点评
　　 19日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力2401收于14540元/吨，日内跌幅1.36%，持仓量增仓4222手至35839手。百川硅参考价15395元/吨，较昨日下调55元/吨。其中#553各地价格区间回落至14350-15300元/吨，#421价格区间回落至15900-16450元/吨。最低交割品#421价格降至13950元/吨，现货贴水590元/吨。节后下游以消耗节前备货为主，现货市场成交偏冷、注销期临近大量仓单向1月合约转移。基本面来看，工业硅新增不确定性高，大厂复产进度偏缓。多晶硅滞后产能随着利润空间打开后落地较为顺畅。当前期现回归、现货偏紧和套利空间紧缩下，盘面将受到较大冲击，存在一定向下压力，仍需持续关注后续期货仓单注销表现。
　　

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年10月20日一研究观点点评19日工业硅震荡偏弱主力2401收于14540元吨日内跌幅136持仓量增仓4222手至35839手百川硅参考价15395元吨较昨日下调55元吨其中553各地价格区间回落至14350-15300元吨421价格区间回落至15900-16450元吨最低交割品421价格降至13950元吨现货贴水590元吨节后下游以消耗节前备货为主现货市场成交偏冷注销期临近大量仓单向1月合约转移基本面来看工业硅新增不确定性高大厂复产进度偏缓多晶硅滞后产能随着利润空间打开后落地较为顺畅当前期现回归现货偏紧和套利空间紧缩下盘面将受到较大冲击存在一定向下压力仍需持续关注后续期货仓单注销表现请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅2023101920231018涨跌SIZLGFE1454014780-240期货结算价元吨SI00GFE1362013665-45不通氧553硅华东14650146500不通氧553硅黄埔港14550145500不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港14550145500元吨不通氧553硅昆明14500145000不通氧553硅四川14350143500不通氧553硅上海15000150000通氧553硅华东1525015300-50通氧553现货价格通氧553硅黄埔港1530015350-50元吨通氧553硅天津港1515015200-50通氧553硅昆明1530015350-50421硅华东15950159500421硅有机硅用华东1640016450-50421硅黄埔港1605016100-50421现货价格元421硅天津港16050160500吨421硅昆明15900159000421硅有机硅用昆明16450164500421硅四川16350163500无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东14650146500不通氧553硅黄埔港14700147000不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港14650146500元吨不通氧553硅昆明15000150000市场行情不通氧553硅四川14900149000421硅华东15950159500421硅有机硅用华东1640016450-50421硅黄埔港1620016250-50421现货价格元421硅天津港16150161500吨421硅昆明16400164000421硅有机硅用昆明16950169500421硅四川16900169000现货553与421价差155015500按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格13950139500现货升贴水-590-830240下游DMC华东市场14800148000DMC东岳有机硅000DMC合盛硅业14500145000有机硅元吨生胶15000150000107胶15300153000二甲基硅油16200162000复投料单晶用80000800000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用78000780000菜花料单晶用76000760000硅片元片单晶M6M10G122652693726526937000000000电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G120610570606105706000000000单晶perc单面16618221010911611811312123-004-004-005光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面16618221011117119114121124-004-004-005本周上周涨跌黄埔港25000250000天津港35000350000工业硅吨社会昆明港13000130000库存厂库5064059700-9060DMC吨厂库49000442004800多晶硅吨厂库6115072250-11100资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧553421-55370000350006000030000500002500040000200003000015000200001000010000500000-5000202072202083202092202281202052202189202197202211202359202367202376202384202394202111320212192021323202142320215282021630202173020218312022112202221820223222022425202253020226302022831202211920221292023111202321720233212023421202352620236292023731202383020231092020531202062920207282020826202092420211182021216202131720214152021514202161220217112021106202111420211232022130202222820223292022427202252620226242022723202282120229192023113202321120233122023410202310320201023202011212020122020221018202211162022121520201012202011112020121120211011202111102021121020221010图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-600002020722020832020922022812022122022232022372022482023152023262023812023922021113202121920213232021423202152820216302021730202183120221122022218202232220224252022530202263020228312022119202212920231112023217202332120234212023526202362920237312023830202310920221182022219202232320224242022510202252620226112022627202271320227292022814202283020229152022101202211220221242023121202322220233102023326202341120234272023513202352920236142023630202371620238172023918202310420201012202011112020121120211011202111102021121020221010202210172022111820221220图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州80040007003500600300050025004002000300150020010001005000020207220213420214820227720232220208620226220233920218220221320224120226620235220229220232320237720209102021128202151320216172021722202182620219302021129202221720224282022915202341320236222023831202310520211142022113202232420228112023518202372720221252022423202251520226282022924202211720232252023319202341020235242023729202382020239112023103202182420219152021107202221620223102022720202281120231122023615202010152020111920201224202211242022102020221229202110292021112020211212202210162022112920221221资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价700007000060000600005000050000400004000030000300002000020000100001000000202072202214202222202233202241202379202387202399202072202139202143202186202213202258202262202327202334202377202381202073120208292020927202112120212192021320202141820215172021615202171420218122021910202110920211172021126202243020225292022627202272620228242022922202311620232142023315202341320235122023610202310820207272020821202091520201142021118202121220214282021523202161720217122021831202192520211292022128202222220223192022413202262720227222022816202291020221052023113202332920234232023518202361220238262023920202010262020112420201223202210212022111920221218202010102020112920201224202110202021111420221030202211242022121920231015图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲35000080908300000707625000006520000005415000004303100000202500001010002021922022292022312022692022882023242023452023642023832021812021982022272022452022612022792022942023232023412023592023752021922202111120221202022321202241020224302022520202262920227192022828202291720221072022126202311520232242023316202342520235152023624202371420238232023912202310220218202021927202111420221192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求报告内容的客观公正但文中的观点结论和建议仅供参考并不构成任何具体产品业务的推介以及相关品种的操作依据和建议投资者据此作出的任何投资决策自负盈亏与本公司和作者无关请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES8