研究报告全文：12Apr2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyWeakinflationpointstoeasingpolicystanceaheadChinasconsumerinflationslowedto18-monthlowinMarchasfoodenergyBingnanYEPhDpricesretreatedanddomesticconsumptionrecoverywasinagradualmanner85269895170ThePPIfurtherdeclinedasglobaldemandforgoodsdroppedwithadisinflationyebingnancmbicomhktrendRecentdatashowedChinaseconomicresumptionwasstilluneveninMachasserviceactivitystronglyrecoveredbutmanufacturingperformancewasKevinZhangtepidamidweakexportsWeexpectChinasinflationtoremainlowin2Q23and85253364682topickupgraduallyin2H23-1H24CPIgrowthisexpectedtoslightlyrisefromkevinzhangcmbicomhk22in2023to25in2024andPPIisprojectedtodrop05in2023beforerising16in2024TheweakinflationshouldpointtoeasingmacropolicystancethisyearasitindicatesChinasGDPgrowthremainsbelowthepotentialgrowthYoYwithlimitedreflationriskThepriorityfortheChinesepolicymakersistorestore16confidenceandgrowthmomentumbymaintainingeasingmacropoliciesand1412sendingpro-businesssignals1086CPIgrowthhit18-monthlowasfoodenergypricesretreatedand42consumerdemandremainedweakCPIincreased07YoYinMarch0downfrom10lastmonthCoreCPIrose07YoYinMarchafterclimbing2406inFebruaryasdurableconsumptiondemandremainedweakand6supply-sidecompetitionwastoughWithintheCPIbasketfoodinflation20192020202120222023CPIPPIslowedfrom26inFebruaryto24inMarchwhilefuelpricedropped01ForecastnumbersfromMarch2023afterrising07Amongfooditemspricesofporkandfruitrose96andSourceWindCMBIGM115YoYinMarchduetolowbaseslastyearhowevervegetablepriceYoYYoYdropped111YoYinMarchassupplyimprovedwiththetemperature340Amongnon-fooditemspricesofhomeappliancesvehiclesandtelecom330equipmentrespectivelydropped0233and22YoYsuggestingslow220demandrecoveryandtoughcompetitioninsomedurablesPricesofservice210itemssuchaseducationandhomeservicecontinuedtorisebutataslower10paceHousingrentdroppedforthe11thconsecutivemonthastheemployment110andincomeconditionfortheyoungremainedunpleasant020130PPIfurtherdeclinedasoverseasrecessionriskincreasedand20192020202120222023disinflationacceleratedPPIdropped25YoYinMarchafterdecreasingCoreCPILHS14YoYinFebruaryPPIincoalminingoilgasminingferrousmetalsFoodpriceRHSFuelpriceRHSandnon-ferrousmetalsrespectivelydropped32157110and8SourceWindCMBIGMYoYinMarchastheoverseasbankingsectorturmoilhitcommoditypricesinMarchbycausingconcernsaboutcreditsqueezeandeconomicrecessionPPIinequipmentwasalsoweakasoverseascapexanddurableconsumptionslowedamidhighinterestratesandeconomicuncertaintyFromtheMoMperspectivePPIofferrousmetalscomputerselectronicsandliquorbeveragerose1304and02whilecoalpaperproductsandcrudeoilgasdropped1211and09WemaintainforecastforCPIgrowthat22andthatforPPIgrowthat-05in2023TheCPIgrowthmayremainlowinMarchandAprilandthengraduallyclimbastheeconomycontinuestorecoverWeexpecttheCPIgrowthtoreach22in2023and25in2024ThePPImayfurtherdeclineinAprilbeforegraduallyimprovingin2H23WeexpectthePPItodrop05in2023andrise16in2024TheweakinflationindicateseasingpolicystanceaheadChinaseconomicrecoverywasstillunevenPassengerflowrapidlyresumedafterPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk12Apr2023ChinasreopeningbutconsumerconfidenceremainedweakServiceactivityimprovednoticeablybutindustrialoutputseemedtepidwithweakexportsTheweakinflationindicatesChinasGDPgrowthremainsbelowthepotentialgrowthwithlimitedreflationriskThepriorityforthecountryistorestoreconfidenceandgrowthmomentumbymaintainingeasingmacropoliciesandsendingpro-businesssignalsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE12Apr2023Figure1MoMChangesofChinaCPIinMarchMoM135MilkPorkGrainTourismClothingMedcineVehiclesTabaccoFootwearVehiclefuelVehiclePublicutilityPublicAlcholdrinksAlcholHousingrentHousingHomeserviceHomeMedicalserviceMedicalExpressserviceExpressHomeapplianceHomeTelecomserviceTelecomEducationserviceEducationTelecomequipmentTelecomSourceWindCMBIGMestimatesFigure2ChinaCPIGrowthinStaplesFigure3ChinaCPIGrowthinDurablesYoYYoY68564432201021426201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023MilkAlcoholicdrinksWesternmedicinesHomeappliancesVehiclesTelecomequipmentSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure4ChinaCPIGrowthinServicesFigure5Hog-to-grainRatioinChinaYoY765432101220192020202120222023EducationHousingrentHomeserviceSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE312Apr2023Figure6ChinaCoreCPIGrowth2YT-bondRatesFigure7Second-handCarPriceinShanghai43210120162017201820192020202120222023CoreCPIYoY2YT-bondratesSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure8MoMChangesofChinaPPIinMarch2MoM112CoalFoodstuffMedicinesAutomobileEquipmentProductsFerrousMetalsFerrousTextileApparelTextileMetalProductsMetalProductsCrudeoilgasoilCrudePaperProductsPaperOtherTransportOtherProcessingLiquorBeverageLiquorGeneralMachineryGeneralNon-ferrousMetalsNon-ferrousNon-metallicMineralNon-metallicChemicalMaterialsMaterialsChemicalPetroleumOtherFuelOtherPetroleumComputersElectronicsComputersRubberPlasticProductsPlasticRubberSourceWindCMBIGMestimatesFigure9ChinaPPIinEnergyMetalFigure10ChinaPPIinEquipmentYoYYoY1203100280601400200120240603201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023GeneralequipmentCoalMiningOilGasMiningAutoFerrousMetalsNon-ferrousMetalsComputertelcomelectronicequipSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE412Apr2023Figure11GlobalM2GrowthCommodityInflationFigure12GlobalSupplyChainPressureYoYYoYindexindex2570405000602035450050304000154030253500102020300010515250000101020002051500530010001040201320142015201620172018201920202021202220235500100M2growthofUSCNJPEurozoneLHS201820192020202120222023RJCRBindexRHSNewYorkPMIdeliverytimeLHSBDIRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure13ManufacturingCapacityUtilisationRatioFigure14Copper-to-goldRatio90425085210380170751302709065150202220122013201420152016201720182019202020212023602011201820192020202120222023US10Ybreak-eveninflationLHSChinaUSJapanGermanyCoppertogoldpriceratioRHSSourceWindCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMFigure15ChinaAutoHousingSalesFigure16InfrastructureInvestmentinChinaYoYYoY602550204015302010105001052030104015201720182019202020212022LocalgovernmentlandrevenueLHSInfrastructureinvestmentRHSSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE512Apr2023Figure17OperationRateinChinaFigure18MOUTAIWholesaleReferencePriceRmb903900803700703500603300reopening5031002900402700SHlockdown30250020201620172018201920202021202220232021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022023-03DeformedsteelbarAsphaltplan2021-09SourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure19MobilityIndicatorsinChinasTier-1CitiesFigure20PBOCPolicyRatesLiquidityCondition50454035302520151020192020202120222023PBOC7DreverserepoBanks7Drepo1YLPR5YLPRSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE612Apr2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7