本篇报告更新的数据为英国10月份整体及各业务科室的诊疗量、新加坡和中国台湾10月份整体诊疗量、日本9月份整体诊疗量。
　　从业务科室来看，各业务科室整体诊疗量随英国10月份新冠确诊人数上升而下降。其中刚需科室优于非刚需科室，刚需科室中肿瘤优于生殖，生殖优于综合；非刚需科室中眼科优于整形外科，整形外科优于口腔。
　　从整体诊疗量来看，英国、新加坡、中国台湾10月诊疗量均随着当地疫情确诊人数上升而呈现下降趋势，其中门诊下降幅度大于住院，专科门诊下降幅度大于全科。日本9月的诊疗量随当地新冠确诊下降而有所回升，其中住院恢复更为显著。
　　风险提示：海外数据可比性风险、行业政策风险、疫情反复风险、并购扩张不及预期风险、医疗事故风险。

研究报告全文：证券研究报告医疗服务行业报告海外医疗服务行业9-10月月度数据更新整体诊疗量随确诊病例上升而下降分析师盛丽华S1190520070003联系人何展聪hezctpyzqcom报告撰写时间2022年12月15日摘要本篇报告更新的数据为英国10月份整体及各业务科室的诊疗量新加坡和中国台湾10月份整体诊疗量日本9月份整体诊疗量从业务科室来看各业务科室整体诊疗量随英国10月份新冠确诊人数上升而下降其中刚需科室优于非刚需科室刚需科室中肿瘤优于生殖生殖优于综合非刚需科室中眼科优于整形外科整形外科优于口腔从整体诊疗量来看英国新加坡中国台湾10月诊疗量均随着当地疫情确诊人数上升而呈现下降趋势其中门诊下降幅度大于住院专科门诊下降幅度大于全科日本9月的诊疗量随当地新冠确诊下降而有所回升其中住院恢复更为显著风险提示海外数据可比性风险行业政策风险疫情反复风险并购扩张不及预期风险医疗事故风险1具体业务科室情况10月份英国各科室业务量均有所下滑刚需科室表现优于非刚需刚需中肿瘤优于生殖生殖优于综合非刚需中眼科优于整形外科整形外科优于口腔10月份整体诊疗量随新冠确诊上升而下滑刚需好于非刚需图表2020年M1至2022年M10英国医疗机构不同科室门诊人次恢复情况同比19年同期200防防二三防大计结边450封实疫疫次次控部划束境城行政政封封措分实防180防开400策策城城施防行疫疫放首再结逐疫防计计160次度束步措疫划划350放收放施计BB140松紧松终划止B300二120次封250100城20080150601004020500020M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M920M1020M1120M1221M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M10新冠确诊数万例00012931370878292206337131056356189912513172366617097957633185108159530103481270911870302183986315280218009157248942256194177815922287生殖15571547133936228947566497399291598411051293155517521089931111692010081042899115710551274152617771405151515041334125511861092肿瘤10351094107991388011351042105411681043114012511097123913611218115213571169128113301111130813201167132014291211129313161149137812961149普通外科9881003795405442674753865105110181107111080093111091089107312231053110111189981151109495110681122959104010228911059974863眼科10371046766381392546586672784757810844671790943928874103288592397284596292486296410299049909548541022949869整形外科1037105183543747568466970084277484388270679590390686410448608919568299889488729741010885946926801950902830普通内科96997377950457578177679681278183889887388310221131101010949329491023934103810409039601039960947922830912862759口腔951976689351390528583630753701792835597686788797771904793837886744915843721815858706810768686833768696康复923895740479443611627629750684747801529592684818808973891834884767894817607688758759840704643710669623资料来源NHS太平洋证券研究院整理P4综合10月份业务量恢复程度有所下滑图表2020年M1至2022年M10英国综合科室不同科室住院人次恢复情况取住院量前五科室同比19年同期120封防防二三防大计实结边450城疫疫次次控部划行束境政政封封措分实防防开400策策城城施防行疫疫放100首再结逐疫防计计次度束步措疫划划350放收放施计BB松紧松终划80止B300二次封250城602004015010020500020M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M920M1020M1120M1221M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M10新冠确诊数万例00012931370878292206337131056356189912513172366617097957633185108159530103481270911870302183986315280218009157248942256194177815922287血液科1065108797065562481581279791485786891078485898092586510408999179698439579348689571027919908968865995994890肠胃科10601068785280350543624696802812832833721820936906896995885901932858934894868938968874946903852961932876普通内科9991006827641739907901938982926924919901959101998899410719819901010941988931887951994910929944870941927886普通外科10061020741352492653751809846842840872673778888901897931866870881842879905829904921857878853831914891835创伤和骨科9951011733240302412508629729735707706479513653800821921833820826767853824697796849800851841780873840782资料来源NHS太平洋证券研究院整理P5眼科10月份业务量有所下滑但手术量仍在19年同期以上图表2020年M1至2022年M10英国眼科不同业务诊疗人次恢复情况同比19年同期140450封防防二三防大计实结边城疫疫次次控部划行束境政政封封措分实防防开400120策策城城施防行疫疫放首再结逐疫防计计次度束步措疫划划350放收放施计BB100松紧松终划止B300二次80封250城200601504010020500020M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M920M1020M1120M1221M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M10新冠确诊数万例00012931370878292206337131056356189912513172366617097957633185108159530103481270911870302183986315280218009157248942256194177815922287眼科服务-手术10661080727128153296470616780789799822564649863958946109795798510159231018986935108511431041114911051009120511621028眼科服务-门诊10371046766381392546586672784757810844671790943928874103288592397284596292486296410299049909548541022959869验光9519166993373794556607127687868909377247769609018879539009209747879769567348499598339608869611123976858小儿眼科10351011715340353483531593690670742796593700823871796909759797837729879849717827911803892847736872794724资料来源NHS太平洋证券研究院整理P6口腔10月业务量持续下滑图表2020年M1至2022年M10英国口腔不同业务门诊人次恢复情况同比19年同期120450封防防二三防大计实结边城疫疫次次控部划行束境政政封封措分实防防开400策策城城施防行疫疫放100首再结逐疫防计计次度束步措疫划划350放收放施计BB松紧松终划80止B300二次封250城602004015010020500020M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M920M1020M1120M1221M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M10新冠确诊数万例00012931370878292206337131056356189912513172366617097957633185108159530103481270911870302183986315280218009157248942256194177815922287口腔外科951976689351390528583630753701792835597686788797771904793837886744915843721815858706810768686833768696正畸10101011686132153339513561656641701731516633802786755908697782817696840772706792856732836797653826746681小儿牙科9891021596270370497538631653607673737564705756856834915762818862725879827710837899804968780697846720723修复990995582176198247323504468468575597410514612690777829676723711691825736684796836694935705630775670647资料来源NHS太平洋证券研究院整理P7肿瘤10月份业务量持续下滑但仍在19年同期之上图表2020年M1至2022年M10英国肿瘤不同业务门诊人次恢复情况同比19年同期160450封防防二三防大计实结边城疫疫次次控部划行束境政政封封措分实防开140防400策策城城施防行疫疫放首再结逐疫防计计次度束步措疫划划350120放收放施计BB松紧松终划止B300100二次封250城80200601504010020500020M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M920M1020M1120M1221M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M10新冠确诊数万例00012931370878292206337131056356189912513172366617097957633185108159530103481270911870302183986315280218009157248942256194177815922287肿瘤内科10351094107991388011351042105411681043114012511097123913611218115213571169128113301111130813201167132014291211129313161149137812961149妇科肿瘤103510239176756619289739571072986106811039381043115510991015116410181114116310011167117510641158122410721137110499212021133991小儿肿瘤99110441062911909117710561066109410001110116398410991292108010901261106311581112994118711161049116013521066119812401061131711091050临床肿瘤1057105510228667909789029251008905985101792510211115104399711761020108010829121104109710301124118010231085111097711351057924资料来源NHS太平洋证券研究院整理P8生殖10月份业务量持续下滑但仍在19年同期之上图表2020年M1至2022年M10英国生殖不同业务门诊人次恢复情况同比19年同期200450封防防二三防大计实结边城疫疫次次控部划行束境180政政封封措分实防防开400策策城城施防行疫疫放首再结逐疫防计160计次度束步措疫划划350放收放施计BB140松紧松终划止B300二120次封250城10020080150601004020500020M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M920M1020M1120M1221M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M10新冠确诊数万例00012931370878292206337131056356189912513172366617097957633185108159530103481270911870302183986315280218009157248942256194177815922287泌尿生殖15571547133936228947566497399291598411051293155517521089931111692010081042899115710551274152617771405151515041334125511861092助产1048105699197895211071051102411121046109211161047119412681185109512461143117112251096118511511110120812741180121512301122125812301133产科99099294385581097088887096787493998586997910699899151085928969101087510179858929561026892918948826942914811资料来源NHS太平洋证券研究院整理P9康复10月份业务量持续下滑整体恢复缓慢图表2020年M1至2022年M9英国康复不同业务门诊人次恢复情况同比19年同期120450封防防二三防大计实结边城疫疫次次控部划行束境政政封封措分实防防开400100策策城城施防行疫疫放首再结逐疫防计计次度束步措疫划划350放收放施计BB松紧松终划80止B300二次封25060城2004015010020500020M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M920M1020M1120M1221M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M10新冠确诊数万例00012931370878292206337131056356189912513172366617097957633185108159530103481270911870302183986315280218009157248942256194177815922287康复医学923895740479443611627629750684747801529592684818808973891834884767894817607688758759840704643710669623肺康复8607826784343644074764515686236987803813434164974846286005787236137728266396035755317048068048491013845心脏康复10021024766520427556567549621583661887578573678640612776673744757632776856678746851653753679525716684610资料来源NHS太平洋证券研究院整理P102各地区整体情况英国新加坡台湾10月份整体诊疗量随新冠确诊上升而下滑门诊下滑大于住院专科门诊下降幅度大于全科日本9月份整体诊疗量随新冠确诊下降而上升住院反弹大于门诊英国10月份整体诊疗量随新冠确诊上升而下滑图表2020年M1至2022年M10英国医疗机构不同科室门诊人次恢复情况同比19年同期120450封防防二三防大计实结边城疫疫次次控部划行束境政政封封措分实防开防400策策城城施防行疫疫放100首再结逐疫防计计次度束步措疫划划350放收放施计BB松紧松终划止B80二300次封城250602004015010020500020M120M120M121M121M121M122M120M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M921M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M922M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M90120120英国新冠确诊病例月度万0314932313566291132371788321089510312711930239915321892254262181623门诊量恢复情况100910218525405557617587969098439149537718681007977934108392497810228851037997902990106792910119848601019968862住院量恢复情况10081027795463528661715774850822815830697771880908909995909915944869925908838920954887930926861947938879手术量恢复情况102210388044134776316957558548408458807127879009259101012911920956875956948861944979904949940868976955749剔除新冠后住院量恢复情况10081027782418509652712772844802783784621740870905906990894896926851908881797893912850915904825928933874新冠住院量占比17983513050307253956109411104030516211921193049294441162442200506资料来源NHS太平洋证券研究院整理P12日本9月份业务量随新冠确诊下降有所回升图表2020年M1至2022年M9日本医疗机构诊疗人次恢复情况140700放放松松入120管600境制100500804006030040200201000020M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M920M1020M1120M1221M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M9日本新冠确诊病例万000002120302163315174684156454011515854116556230230506936228515501346979453327062192327门诊量971960929805748914883884948965902929853874985937881997915955991945960963908907998929918993909995984住院量总计992990979813744910874913939954938918878873989926880934876947918917967935933864952895921979866882911住院量剔除新冠992990979808736908867897924945922882838840965895832897855891854909965933907780878861893957825755845住院量精神病1009970953814822100792293798599393593289189110099228399838849139509419719679008139509019011023828857945住院量结核病913909104311239089581117116810629939611203103377510409781111925103012791191849837885106010911062916930903101612051202住院量疗养9899639878547949548838869599509069438858871014923842994883949960927979995906860104994995310648699131036住院量一般991991977805738904866904931946927901857860977907858918859909893911963929906828925874904965837840885新冠住院量占比00000005110208181609174148392535584125637408020229108844030235116979资料来源厚生劳动省太平洋证券研究院整理P13日本9月床位使用率仍低于疫情水平图表2019-2022年各月份床位使用率比较20192020202120229080706050403020100M1M2M3M4M5M6M7M8M9M10M11M12资料来源厚生劳动省太平洋证券研究院整理P14新加坡10月整体业务量随新冠确诊上升而下降图表2020年M1至2022年M10新加坡医疗机构门诊和住院人次恢复情况120疫边疫40情境情管管管控控控放逐进35100松步一放步松放30松802560201540102050020M120M120M121M121M121M122M120M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M921M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M922M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M90120120新加坡新冠确诊病例月度万00000115190908050100000001000001010102032710168166936338010210513627412867195总体住院10249778458338308818849019319458779429149809779788318889059049869119008909399959999579371021967895924886总体门诊9339358275545078708119211010973945102091810241085958710989852974988866940102390899410069158931109872990984877资料来源StatisticsSingapore太平洋证券研究院整理P15新加坡10月整体住院量随新冠确诊上升而下降图表2020年M1至2022年M10新加坡医疗机构住院人次恢复情况120疫边疫40情境情管管管控控控35100放逐进松步一放步松放30松802560201540102050020M120M120M121M121M121M122M120M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M921M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M922M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M90120120新加坡新冠确诊病例月度万00000115190908050100000001000001010102032710168166936338010210513627412867195总体住院量10249778458338308818849019319458779429149809779788318889059049869119008909399959999579371021967895924886公立住院量104297587287386389890292195695788993693498299799683391593593410269289269119751029104098696910621009908937895私立住院量963986757692717820822831846903836964846976910917825795800802851852807814817875863855828879820850880853资料来源StatisticsSingapore太平洋证券研究院整理P16新加坡10月急症医院住院量随新冠确诊上升而下降图表2020年M1至2022年M10新加坡急症医院住院人次恢复情况12040疫边疫情境情管管管控控控35100放逐进松步一放步松放30松802560201540102050020M120M120M121M121M121M122M120M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M921M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M922M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M90120120新加坡新冠确诊病例月度万00000115190908050100000001000001010102032710168166936338010210513627412867195急症医院住院10219688438228218718788989309458779429129749779778258869039039828988908899349809799499351018957886919872公立急症医院10379678708668618898979199569558889349309749949908259119329321019911915909968100910169779641057995897931877私立急症医院961973750661677806809821839908836969846975918927825793802799852851801816810873848848831876821849876850资料来源StatisticsSingapore太平洋证券研究院整理P17新加坡10月社区医院住院量随新冠确诊上升而上升图表2020年M1至2022年M10新加坡社区医院住院人次恢复情况250疫边疫40情境情管管管控控控35放逐进200松步一放步松放30松251502010015105050020M120M120M121M121M121M122M120M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M921M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M922M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M90120120新加坡新冠确诊病例月度万00000115190908050100000001000001010102032710168166936338010210513627412867195社区医院住院1092121790711571230113010321047941956899931978117496710551033947948997114213261252909106215251575118097311051224110910441271公立社区医院119712699551234118412541058112193510699559671116134811391333122910671113114114351773159710151229212220781421114712751626133611511641私立社区医院990116385910831279100310059669468418418918459927937878238247738418328688937909018991066948787930798864930892资料来源StatisticsSingapore太平洋证券研究院整理P18新加坡10月门诊人次随新冠确诊上升而上升图表2020年M1至2022年M10新加坡门诊人次恢复情况140疫边疫40情境情管管管控控控35120放逐进松步一放步松放30100松258020601540102050020M120M120M121M121M121M122M120M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M921M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M922M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M90120120新加坡新冠确诊病例月度万00000115190908050100000001000001010102032710168166936338010210513627412867195专科门诊量8998307574844138328259501055101010281118947109111721014706107191010491028867974108294099910269599221167862933907774急症门诊量1085965984789681757739818838824800774846881923929747748803835849805803730887983890849971975982864889903全科门诊量9541057896645626957873959101296088698791810041040912719976857945982871920102391210291025900870108788310641073967口腔诊所门诊量8587436281888857648266692199410069718139511044942609838569881934884102110447437808798097701025742935923822资料来源StatisticsSingapore太平洋证券研究院整理P19中国台湾10月诊疗量随新冠确诊上升而下降图表2020年M1至2022年M10中国台湾门诊人次恢复情况120250疫情管控100大幅200放松80150601004050200020M120M120M121M121M121M122M120M120M220M320M420M520M620M720M820M921M121M221M321M421M521M621M721M821M922M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M90120120中国台湾新冠确诊病例月度万000000000000000000000000000000000806010000000000020203921917173482172011531251门诊量8761101880832874103198198810629431016102491610201087102379070280390196590510241025928996112094893397490510491078959住院量9191092864826867952961947967952996102697299110131008838604713800851872923956927863961901723736819879931921资料来源台湾省卫生福利部太平洋证券研究院整理P20