研究报告全文：证券代码8399792022-12-29焦煤焦炭早报大越期货投资咨询部单钧投资咨询证Z0016468联系方式0575-85226759每日观点焦煤1基本面产地部分煤矿受疫情持续影响产量依旧较低同时年底临近部分煤矿因安全检查及已完成年度任务等因素影响有停减产情况焦煤市场供应持续收紧然下游采购积极性下降加之贸易商需求减少影响部分高价煤种成交情况不佳中性2基差现货市场价2340基差455现货升水期货偏多3库存钢厂库存8384万吨港口库存1076万吨独立焦企库存9894万吨总样本库存19354万吨较上周增加827万吨偏空4盘面20日线向上价格在20日线上方偏多5主力持仓焦煤主力净空空减偏空6预期随着部分焦钢企业冬储接近尾声焦钢企业采购积每极日性观有点所放缓同时原料端部分煤种价格相对较高焦钢企业存有抵触情绪采购多相对谨慎预计焦煤偏稳运行焦煤23051840-1890区间操作焦炭1基本面随着焦炭四轮提涨落地后焦企盈利能力回升开工水平逐步提升然受疫情影响焦企提产积极性有所降低积极发货为主钢厂焦炭库存多在中等水平加之钢厂处于亏损状态对焦炭维持刚需采购偏多2基差现货市场价2930基差243现货升水期货偏多3库存钢厂库存586万吨港口库存2073万吨独立焦企库存51万吨总样本库存8443万吨较上周减少10万吨偏多4盘面20日线向上价格在20日线下方中性5主力持仓焦炭主力净空多空翻多偏多6预期当前钢厂利润仍有明显亏损铁水产量小幅回落对焦炭需求有所下滑采购积极性开始下降但钢厂厂内焦炭库存依旧偏低补库需求仍存预计短期内焦炭或暂稳运行焦炭23052640-2690区间操作焦煤焦炭基本概览期货12-2712-27涨跌期货12-2712-27涨跌JM2301247125055-345J23012990530115-21JM2305188519275-425J2305268727565-695JM2309179818325-345J230925902645-55JM2301-JM23055865788J2301-J23053035255485JM2305-JM23098795-8J2305-J2309971115-145现货12-2812-27涨跌现货12-2812-27涨跌日照港准一级冶金焦主焦煤-柳林245024500出库价27802800-20基差-焦煤截止到12月28日焦煤基差为455现货升水1944450020004000150035003000100025005002000150001000-5005000-100022222222222222222222222222222220000000000000000000000000000000111111111111111111112222222222255556666777788889999000011112220001000100基0差1000柳林1主0焦0煤0100期0货10001001147014701581258125823692369247001111222200001112220010122220015006401754375649597290952438682基差-焦炭截止到12月28日焦炭基差为243现货升水期货82950001600450014004000120035001000300080025006002000400150020010000500-2000-400201705232018052320190523202005232021052320220523基差准一级冶金焦-日照港期货港口库存截止到12月22日焦煤港口库存为1076万吨较上周增加57万吨焦炭港口库存2073万吨较上周减少61万吨焦炭港口库存焦煤港口进口库存6000080000700005000060000400005000040000300003000020000200001000010000000147101316192225283134374043464952147101316192225283134374043464952201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022独立焦企库存截止到12月22日独立焦企焦煤库存9894万吨较上周增加522万吨焦炭库存51吨较上周增加28万吨焦煤焦化厂库存焦炭焦化厂库存250270000200220000150170000100120000507000001357911131517192123252729313335373941434547495113579111315171921232527293133353739414345474951201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022钢厂库存截止到12月22日钢厂焦煤库存8384万吨较上周增加248万吨焦炭库存586万吨较上周减少67万吨焦煤钢厂库存焦炭钢厂库存13000010009501200009008501100008007501000007006509000060055080000135791113151719212325272931333537394143454749518889888888888889888813645433679095412788465494907532017201820192020202120221991437045140275520917372019824201895720202202712320292焦炉产能利用率全国230家独立焦企样本产能利用734周环比增加09焦炉产能利用率950090008500800075007000650013579111315171921232527293133353739414345474951201720182019202020212022吨焦平均盈利全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利52元较上周增加74元独立焦化厂吨焦平均盈利12001000800600400200013579111315171921232527293133353739414345474951-200-40020182019202020212022高炉开工率高炉开工率80007500700065006000550050004500400013579111315171921232527293133353739414345474951201720182019202020212022高炉生产利润高炉生产利润2500002000001500001000005000000011346891111112222223333739517-5000012467902457802353951739517395173-100000201720182019202020212022铁水产量全国247家钢厂日均铁水产量260250240230220210200190135791113151719212325272931333537394143454749512019202020212022证券代码839979THANKS地址浙江省绍兴市越城区解放北路186号7楼电话0575-88333535E-maildyqhdyqhinfo