研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary24Jul2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报TheAssetAsianG3BondBenchmarkReview2023GlennKoCFA高志和WehopeyoufoundourcommentariesandideashelpfulWeseektoelevateour85236576235glennkocmbicomhkeffortsandvalue-addfurtherinthecomingyearWehighlyappreciateyoursupporttousinSell-SideAnalystsofthepollsofTheAssetAsianG3BondBenchmarkReview2023ThankyouforyourtimeYoursupportwillmeanalottousCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩85239000801MarketsentimentimprovedpostChinaPolitburomeetingAsianIGspacecyrenangcmbicomhktightened1-3bpsthismorningNewissuesKORELE26tightened5bpsfromROlevelChineseTMTswerebetterbuyingLGFVsweretwo-wayskewedtobetterbuyingandwesawbuyinginterestsonChineseAT1JerryWang王世超ChinaPolicyPolitburosignalsmoreactivecreditpropertyeasingSee85237618919belowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchjerrywangcmbicomhkVEDLNVedantasaiditiscommittedtosetupsemiconductorandelectronicdisplayfabsinIndiaitsCEOsaidtheaverageinterestrateofitsnetdebtofUSD72bnis87VEDLNswereunchangedto05ptthismorningTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点AsiaIGspacehadaquietstartoftheweekyesterdayIGspreadslargelyunchangedInKoreaspaceDAESECHWOCUSNACFSHINFNKOEWPWpaperstightened1-2bpsTheotherrecentnewissuesHKLSPCKHH33sedged1-3bpstighterChineseSOEswereunchangedto1bptighterwithactivetwo-wayflowsTMTbenchmarksTENCNTtightened1-3bpsInfinancialsAMCspacewastradedatouchweakerHRINTHcurvewastraded025ptlowermainlydraggeddownbypoorsentimentinpropertysectorThefront-endCCAMCLswereunderbettersellingChinesepropertieswerebatteredamidfurtherweakeningsentimentCOGARD24snotablyplummeted16-17ptsandtherestofCOGARDsdropped5-8ptsacrossthecurveFTLNHDsLNGFORsfell7-10ptsROADKGGRNCH25-26sfell25-4ptsDALWANslowered2-3ptsSHUION23-26sdroppedanother325-575ptstoclosearound20ptslowerWoWInindustrialspaceWESCHI26lowered4ptsFOSUNI24wasmarkeddown175ptsMacaugamingpaperswerequietMPELsSANLTDswerebidup025ptInIndianspaceElsewhereVEDLNsweretraded175-325ptslowerGLPCHIsmoved1-15ptslowerIntheLGFVPerpspacessentimentremainedfragileamidtheongoingturmoilinpropertyspacedespitethenewsaboutDALWANremittingfundsforitsUSD400mnbonddue23JulThesellingflowspersistedinproperty-relatedLGFVssuchasZHHFGRCPDEVandinHKPerpssuchasNWDEVLHYSANfromPBsAMsHFsCPDEV26closed025ptlowerandPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk124Jul2023hoveredjustabove80NWDEVLperpsweretraded075-175ptslowerFlowsinthespaceswereotherwiseveryquietThereweresporadicinterestsinbenchmarkLGFVsShandongChongqingnamesremainedactiveSHDOIS24wasindicated03pthigherCQNANA26sCQLGST24swerebidup0125ptSOEPerpssuchasHUADIASINOCHperpswerebetterofferedLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeROADKG7PERP23120COGARD8012724253-168BNKEA5825PERP88210COGARD612040824187-159RISSUN9120917249809COGARD518011725162-113EAGRUY71205012566808FTLNHD458101525359-99ZHONAN31203082686106LNGFOR412011628664-93MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP040Dow052andNasdaq019ralliedhigheronMondayandChineseconceptsstocksperformedstrongUSJulMarkitmanufacturingservicePMIwere490524withthemarketexpectationof464540Euro-zoneJulMarkitmanufacturingservicePMIwere427511andbothlowerthanthemarketexpectationof435515TheUStreasuryyieldsmovementweremixedyesterdaythe251030yieldreachedat481413386392respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaPolicyPolitburosignalsmoreactivecreditpropertyeasingThepolitburoheldameetingyesterdaytomapouteconomicpoliciesforthesecondhalfyearThepolicymakersindicatedfurtherlooseningofcreditsupplyandpropertypolicyaheadItpledgedtoactivatecapitalmarketexpandconsumptionofdurablesandservicesandboostprivatebusinessconfidenceThepolitburoalsovowedtoresolvelocalgovernmentdebtrisksThemeetingcameupwithexcitingpolicygoalsyetwithoutspecificplansonhowtoachievethosegoalsSomeinvestorsmayremainskepticalabouttheeffectivenessofthoseabstractpoliciesasthegovernmentscredibilityhasbeendamagedsincelastyearThiscouldleadtoanunder-reactionofthemarkettopolicychangesWebelievethismeetingmarksanimportantchangeinpolicyattitudeasthepolicymakersmaybecomemoreactiveinpolicyeasingin2H23IftheleadersinChinaandtheUScouldmeetduringtheAPECLeaderSummitinNovembertoreducegeopoliticalriskrelatedtoTaiwanStraitthenChinawillfocusmoreonboostingeconomicgrowthwhileprivatebusinessconfidencecanseebetterimprovementnextyearFurthercreditlooseningThepolitburopromisedtoincreasethemagnitudeofcounter-cyclicalpolicyasitsignaledfurtherlooseningofcreditpolicyThePBOCislikelytolaunchadditionalcutofRRRLPRsinthesecondhalfyearBanksareencouragedtostrengthencreditsupporttoinnovationactivitymanufacturingandSMEsandrolloverpropertydeveloperdebtandlocalgovernmentcontingentdebtFurtherpropertyeasingThepolitburovowedtotimelyadjustrealestatepoliciesastherewasamajorchangeinsupply-demandrelationsinthepropertymarketWebelievethepolicymakersarenolongerworriedaboutupsiderisksofhousingpricesasthereisdemandshrinkageandoversupplyofhousinginmostcitiesThisjudgementpaveswayforfurtherlooseningofpropertypoliciesaheadLookinginto2H23morecitiesmayabolishhome-buyingrestrictionsandlowerdown-paymentratiosforfirst-homeandsecond-homebuyersTier-1citiesmaybethelasttoeaserelatedpoliciesashousingdemandisexpectedtoremainweakThepolitburoalsosaid224Jul2023toacceleratetherenovationofurbanvillagesandincreasesubsidizedhousingsupplyinthe21largestcitiestoimprovepeopleslivingconditionandstabilizepropertydevelopmentinvestmentToactivatecapitalmarketThepolitburosaidtoboostcapitalmarketactivitiesastheyareofgreatimportanceforChinastechinnovationandindustrialupgradeThepolicymakersdidnotgivespecificplansWebelievetherestorationofinvestorconfidenceisthekeytoboostcapitalmarketactivitiesToboostconsumptionofdurablesservicesThepolitburosaidtoexpandconsumptionbyincreasinghouseholdincomeandstimulateconsumptionofcarselectronicproductsandhomegoodsandpromoteconsumptionofserviceslikesportsleisureandculturaltourismThepolicymakersalsorequiredtoexpandthemiddle-incomegroupHowevertheydidnotgivespecificplansonhowtoachievethosepolicygoalsWeexpectsomemunicipalgovernmentsmayprovideconsumercouponsinconsumptionofrelateditemsTorestoreprivatebusinessconfidenceThepolitburorequiredcentralministriesandlocalgovernmentstosetupregularcommunicationmechanismswithprivateentrepreneursandforeigncompaniesItencouragedprivatebusinessestotakeriskswiththeanimalspirittoincreasegrowthpotentialThepolitburoalsosaidtostabilizeforeigncapitalinChinawhileincreasinginternationalflightsinfutureToresolvelocalgovernmentdebtrisksThepolitburosaidtomakeapackageofplanstoresolvelocalgovernmentdebtrisksandpushfortheriskresolutionofsmallandmediumfinancialinstitutionswithhighrisksNowthecentralgovernmentisauditingthecontingentdebtconditionoflocalgovernmentAftertheauditingthecentralgovernmentmayproposeapackageofplanstorelievelocalgovernmentdebtrisksIntheshorttermbanksmaybeguidedtorolloverlocalgovernmentdebtwithlowerratesInthelongtermlocalgovernmentsmaybeguidedtoreducetheirrolesininfrastructureconstructionClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFKoreaElectricPowerCorp10003yr5375T100---OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere102creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB107bnAsforMonth-to-date1271creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1216bnraisedrepresentinga177yoyincreaseChinasNDRCissuedanoticetoencourageandfacilitateprivateinvestment324Jul2023APLNIJAgungPodomoroLandobtainedIDR18trncUSD120mncreditfacilityfromBankDanamonforrefinancingCPDEVBeijingCapitalGroupissuedRMB15bnthree-yearMTNstorepaydebtsCOGARDMediareportedthatCountryGardensaiditisunawareofanysignificantundisclosedinformationthatcouldhavepotentiallycausedamajorimpactonitsbondpricesCRHZCHChinaResourcesLandraisedRMB3bnviadomesticperpswith302couponDAFAPGDaFaPropertiesannounceddismissalofwinding-uppetitionEVERREMediareportedthatChinaEvergrandeoffshorecreditorswillvoteondebtrestructuringplaninAugthecourtsanctionhearingswillbeheldinSeptFOSUNIFosunsubsidiaryShanghaiYuyuanannouncedtosellc5stakeinJinhuiLiquorforRMB599mnFRESHKFarEastHorizonappointedadvisorstoarrangeupdatedUSD4bnMTNandperpetualsecuritiesprogrammeOCTOWNOverseasChineseTownAsiaannouncedtofullyredeemitsUSD300mnseniorguaranteedperpson25AugVEDLNVedantasaiditiscommittedtosetupsemiconductorandelectronicdisplayfabsinIndiaitsCEOsaidtheaverageinterestrateofitsnetdebtofUSD72bnis87YUNINVYunnanProvincialInvestmentscheduledredemptionofRMB13bnbillson27JulFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidesthe424Jul2023informationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5