22日工业硅震荡偏强，主力2309收于13695元/吨，日内涨幅0.62%，持仓量增仓384手至66000手。百川硅参考价13767元/吨，较上个交易日上涨35元/吨。其中#553各地价格区间涨至12950-13750元/吨，#421价格区间涨至14650-15050元/吨。最低交割品#421价格12650元/吨，现货贴水9655元/吨。云南仓单增量助推市场流通和交投氛围继续回暖，叠加市场不断炒作预期向好，近期硅价向上动力较强。从基本面来看，西南供应扰动影响告一段落，需求端走出淡季后呈现一定反弹表现。供强需弱格局仍未转向，上涨势头多来自卖方坚持挺价，终端消化能力仍待观察。当前基本面对价格支撑力度不足，库存仍有一定增压风险，需谨慎看待后续上涨空间。

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年8月23日一研究观点点评22日工业硅震荡偏强主力2309收于13695元吨日内涨幅062持仓量增仓384手至66000手百川硅参考价13767元吨较上个交易日上涨35元吨其中553各地价格区间涨至12950-13750元吨421价格区间涨至14650-15050元吨最低交割品421价格12650元吨现货贴水9655元吨云南仓单增量助推市场流通和交投氛围继续回暖叠加市场不断炒作预期向好近期硅价向上动力较强从基本面来看西南供应扰动影响告一段落需求端走出淡季后呈现一定反弹表现供强需弱格局仍未转向上涨势头多来自卖方坚持挺价终端消化能力仍待观察当前基本面对价格支撑力度不足库存仍有一定增压风险需谨慎看待后续上涨空间请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅20238222023821涨跌SI00GFE136151355560期货结算价元吨SI01GFE136951362570不通氧553硅华东1340013300100不通氧553硅黄埔港1330013200100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1330013200100元吨不通氧553硅昆明1320013100100不通氧553硅四川129501290050不通氧553硅上海1375013650100通氧553硅华东137001365050通氧553现货价格元通氧553硅黄埔港137501370050吨通氧553硅天津港136001355050通氧553硅昆明13750137500421硅华东1465014500150421硅有机硅用华东14900149000421硅黄埔港1475014600150421现货价格元421硅天津港1475014600150吨421硅昆明14800148000421硅有机硅用昆明15050150500421硅四川15050150500无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东1340013300100不通氧553硅黄埔港1345013350100不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港1340013300100元吨不通氧553硅昆明1370013600100市场行情不通氧553硅四川135001345050421硅华东1465014500150421硅有机硅用华东14900149000421硅黄埔港1490014750150421现货价格元421硅天津港1485014700150吨421硅昆明15300153000421硅有机硅用昆明15550155500421硅四川15600156000现货553与421价差17001600100按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格1265012500150现货升贴水-965-105590下游DMC华东市场13600136000DMC东岳有机硅13600136000DMC合盛硅业13600136000有机硅元吨生胶13600136000107胶14100141000二甲基硅油15800158000复投料单晶用73000730000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用71000710000菜花料单晶用69000069000硅片元片单晶M6M10G12305334434294314419011020015电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G12081076075081076075000000000单晶perc单面166182210116123125116123125000000000光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面166182210117123126117123126000000000本周上周涨跌黄埔港39000390000天津港36000360000工业硅吨社会昆明港40000340006000库存厂库1281001236004500DMC吨厂库56300549001400多晶硅吨厂库7530075400-100资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所三图表分析请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧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图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-600002020722021152021232023272023382023472023692022122022212022332022422022522022612022712020731202083120209292020115202012420213112021412202151420216152021714202181220219102022118202222320223242022426202253020226292022728202282620229272022112202212120235112023712202381020221172022216202231820224172022517202261620227162022731202281520228302022914202292920231122023127202321120232262023313202332820234122023427202351220235272023611202362620237112023726202381020211020202111182021121720221230202210142022102920221113202211282022121320221228图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州800400070035006003000500250040020003001500200100010050000202084202182202194202292202072202096202182202219202259202278202354202373202296202314202335202010920211162021323202152820211072021119202211420223212022526202273120221052022117202311220233192023524202362620237292021218202142520216302022216202242320226282023214202342120219112021101202212920223102022419202261820228172022926202312420232132023325202352420237232021822202221820223302022529202272820221152023414202361320238122020111120201214202112122022121020211110202111302022101620221125202212152021122020211021资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所32下游产成品价格请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价7000070000600006000050000500004000040000300003000020000200001000010000002020722021482021562021632021712022472022552022622023292023392023462023542023612020722020992021122021442021752022152022472022782023182023532023832020730202082720209242021114202121120213112021729202182620219232022113202221020223102022630202272820228252022922202311220236292023727202072520208172020102202112520212172021312202142720215202021612202172820218202021912202110520221282022220202231520224302022523202261520227312022823202291520221082023131202322320233182023410202352620236182023711202010222020111920201217202110212021111820211216202210202022111720221215202010252020111720201210202110282021112020211213202210312022112320221216图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲350000809300000708072500006065200000054150000043031000002025000010100020219220221620223120224620227520231120234120235720238520232620218120219620223520226320227920229120231520234520237420219202021121202212420223192022512202253020227232022915202210320221182023119202331420235252023630202371820211082022211202242420226172022810202282820232242023419202361220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