估值情况：利润较前期修复明显，尤其是PDH利润，PE进口窗口小幅打开，整体估值中性偏高。
　　驱动情况：随着利润修复，装置检修复产，存量开工提升。新产能方面，PP广西华谊30万吨粉料+京博石化40万吨装置均于3月中投产，另外20万吨装置4月中投产，后续PP投产压力仍大，PE集中投产220万吨新产能。PP、PE3月检修高位，4月检修环比有所下降，PE进口窗口小幅打开，后续进口有增加预期，整体供应端压力仍大。PE下游需求中性，农膜后期季节性走弱，PP下游需求同期偏差，制品出口已经在走弱当中。
　　行情观点：新产能释放压力，利润修复，存量开工回升，但库存偏低，价格下跌后有投机需求，短期震荡偏空。

研究报告全文：银河期货聚烯烃周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年03月25日银河能化微信公众号主要观点估值情况利润较前期修复明显尤其是PDH利润PE进口窗口小幅打开整体估值中性偏高驱动情况随着利润修复装置检修复产存量开工提升新产能方面PP广西华谊30万吨粉料京博石化40万吨装置均于3月中投产另外20万吨装置4月中投产后续PP投产压力仍大PE集中投产220万吨新产能PPPE3月检修高位4月检修环比有所下降PE进口窗口小幅打开后续进口有增加预期整体供应端压力仍大PE下游需求中性农膜后期季节性走弱PP下游需求同期偏差制品出口已经在走弱当中行情观点新产能释放压力利润修复存量开工回升但库存偏低价格下跌后有投机需求短期震荡偏空GALAXYFUTURES1PE概述项目基本面及变化PE去库整体库存同期低位上周PE去库存总库存降31万吨至851万吨中石油中石化库存环比下降24万吨煤化工库存环比下降01万吨贸易商库存环比增库存加05万吨港口库存环比下降04万吨3月检修高位对冲部分新产能压力2月PE产量214万吨环比下降83同比增长28累计同比增长283月检修损失预估282万吨环比增加115万吨上产量周PE检修损失58万吨环比下降06万吨PE开工916环比上升08个百分点新增产能方面海南炼化30万吨HDPE30万吨FDPE装置2月20日左右投产广东石化40万吨HD40万吨全密度1线40万吨全密度2线装置2月中旬左右投产山东劲海化工40万吨低压装置已于3月初投料开车今年PE集中投产告一段落进口价格走弱美金成交增加2023年1月PE进口量1028万吨2月进口量112万吨1-2月累计进口2148万吨累计同比下降311-2月北美进口到港明显增加但中东进口下滑10整体1-2月份进口量不高上周ICIS美金价格下降15美元吨至1020美元吨进口利润上升203元吨至50元吨上周中东供应商报价依然不多但总体美金报盘有所增加报价较上周走弱进口窗口小幅打开美金成交量环比增加目前外盘检修正在逐步恢复东南亚等地需求跟进不足来自外盘的压力开始显现后期进口有增加预期进出口外盘供应方面据HIS中东地区检修装置正在陆续重启向亚洲报盘增加报价下调一主流中东供应商的下游客户开始减长约量可能导致后续该供应商有更多的现货出售东南亚地区尽管越南Longson因上游裂解开车延迟下游装置开车依然不顺但目前斋月需求不佳叠加近期中东等地报盘增加因此东南亚目前对进口货的承接能力不足南亚孟加拉因外汇储备不足信用证开证困难因此近期的进口采购需求受到影响北美地区前期检修装置多数已恢复出口量稳步提升且外盘其他地区的需求在走弱因此北美向中国的报盘正在增加12023年1月PE消费3135万吨2月消费3222万吨累计消费6357万吨累计同比增长17需求2上周PE下游开工多数持稳包装开工有所下降农膜行业开工持稳50同比低1个百分点包装膜开工环比下降2个百分点至58同比持平单丝行业开工环比上升1个百分点至45同比低5个百分点中空行业持稳50同比高1个百分点管材行业开工持稳50同比高2个百分点3塑料制品出口下降已经在进行2022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长932023年1-2月塑料制品出口金额1427亿美元累计同比下降97利润上周油制PE利润下降130元吨至663元吨煤制PE利润上涨265元吨至502元吨进口利润上升203元吨至50元吨期现上周海外风险减弱油价企稳反弹低价对需求有一定刺激塑料低位企稳塑料主力周度收涨032主力基差走弱26至445-9价差上涨26至80GALAXYFUTURES2PP概述项目基本面及变化PP库存去化整体库存偏低上周PP去库存总库存降42万吨至465万吨其中中石油中石化去库23万吨煤化工去库07万吨贸易商去库02万吨港口库库存存环比持平周末两油累库偏低今日两油库存水平在76万吨累库35万吨去年同期库存大致87万吨PDH利润回升下PDH检修复产存量开工提升新产能投放压力仍大2月PP产量233万吨环比下降113同比下降16累计同比增长272月PP检修损失量35万吨环比增加46万吨3月预估PP检修损失35万吨环比持平上周PP检修环比减少周度检修损失69万吨负荷918环比上升09个百分产量点海南炼化和广东石化共100万吨装置2月中下旬投产中化弘润45万吨新装置2月下旬投产京博石化40万吨装置3月中投产另外20万吨装置计划4月中投产广西华谊30万吨PP粉装置3月中投产东华能源茂名40万吨装置计划5月投产巨正源二期60万吨装置已经具备开车条件随着PDH利润回升投产概率较大进口依旧倒挂美金成交差1月PP进口391万吨2月进口393万吨1-2月累计进口783万吨累计同比增长133上周ICIS美金价格下降5美元吨至940美元吨进口利润上升116元吨至-327元吨进口依旧处于倒挂状态上周美金成交依旧寥寥进出口出口阻力增加1月PP出口量48万吨2月PP出口量101万吨1-2月累计出口149万吨累计同比增长193煤制PP均聚出口报价在995美元吨油制PP均聚出口报价在1030美元吨由于东南亚需求走弱南亚孟加拉由于目前缺乏外汇储备信用证开证问题导致进口需求减少因此上周PP出口愈加困难仅有少量向南美出口成交南美市场虽然目前依然偏紧但需求已有走弱预计后期向南美的出口阻力也将继续增加12023年1月PP消费307万吨2月291万吨1-2月消费累计598万吨累计同比增长312上周下游开工环比持稳同期偏低上周塑编行业开工持稳54同比降4个百分点BOPP行业开工持稳57同比降5个百分点注塑行业开工持稳54同比降3个百分点塑编企业新订单表现不足尤其是小包装订单欠佳出口表现亦偏差部分企业半成品库存偏高多数企业原料库存适中刚需采购为主需求注塑行业日用品企业订单尚可部分大厂开工6-7成周转箱托盘企业订单亦有所改善但出口型企业订单欠佳个别企业存在降负荷情况整体上多数企业成品库存适中略高周内BOPP市场需求并无起色部分终端年前备货尚未完全消耗尽管企业下调价格但终端补货意愿仍不强烈择低价少量刚需采购为主3塑料制品出口下降已经在进行2022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长932023年1-2月塑料制品出口金额1427亿美元累计同比下降97利润上周油制PP利润下降230元吨至13元吨PDH利润下降137元吨至-95元吨煤制利润上升230元吨至317元吨进口利润上升116元吨至-327元吨期现上周海外风险减弱油价企稳反弹低价对需求有一定刺激PP低位企稳主力合约周度收跌00305基差-585-9价差上涨35至31GALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章PE主要数据5第二章PP主要数据22GALAXYFUTURES4PE产业链价格分类名称2023032420230317上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅分类名称2023032420230317上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅布伦特现货价7347231246116-51-4106油制PE利润663793320-1302-1641342910710原油布伦特主7467251168229-42-3614CTO利润502237816265011205-3146-3855WTI主6926631126343-43-3854LL进口利润含税50-154-3922034-132194414-11264CFR日本647615096563251-319-3305LL进口利润免税27072-1361977272754060-29910石脑油FOB鹿特丹659606928530874-2683-2892利润LDPE进口利润-180-441-9242609-59127434-8047煤坑口煤价840890945-50-562-1050HD薄膜进口利润-404-486-1103825-16966987-6336江苏出罐ICIS258526053035-200-077-4500-1483HD中空进口利润-322-352-761300-8534392-5769甲醇CFR中国ICIS28052785373520072-93-2490HD注塑进口利润-272-352-758800-22734862-6412甲醇主力250525073061-20-008-556-1816HD拉丝进口利润-304-351-950475-13516457-6799CFR东北亚9519611351-100-104-400-2961LLDCFR中国9659801205-150-153-2400-1992CFR东南亚9719811301-100-102-330-2537LD薄膜CFR中国1020104751525-275-263-5050-3311乙烯FD美国海湾美分磅02229-219-10000-29-10000HD中空CFR中国927594251135-150-159-2075-1828FD西北欧欧元吨9759331462428459-487-3329PECFR中国HD薄膜CFR中国9909951220-50-050-2300-1885L01791379348931-210-026-1018-1140HD注塑低熔指CFR中国9209301110-100-108-1900-1712L05805680309006260032-950-1055HD注塑高熔指CFR中国94759751110-275-282-1625-1464L0979767976899000-1014-1128HD注塑不分熔指CFR中国937595251110-150-157-1725-1554PE华北LLD81008100885000-750-847LLDCFR东南亚10311031146100-4300-2943LD华北8600870011250-1000-115-26500-2356LLDFOB中东978978123900-2610-2107PE价格HD膜80008000880000-8000-909LLDFD西北欧12911291178100-4900-2751HD中空780078508700-500-064-9000-1034LLDFAS休斯顿10811081157700-4960-3145HD拉丝790080008550-1000-125-6500-760LDCFR东南亚11211121172100-6000-3486HD管材820083259500-1250-150-13000-1368LDFOB中东10481048153900-4910-3190HD注塑低熔79007900840000-5000-595LDFD西北欧12911291200100-7100-3548L01基差187166-8121012652680-33086LDFAS休斯顿11471147162100-4740-2924L05基差4470-156-260-37142000-12821HD膜CFR东南亚10511051147100-4200-2855L09基差124124-140002640-18857PE外盘价格HD膜FOB中东998998122900-2310-1880基差月差L1-5价差-143-96-75-47048958333-6809066667HD膜FD西北欧17821782215100-3690-1715L5-9价差805416260481564040000HD膜FAS休斯顿11251125132400-1990-1503L9-1价差634259210500040678HD中空CFR东南亚10311031135100-3200-2369LD-LLD5006002400-1000-1667-19000-7917HD中空CFR东南亚10311031135100-3200-2369HD膜-LLD膜-100-100-5000-50010000HD中空FD西北欧17391739209600-3570-1703HD中空-LLD膜-300-250-150-5002000-150010000HD中空FAS休斯敦10811081140100-32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