研究报告全文：12Apr2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaPolicyCreditexpansionpointstocontinuouseconomicrecoveryChinascreditsupplycontinuedtoexpandatfaster-than-expectedratesastheBingnanYEPhDpolicymakersadoptedeasingcreditpolicytoboostconfidenceandgrowth85237618967momentumMediumlongtermloanstohouseholdssignificantlyreboundedasyebingnancmbicomhkhousingmarketimprovedLoanstoenterprisescontinuedtoseerapidgrowthamideasingcreditsupplyconditionandstrongcreditdemandfromSOEsandKevinZhangLGFVsChinaseconomicrecoverywasstillunevenasGDPgrowthremained85253364682belowpotentialgrowthwithlimitedreflationriskThePBOChastomaintainkevinzhangcmbicomhkreasonableampleliquiditysupplyandeasingcreditconditiontosupportthegrowthWeexpectoutstandingcreditgrowthmaycontinuetoimprovepavingthewayforfurthereconomicrecoveryin2023-202450NewcreditbeatexpectationsagaininMarchfollowingtheRRRcutTotal45socialfinancingrose155YoYinMarchaftergrowing237YoYin2M2340TheRRRcutinMarchindicatesthePBOCseasingbiaswiththecreditpolicy35Newrenminbiloanstorealsectorgrew223YoYinMarchafterrising32230YoYin2M23Off-balancesheetOBSfinancingturnedpositiveinMarchas25banksacceptancefinancingstronglyrecoveredHowevercorporatebond20financingcontinuedtodeclineaslargeSOEsturnedtorenminbiloansfor15financingastheirborrowingratesfrombankswerelowerthanfinancingcosts10inthebondmarketBankshadtocompetefiercelyforthosehigh-quality20192020202120222023borrowersastheircreditsupplysignificantlyexpandedwhilecreditdemandPBOC7DrepoBanks7DrepofromprivatebusinessSMEsandhouseholdsremainedweakGovernment1YLPR5YLPRSourceWindCMBIGMbondfinancingalsodeclinedaslocalgovernmentslackedenoughhigh-qualityprojectsforfinancingYoY313MortgageloansimprovedwhilecorporateloanscontinuedtoexpandForhouseholdsectornewmediumlongtermloansandshort-termloans12respectivelyrose70and584YoYinMarchafterdropping556and2111818YoYin2M23Bothhousingmarketandserviceconsumption10recoverednoticeablysupportingmortgageandconsumerloansinMarchCorporateloanscontinuedtogrowfastinMarchasnewMLtermloansto19enterprisesrose539YoYinMarchafterincreasing77YoYin2M23Bill8discountfinancingremainednegativeinMarchindicatingcreditsupplyforSMEswasrelativelytepid072017201820192020202120222023PBOCwillmaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostconfidenceandgrowth7DShiborLHSM2YoYRHSmomentumChinaseconomicrecoverywasstillunevenPassengermobilitySourceWindCMBIGMserviceactivityandSOEssentimentrapidlyreboundedHoweverexportsremainedweakastherecentbankingsectorturmoilinUSEuropeincreasedrecessionriskandaccelerateddisinflationtrendPrivatebusinessconfidenceremainedlowasgeopoliticaleconomicandpolicyuncertaintycontinuedtoexistChinasGDPgrowthwasstillbelowthepotentialgrowthasreflationriskwaslowThepolicymakerswillfocusonboostingconfidenceandgrowthbymaintainingeasingmacropoliciesandcontinuingtosendpro-businesssignalsThePBOCwillmaintainaccommodativecreditpolicyascreditgrowthmaycontinuetoimprovethisyearPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk12Apr2023Figure1GrowthofoutstandingOBSfinancingFigure2GrowthofoutstandingbondfinancingYoYYoY40253020201015010102053040020162017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023EntrustedloanTrustloanBanksacceptanceCorporatebondGovernmentbondSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure3TotalsocialfinancingFigure4OBSfinancingRmbbnRmbbn700060020202021202220236000400200500004000200300040020006002020202120222023100080010000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSourceMoFCMBIGMSourceMoFCMBIGMFigure5BondfinancingFigure6NewMLtermloanstohouseholdsRmbbnRmbbn200010001500800600100040050020000JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec200500JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE212Apr2023Figure7NewshorttermloanstohouseholdsFigure8NewMLtermloanstoenterprisesRmbbnRmbbn8003800600330028004002300200180001300200800400300600200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure9NewshorttermloanstoenterprisesFigure10BillfinancingtoenterprisesRmbbnRmbbn160090014001200600100080030060040002000300200400600JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20202021202220232020202120222023SourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure11GrowthofcreditmoneysupplyFigure12M1growthM1asofM2YoYYoY17303316322531152030141529132810271252611250241052392016201820202022201420152017201920212023201620172018201920202021202220232013OutstandingsocialfinancingRMBloanM1LHSM1asofM2RHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE312Apr2023Figure13PBOCclaimstolargeandSMbanksFigure14TotalsocialfinancingCSI300indexRmbtrnYoYindex717600065500515500044500313400023500111300002500201420152016201720182019202020212022202320139200020162017201820192020202120222023PBOCclaimstolargebanksPBOCclaimstoSMbanksTSFoutstandingLHSCSI300indexRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure15Dailydomestictrafficflowintier-1citiesFigure16Newmortgagehousingsalesmillion7DMAYoY4016035110302560201015104059001402017201820192020202120222023DailysubwaypassengerflowNewmortgageHousingcontractsalesvalueSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure17GrowthofhousingsalesbycitiesFigure18GrowthoflandsalesYoY2YCAGRfor2021YoY2MMA2MMA1109040903560703050302530201001510103030550600702017201820192020202120222017201820192020202120222023GFAforlandsalesLHSTier1citiesTier2citiesTier3citiesLandpricepremiumtobasepriceRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE412Apr2023Figure19InfrastructureinvestmentFigure20US-SinointerestspreadsYoYYoYpptUSRMB6025375502040301517201010105100652053304010201720182019202020212022202356LocalgovernmentlandrevenueLHS20082010201220142016201820202022US-Sino1YT-bondspreadLHSInfrastructureinvestmentRHSUSRMBspotrateRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure21Sino-USgrowthgapRMBUSchangeFigure22NetforexinflowpptUSbn2010120880156440102004052480061208510160200620082010201220142016201820202022200Sino-USnominalGDPgrowthgapLHS20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023RMBUSchangeRHSBanksnetforexpurchaseBanksnetforexreceiptSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure23MoneymarketfundingcostFigure24Bondmarketrates50745640535304253202152017201820192020202120222023107YT-bond7YAAACorporatebond201820192020202120222023YueBao3MShibor6MNCD7YAACorporatebondSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE512Apr2023Figure25ChangeofmarginbalanceanddailynetFigure26EMvolatilityandnorthboundflowtoA-buyingonmarginshareRmbbnRmbbnindexRmbbndailyaverage300180601025055815050200645150120404100903525030006025250203041001515001062017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023MoMchangeofmarginbalanceLHSEMETFvolatilityindexLHSDailynetbuyingonmarginRHSNorthboundinflowtoAsharesRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE612Apr2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7