浮法工艺理论利润中国周350000150000300000玻璃以石油焦为燃料的浮法工艺理论利润中国周25000010000020000050000玻璃以天然气为燃料的浮法工艺理论利润中国周150000000100000200050000-50000000-100000150010005002020-04-202020-12-202021-04-202021-06-202022-06-202022-08-202020-02-202020-06-202020-08-202020-10-202021-02-202021-08-202021-10-202021-12-202022-02-202022-04-202022-10-202022-12-20纯碱-玻璃价差期货收盘价5月交割玻璃FG02020-04-172020-10-172021-04-172021-10-172022-04-172022-10-17期货收盘价5月交割纯碱SA-500图15不同工艺纯碱利润元吨图16玻璃仓单数量3000201920202021202220232500500020004000150010003000500200001000-5002018-01-082019-01-082020-01-082021-01-082022-01-082023-01-080重质纯碱氨碱法利润华北地区周重质纯碱联产法利润华东地区除山东周图17纯碱仓单数量图18浮法玻璃开工率2020202120222023929012000881000086800084600082804000782000020192020202120222023图19光伏玻璃产能利用率图20纯碱开工率9895969094859280907588867084658260201920202021202220232020202120222023图21中国玻璃周度库存万重量箱图22中国轻重质纯碱周度库存万吨1200020010000150800060001004000502000001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途