研究报告全文：MN26Jul2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateSANYInternational631HKPositivetakeawaysfromZhuhaiplantvisitTargetPriceHK1620Wetogetherwith30investorsjoinedSANYIsplantvisittourinZhuhaisportPreviousTPHK1620machineryproductionbaseyesterday25JulyKeypositives1SANYIisUpDownside380confidentofachievingrevenuegrowthof10050YoYinoverseasportCurrentPriceHK1174machineryin2023E24E2revenuefromtelescopicforkliftwillpotentiallyreachRMB1bnin2023Eanddoublein2024E3electrificationofreachChinaCapitalGoodsstackersemptycontainerhandlersisonagoodtrack4grossmarginofWayneFUNGCFAlargeportmachineryisimprovingThepositivemanagementtonereaffirmsour85239000826positivestanceonthestructuralgrowthoutlookofSANYIWhilesharepricewaynefungcmbicomhkmarkedarecordhighyesterdayweexpectthemomentumtocontinuewithcatalystscomingfrompositiveguidanceuponthereleaseofinterimresultsinKatherineNGAugustReiterateBUYwithunchangedTPofHK16219x2023ESANYI85237618725katherinengcmbicomhkremainsoursectortoppickHugepotentialoftelescopicforkliftTelescopicforklift伸缩臂叉车isaStockDataMktCapHKmn372487productwidelyappliedinEuropeandtheUS80ofglobaldemandwithAvg3mthstoHKmn541majordownstreamapplicationsinindustrial70andagriculturalsector52wHighLowHK117464430TheglobalmarketsizeisRMB40bnSANYIhasbeencooperatingTotalIssuedSharesmn31728SourceFactSetwithfourmajorleasingcompaniesintheUSCurrentlySANYIstelescopicforkliftsareproducedinIndia150unitsofmonthlycapacitywherelabourShareholdingStructurecostisonlyhalfofthatinChinaDespitetheuseofoverseascomponentsSanyHeavyEquipment664inordertoreducetheriskoftariffinEuropeandtheUSSANYIisInvestmentsCompany339managedtomaintaincostadvantage10belowthemajorcompetitorsFreefloatSourceHKExsuchasJLGandJCBGrossmarginiscurrently25SANYIplanstobuildanewfactoryinTurkeySharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeElectrificationofsmallportmachineryElectricratiosofreachstackers1-mth197163正面吊andemptycontainerhandlers堆高机are20and803-mth2572696-mth435628respectivelyThepriceoftheelectricreachstackerisRMB3mnversusSourceFactSetthedieselmodelofRMB25mnTheannualoperatingcostofanelectric12-mthPricePerformancereachstackerisonlyRMB100kwhichismuchlowerthanthatofthedieselmodelRMB400-500kmakingitveryattractivetocustomersThecontinuouselectrificationwillhelpdriveASPgoingforwardLargeportmachinerySolidbacklogandmarginexpansionWiththeexpansionoflargeportmachinerycapacitySANYIisconfidentofexpandingthemarketshareSANYIrecentlyreceivedordersfor40unitsofgantrycranesfromHutchisonBesidesMaerskinordertoachieveitsSourceFactSetnet-zerotargetshasgraduallyincreasedtheprocurementofelectriccranesSANYIscurrentbacklogoflargeportmachineryisRMB3bnMostRelatedreportsimportantlygrossmarginhasbeensignificantlyimprovedto14versusSANYI631HKBUYFiringonallsingledigitlastyearcylinders8Jun2023linkSANYI631HKBUYAcquisitionofoilEarningsSummarygasfracequipmentapositivemoveYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25E13Apr2023linkRevenueRMBmn1019515537226952992435935SANYI631HKBUYCorenetprofitin202253YoYinlinewithexpectationYoYgrowth384524461319201Marginrecoveryin4Q21Mar2023AdjustednetprofitRMBmn1086716649243403226738745linkEPSAdjustedRMB035053077103123SANYI631HKBUYExpansiontonewenergyequipmentsectorwithanConsensusEPSRMBnana074097129ambitioustarget9Jan2023linkPEx23819313810487SANYI631HKBUYKeytakeawaysPBx3532282420frompost-resultscallandNDR2Nov2022linkYield1316223036ROE132178221245244Netgearing18311816512903SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk26Jul2023SANYIsZhuhaiproductionbaseFigure1ElectricreachstackerleftElectricemptycontainerhandlermiddleTelescopicforkliftrightinZhuhaiproductionbaseSourceCMBIGMFigure2WeldingrobotsworkinginZhuhaiproductionbaseSourceCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE226Jul2023OperatingassumptionsFigure3KeyoperatingassumptionsRMBmn201820192020202120222023E2024E2025ERevenueRoadheader10791408124918342970332134553524CombinedcoalminingunitsCCMU9661073164017332968400751296411Small-sizeportmachinery13051547179824593217394246515442Large-sizeportmachinery5516867208401377206626853222Miningtrucks8838895215122923501971449086Aftersalesservice4285546037061136125014001567Robot--40011501060118713301489Lithiumbatteryequipment-----60010001500Oilandgasequipment-----130431313694Total4417565673621023415651226952992435935GrowthYoYRoadheader538305-1134686191184020CombinedcoalminingunitsCCMU268011152857713350280250Small-sizeportmachinery453185162368308225180170Large-sizeportmachinery61324550167639500300200Miningtrucks285134091454588933717423272Aftersalesservice67929488171609100120120Robot---1875-78120120120Lithiumbatteryequipment------667500Oilandgasequipment------1400180Total780281302390529450319201GrossmarginRoadheader399406416431415420410410CombinedcoalminingunitsCCMU147251234164162175178180Small-sizeportmachinery321330330250250250250250Large-sizeportmachinery15090905050115122127Miningtrucks100120140133154165170170Aftersalesservice450380430370419380380380Robot--200200200190200200Lithiumbatteryequipment00----200220250Oilandgasequipment00----350345345Blendedgrossmargin289295276237238239238235SourceCompanydataCMBIGMValuationOurTPofHK162isbasedon19x2023EPEequivalenttohighendofthetradingrangesincetheupcyclestartingin2017Webelieveourtargetmultipleisjustifiedgiventhe33estimatedearningsCAGRin2023E-25EFigure4SANYIsPEbandFigure5SANYIsPBbandHKDHKD201619x31x18141616x1225x141212x1018x109x88612x65x4405x2200Jul-12Jul-15Jul-18Jul-22Oct-09Oct-12Oct-15Oct-18Oct-21Apr-12Apr-15Apr-19Apr-22Jan-13Jan-16Jun-17Jan-19Jun-21Jan-22Jun-11Jun-14Oct-15Oct-16Oct-17Oct-18Oct-19Oct-20Oct-09Oct-10Oct-11Oct-12Oct-13Oct-14Oct-21Oct-22Jun-14Jun-15Jun-16Jun-17Jun-18Jun-10Jun-11Jun-12Jun-13Jun-19Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Jun-23Mar-11Mar-14Mar-18Mar-21Feb-10Feb-17Feb-20Feb-23Dec-14Dec-17Nov-19Dec-20Nov-22Nov-10Dec-11Nov-13Nov-16Aug-10Sep-11Aug-13Sep-14Aug-16Aug-19Sep-17Sep-20Feb-14Feb-15Feb-16Feb-17Feb-18Feb-10Feb-11Feb-12Feb-13Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-23May-20May-23May-10May-13May-16SourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesMajorriskfactors1weaknessinminingactivities2developmentofnewproductsbelowexpectationand3reboundofrawmaterialcostsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE326Jul2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue73641019515537226952992435935Costofgoodssold5403780511908172712279227479Grossprofit196123903628542471328456Sellingexpense430567933136217952156Adminexpense70710531177208827233198Otherincome2373914476588681042Otherexpense311256890108Othergainslosses25734754454598719ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV000000EBITDA153517562287339644525307Depreciation249249293378462553EBIT128615071994301839904755Interestincome365159433443Interestexpense132120132162181183NetInterestincomeexpense966973119147140Pre-taxprofit119014381921289938434615Incometax139129252377500600Aftertaxprofit105213091669252233444015Minorityinterest650488117141Netprofit104512591665243432273875Adjustednetprofit104510871665243432273875Grossdividends40838552475510001201BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets120161421717191195322388028017Cashequivalents94113492690159018433506Accountreceivables32884272641686311137312256Inventories182125293283504660697331Prepayment359585700700700700STbankdeposits02150505050FinancialassetsatFVTPL402436802088108810881088Othercurrentassets158317821964242727563086Non-currentassets544865687763112651200312750PPE259133144066492856986477Deferredincometax296287298298298298Goodwill113011301130380238023802Othernon-currentassets143218382269223822062174Totalassets174642078524953307973588340767Currentliabilities7938917010836137311592817798Short-termborrowings264516879541054904754Accountpayables28934422664694421178913808Taxpayable197185155155155155Othercurrentliabilities220528753080308030803080Non-currentliabilities166728324014496452645264Long-termborrowings49317672691364139413941Othernon-currentliabilities117410651323132313231323Totalliabilities96051200214849186952119223061Totalshareholdersequity7839870110040119501442217296Minorityinterest208264152269410Totalequityandliabilities174642078524953307973588340767PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE426Jul2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation119014381921289938434615Depreciationamortization249249293378462553Taxpaid108185145377500600Changeinworkingcapital1055180816461748455Others366630177119147140Netcashfromoperations10709231084137422054252InvestingCapitalexpenditure33488588990012001300Others313589152919373443Netcashfrominvesting647296639283711661257FinancingDividendpaid3944514665247551000Netborrowings1321200162181183Proceedsfromshareissues30268000Others105317811050150150Netcashfromfinancing6022273773647861333NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear11039411349269015901843Exchangedifference1786000Cashattheendoftheyear94113492690159018433506GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue302384524461319201Grossprofit175219518495315186EBITDA140144302485311192EBIT173172323514322192Netprofit136205322462326201Adjnetprofit20840532462326201PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin266234234239238235EBITDAmargin209172147150149148Adjnetprofitmargin142107107107108108ReturnonequityROE140152178221245244GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx020201020100Currentratiox151616141516Receivableturnoverdays146813531255121012201200Inventoryturnoverdays11011017891880890890Payableturnoverdays159617101696170017001700VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE23819312813810487PB353221282420Divyield131625223036SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE526Jul2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6