>> 东吴期货-铁合金数据日报-230207
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6日双硅主力合约盘面宽幅震荡,收盘小幅上涨,盘面有所回调,现货成交较为活跃,宁夏硅铁现货价连续下调50元/吨度至7900元/吨,天津港澳矿、加蓬矿回调0.5元/吨度,氧化铁皮原料价格下调,硅铁除宁夏地区外利润上浮,硅锰利润上浮。从基本面来看,双硅整体偏弱,上周数据显示,双硅供给端有增量,需求回升有所好转,但总体供大于求的局面没有发生变化,库存继续增加。双硅盘面下方存在空间,有随情绪继续下行的可能性。操作上建议区间操作,轻仓做空。
研究报告全文:铁合金数据日报202327品种日内观点6日双硅主力合约盘面宽幅震荡收盘小幅上涨盘面有所回调现货成交较为活跃宁夏硅铁现货价连硅铁续下调50元吨度至7900元吨天津港澳矿加蓬矿回调05元吨度氧化铁皮原料价格下调硅铁除宁夏地区外利润上浮硅锰利润上浮从基本面来看双硅整体偏弱上周数据显示双硅供给端有增量需求回升有所好转但总体供大于求的局面没有发生变化库存继续增加双硅盘面下方存在空硅锰间有随情绪继续下行的可能性操作上建议区间操作轻仓做空产业链数据项目数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价7900-50硅铁2305结算价802834内蒙硅铁现价80000硅铁2309结算价795642期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价73500锰硅2305结算价74164内蒙锰硅现价74000锰硅2309结算价73382硅铁2305基差-128-84硅铁9-1价差-28-18硅铁2309基差-56-92硅铁5-9价差72-8基差及价差锰硅2305基差-16-4锰硅9-1价差-2-2锰硅2309基差62-2锰硅5-9价差782宁夏硅铁利润7475-29宁夏锰硅利润-2976460利润内蒙硅铁利润763521内蒙锰硅利润-3396460硅铁2305145万08万锰硅2305185万-02万持仓情况硅铁230905万01万锰硅230905万00万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202021202081202161202171202221202241202251202281202311202011202031202041202051202061202071202091202111202121202131202141202151202181202191202211202231202261202271202291202321202011202061202121202141202151202181202211202231202261202271202021202031202041202051202071202081202091202111202131202161202171202191202221202241202251202281202291202311202321202012120211012020101202011120211112021121202210120221112022121202010120221112020111202012120211012021111202112120221012022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁09合约基差SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差8000700060006000500040004000300020002000100000-1000-2000-2000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰09合约基差SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差4000400035003000300025002000200015001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图9硅铁9-1价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925002000150010005000-500-1000-1500-2000916101611161216116216316416图11硅锰9-1价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23095001500400300100020010050000-100-200-500-300-400-1000117217317417517617717817917918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途
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