评级及目标价：维持“收集”评级，调低目标价至6.70港元，相当于21.7倍/11.8倍/8.1倍2023 /2024/ 2025年EV/EBITDA。
　　2022年业绩差于预期，主要由于行业不景气导致收入及毛利率减少，以及做出大额金融资产拨备。此外，PC构件新签合同额下跌56.7%至人民币21.41亿元。
　　由于公司已完成全国布局，未来将不会再做出大额资本开支。随着业务逐步改善，自由现金流将持续增加，公司或将恢复派息。此外，随着行业洗牌加快，公司PC构件市占率将提高，而潜力庞大的数字化EPC业务收入将持续快速增长。
　　催化剂：1）《政府采购支持绿色建材促进建筑品质提升政策项目实施指南》出台，刺激装配式建筑产品需求；2）政府维持相对积极的财政政策和相对宽松的货币政策，支持住房建设。
　　风险：1）政府基础设施支出可能低于预期；2）可能超预期的通胀或导致政策收紧。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleGaryWong黄家玮CompanyReportBroadHomes02163HK究85225092616EquityResearch公司报告远大住工02163HKgarywonggtjascomhk4April2023TheTableSummaryTroughHasPassedandPerformanceisGettingBetterMaintainAccumulate公业务低潮已过业绩渐入佳境维持收集评级司RatingandTPWemaintaintheratingofAccumulateandlowertheTableRanktargetpricetoHK670representing217x118x81x202320242025RatingAccumulate报InitialEVEBITDA告Annualresultsfor2022wereworsethanexpectedmainlyduetothe评级收集首次覆盖CompanyReportdecreaseinrevenueandgrossmargincausedbytheindustrydownturnaswellasthelargeprovisionsforfinancialassetsInadditionthevalueofnewlysigned6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK670contractsforPCunitsdroppedby567toRMB2141millionHK850SincetheCompanyhascompleteditsnationallayoutitwillnotmakelargeShareprice股价HK4690告capitalexpendituresinthefutureAsthebusinessgraduallyimprovesfreecash证flowwillcontinuetoincreaseanddividendspayoutmayresumeInadditionas报theindustryreshuffleacceleratestheCompanysPCunitmarketsharewillStockperformance券increaseandtherevenuefromthedigitalEPCbusinesswhichhashuge究股价表现potentialwillcontinuetogrowrapidly研TableQuotePic研of究Catalysts1PublicationofGuidelinesfortheImplementationofGovernment200return券ProcurementSupportingGreenBuildingMaterialsandPromotingBuilding100报QualityImprovementPolicyProjectshasstimulateddemandforprefabricated00证告buildingproducts2thegovernmentmaintainsrelativelyactivefiscalpolicyand100EquityResearchReportrelativelyloosemonetarypolicysupportinghousingconstruction200300Risks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2400possibleinflationmayexceedexpectationswhichmaycausepolicytightening500Tab评级及目标价维持收集评级调低目标价至670港元相当于217倍118倍81600leI倍202320242025年EVEBITDA700Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23nfo12022年业绩差于预期主要由于行业不景气导致收入及毛利率减少以及做出大额金融资HSIindexCHANGSHABROADHOMESINDUS-H建产拨备此外PC构件新签合同额下跌567至人民币2141亿元筑由于公司已完成全国布局未来将不会再做出大额资本开支随着业务逐步改善自由现金工流将持续增加公司或将恢复派息此外随着行业洗牌加快公司PC构件市占率将提高ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y程而潜力庞大的数字化EPC业务收入将持续快速增长股价变动1个月3个月1年Abs171415526行催化剂1政府采购支持绿色建材促进建筑品质提升政策项目实施指南出台刺激装绝对变动配式建筑产品需求2政府维持相对积极的财政政策和相对宽松的货币政策支持住房建业ReltoHSIndex163428452相对恒指变动设AvgSharepriceHK456278风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2可能超预期的通胀或导致政策收紧平均股价港元SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalConstructionSectorEngineeringTabYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEProfitleI年结收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMBnfo22021A3059320067849571851304000000082022A223280816572573126672506000000218远2023F29561970410na99639606000000622024F3711450093na43664890600190514大2025F4858279057952267270500601162886住Sharesinissuem总股数m4876Majorshareholder大股东MrZhangJian577工TableBaseDataMarketcapHKm市值HKm22868Freefloat自由流通比率4233monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数0001320FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金112252WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK105803840FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元97Broad02163HomesHKSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of5TablePageHeaderBroadHomes02163HKRatingTPWeforecastChangshaBroadHomes02163HKCBHortheCompanyEPSfor20231r2024aMt2025hgtoibeRRMBe0410lbaTRMB0093RMB0579respectivelyWelowerthetargetpricetoHK670basedonrelativevaluationmethodcorrespondingto202320242025EVEBITDAof217x118x81xMaintainAccumulaterating2022resultswereworsethanexpectationprecastconcretePCunitmanufacturingnewcontractsdecreased567YoYtoHK2141million2022revenuedecreased280YoYtoRMB2232millionShareholdersnetprofitturnedfrom4April2023RMB32millionin2021toalossofRMB808millionin2022ResultswereworsethanexpecationsduetoirevenuefromprefabricatedPCunitsdecreasedbyapproximatelyRMB600millionasaresultofindustryregulationandcontrolmeasuresfortheCovid-19pandemiciirevenuefromPCequipmentdecreasedbyapproximatelyRMB220millionasaresultofsaturatingdemandiiisubstantialincreaseinprovisionforlossallowanceonreceivablesanddecreaseinfairvalueoffinancialassetsatfairvaluethroughprofitorlossasaresultoftheindustryenvironmentRevenuefromPCunitmanufacturingwasRMB2024million-249PCequipmentmanufacturingwasRMB63million-777modularintegratedproductsmanufacturingwasRMB129million574anddigitalEPCwasRMB17millionnewbusinessNewcontractsofthePCunitmanufacturingandmodularintegratedproductmanufacturingwereRMB2141million-567andRMB229million482respectivelyAsatDecember312022backlogofPCunitmanufacturingandmodularintegratedproductmanufacturingamountedtoRMB4503million-302andRMB151million1449respectively2raMthgiRelbaTFigure1SegmentalRevenuein2022Figure2SegmentalGrossProfitin2022DigitalEPCDigitalEPCPCEquipmentPCEquipment0701ManufacturingManufacturing2814ModularIntegratedProductModularIntegratedProductManufacturingManufacturing5813PCUnitManufacturingPCUnit972Manufacturing90702163HK远大住工SourcetheCompanySourcetheCompanyThelossin2022wasmainlyduetothedeclineingrossmarginandsubstantialprovisionsoffinancialassetsfreecashflowisexpectedtocontinuetoincreaseinthefutureImpactedbythedeclineinPCunitsalespricecausedbytheindustrydownturnandtheincreaseindepreciationcostsperunitduetohigheridlecapacitygrossmarginofPCunitbusinessBroadHomesdroppedby94pptto179in2022HoweverwiththerecoveryoftherealestateindustryandsomeofthePCunitmanufacturersexitingthemarketcompetitionhasdecreasedWeexpectthecapacityutilizationrateandsalespriceofPCunittoreboundin2023drivingthegrossmargintoriseAstheimpactofthepandemicsubsidesweexpectthattherewillbenofurthersubstantialprovisionsoffinancialassetsin2023andoperatingprofitswillimprovesharplyInadditionsincetheCompanyhascompleteditsnationallayoutitwillnolongerundertakelarge-scalecapitalexpendituresAsthebusinesscontinuestoimproveweexpectthatfreecashflowwillcontinuetoincreaseanddividendspayoutmayresumeaftertheCompanyreducesthescaleofborrowingsAsthemarketreshuffleacceleratestheCompanysPCunitmarketsharewillincreaseandthedigitalEPCbusinessisexpectedtogrowrapidlyTheCompanyhascompleteditsnationallayoutandbytheendof2022itcontributedto63JointFactoriesthatproducePCunitsthroughtheBroadHomesUnitedProgramAftertwoyearsofindustryreshufflethemainplayersoftherealestateindustryarenownationaldeveloperswithstate-ownedbackgroundsBasedonriskandcostconsiderationstheyprefertocooperatewithsupplierswithalongoperatinghistoryandanationalpresenceInadditionmanyReportsmall-andmedium-sizedPCunitmanufacturershavebeeneliminatedinthepasttwoyearsandtheCompanysmarketsharewillcontinuetoincreaseInadditiontoPCunitproductstheCompanyisvigorouslydevelopingnewproductsAmongthemrevenuefrommodularintegratedproductmanufacturingincreasedby574toRMB129millionandthedigitalEPClaunchedCompanyin2022alsocontributedRMB17millioninrevenueThedigitalEPCbusinessmainlytargetedthemarketsofdormitory-typeapartmentsincampusesindustrialparksandsmartparkingbuildingswhichhavegreatgrowthpotentialWeareparticularlySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of5TablePageHeaderBroadHomes02163HKoptimisticabouttherevenuegrowthofrelatedbusinessesandestimatethatthedigitalEPCbusinessrevenuewillreachRMB13billionin2025accountingfor13oftheCompanysoverallrevenue1raMthgiRelbaTCatalysts1TheMinistryofFinancetheMinistryofHousingandUrban-RuralDevelopmentandtheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyjointlyissuedtheGuidelinesfortheImplementationofGovernmentProcurementSupportingGreenBuildingMaterialsandPromotingBuildingQualityImprovementPolicyProjects政府采购支持绿色建材促进建筑品质提升政策项目实施指南demandforprefabricatedbuildingproductswillincrease2Thegovernmentmaintainsarelativelyactivefiscal4April2023policyandrelativelyloosemonetarypolicyhousingconstructionmarketshouldcontinuetorecoverRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2inflationcouldexceedexpectationsandmaycausepolicytighteningTable1PeersComparison-ValuationPEPBROEDYEVEBITDACompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastpriceMarketcapmn22A23F24F25F22A23F24F25F23F23F23FHKListedPCUnitsModularIntegratedProductsRelatedCompaniesChangshaBroadHomesIndus-H02163HKHKD46902287nana174na060605nana10245DitGroupLtd00726HKHKD0300931nananana04nananananana2raMthgiRelbaTChiKanHoldingsLtd09913HKHKD21602160557nanana55nanananananaZhixinGroupHoldingLtd02187HKHKD4420330618979nanananananananananaChinaStateConstructionInt03311HKHKD92004634658514540080706061475977ChinaStateConstructionDev00830HKHKD20404601107765641221814112374364SimpleAverage49256492401910090919237129WeightedAverage1126464634100706051335074MainlandChinaListedPCUnitsModularIntegratedProductsRelatedCompaniesShenzhenCapolInternation-A002949CHCNY146602874158126103na181715na1412967AnhuiConstructionEng-A600502CHCNY618010608776857460908070611544naZhejiangSoutheastSpace-A002135CHCNY65707658164134113nanananana8317naAnhuiHongluSteelConstru-A002541CHCNY3445023771204152127107292421181651010902163HKBeijingNewBuildingMater-A000786CHCNY272004595514712310593221917151572796AnhuiFuhuangSteelStruct-A002743CHCNY56502459nananananananananananaChinaRailwayPrefabricate-A300374CHCNY159503922na469nana42nananananana远大住工HangxiaoSteelStructure-A600477CHCNY451010685364213199na202019na8411naChangjiangJinggongBuil-A600496CHCNY4030811299827006100908na1131359JiangxiGetoNewMaterials-A300986CHCNY402606598325235174na463630na16303naZhejiangYashaDecoration-A002375CHCNY480064321419880nanananananananaBroadHomesShanghaiConstructionGrou-A600170CHCNY2800249321006458na060505na108nanaSimpleAverage17816010963221715131251983WeightedAverage15812910048181513081231650OverallSimpleAverage1534145105562115131113724102OverallWeightedAverage4031088644161311071262456SourceBloombergReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of5TablePageHeaderBroadHomes02163HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetIncomeStatement1BalanceraMSheetthgiRelbaTYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalRevenue30592232295637114858InvestmentProperties251225239253266CostofSales22031859228427443608PropertyPlantandEquipment22882422249925672624GrossProfit8553736729671250InterestsinanAssociates296380478578681Right-of-UseAssets6275985925865804April2023OtherIncomeandGainsNet4555677289IntangibleAssets307328317302283SalesandDistributionExpenses280287301316332Goodwill88888GeneralandAdministrativeFinancialAssetsatFVThrough336332349366385ExpensesPL19401620167217241776ResearchandDevelopmentOtherNon-currentAssets548896105115127126133139146ExpensesTotalNon-currentAssets57705669590261236331OperatingProfit15831744217475Inventories339264325390513ShareofProfitofAssociates2643302724ContractAssets024589179FinanceCosts138109130143152TradeandOtherReceivables29052791295631553511OtherNon-OperatingIncomeNet40363000RestrictedandPledgedBankProfitBeforeTax3383320546298Deposits308308308308308IncomeTax1246221CashCashEquivalents5412ra359Mthg417iR345elb544aTProfitAfterTax3280919844278OtherCurrentAssets030000TotalCurrentAssets40933754405142885054Non-controllingInterest11111TotalAssets9863942399521041011385ShareholdersProfitLoss3280819745279Short-termBorrowings12902611300331533311BasicEPS00671657041000930579TradeandOtherPayables22952119221322602526DPS00000000000000190116ContractLiabilities118183225270355OtherCurrentLiabilities5749597081TotalCurrentLiabilities37614962549957536273TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementLong-termBorrowings160084697210701177Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FOtherNon-currentLiabilities25924630937245102163HKProfitBeforeTax3383320546298TotalNon-currentLiabilities18591091128114421627DepreciationandAmortisation246284297312327TotalLiabilities56206053678071957900ChangeinWorkingCapital35240059186175远大住工OtherOperatingActivities176572205221215ShareCapital488488488488488CashfromOperatingActivities807423239392667Reserves36632791259426392909TotalShareholdersEquity41513279308131263396CapitalExpenditure631370356356356MinorityInterest9291908988OtherInvestingActivities10694168167168TotalEquity42433370317232163484BroadHomesCashfromInvestingActivities525464524523524TotalEquityandLiabilities9863942399521041011385IssuanceRepurchaseofShares00000BVPS85136725639664897050IssuanceRepaymentofDebts370103519247265Dividends00009TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatiosOtherFinancingActivities186247174187198CashfromFinancingActivities55614534560572021A2022A2023F2024F2025FCashatBegofYear828541359417345GrossMargin280167227261257NetChangesinCash2741855971200OperatingMargin52142155898Forex134111NetMargin11362671257CashatEndofYear541359417345544ROA0384200425ROE08218621486SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalNetGearingRatio554919112212061132InterestCoveragex2215072642ReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of5TablePageHeaderBroadHomes02163HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable4April2023Neutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearch02163HKReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies远大住工DISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongBroadHomesKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793ReportWebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of5