>> 南华期货-国债日报:海外就业数据回落-230406
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2023/4/6 |
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南华期货 |
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新湖期货-LPG日报-230407 |
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[市场回顾]:国债期货早盘一度高开低走,此后回升,整体未脱震荡态势。收盘T、TF主力合约微涨,TS主力合约微跌。 [资金市场]:资金利率有所上升,但资金面仍然宽松。公开市场进行7天期逆回购80亿,净回笼4310亿。隔夜Shibor报1.34%,上行23.7bp。 [行情研判]:国内消息方面较为清淡。海外方面,美国就业数据接连传出利空,2月JOLTS职位空缺2021年来首次降至1000万以下,3月美国ADP就业数亦不及预期,本周非农数据或将给出更多指引。若数据显示经济出现衰退迹象,Fed停止加息并在年内开始降息的可能性将加大,对国内债市略微利好,但影响有限。短期内继续推动期债上行的因素有限,警惕回落的可能。
研究报告全文:TTFTS7804310Shibor134237bp2JOLTS202110003ADPFedTFTS100345100940100830002000-0016164847899263901167911928414117709710413961223245735-1483合约走势60000000持仓变动1015010100400000001010010090200000001005010080000001000010070-20000000995010060-40000000-6000000099001005020230213202302272023031320230327TFTTSRHSTSTFT1000000000主力合约成交量主力合约持仓量200000000080000000080000000016000000006000000006000000001200000000400000000400000000800000000200000000200000000400000000000000000000000TSTFTTFTTSRHS2年期活跃券基差1015TS-TF跨品种价差101003004010080250301010020100601502010040101005010005100200000010001000220028200005RHS价差右元TS2306CFETF2306CFE5年期活跃券基差2TS-T跨品种价差10101010303508081005303006061000302504049953020020299030150000230002220022RHS价差右元TS2306CFET2306CFE121510年期活跃券基差2TF-T跨品种价差10151022111310201010101110180910051016080910000710140799506101205059901010220017220025RHS价差右元T2306CFETF2306CFE220825192700283628610940260520010151Y3Y5Y7Y右10Y右曲线形态298301027082528825062327821042682019021725815001Y3Y5Y7Y10Ybp右2023-04-062023-04-04中美利差bpbp美债10-2利差5003000040020000200001500030010000100002000005000100-10000000000-20000-5000-10000-15000中美利差RHS美债10Y国债10YDR001134721772938430135594DR00719681074969687551DR01419575212986314364R0011274-1862000-6699608R0072179204000-662169R01423491009000-81867bp银存间资金价格走势资金日变动35303000292320002017100011051000000-1000DR001DR007DR014DR021DR1MDR2MDR3MDR001DR007DR014bp右2023-04-062023-04-04千元bp质押式回购成交量资金分层120000000000000750010000000000000055008000000000000035006000000000000015004000000000000020000000000000-50000000-25002023-01-042023-02-042023-03-042023-04-04DR001R001隔夜七天
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