27日双硅盘面延续上涨。从成本线来看，天津港锰矿价格持续下跌，冶金焦、硅石、兰炭、电等价格持稳，宁夏地区硅锰现货回调62元/吨，硅铁回调50元/吨，硅锰成本线重心下移。双硅库存上周均突破新高，硅铁库存增幅31%，硅锰库存增幅13%，贸易商期现商拿货意愿一般，基本面趋弱。未来预计库存难以得到大规模去化，硅铁多地停产以及数量较低的仓单提供了一定的利多因素，且兰炭限产的消息推动硅铁成本线预期。总的来看，短期硅锰偏空，硅铁有边际拉动，可以轻仓试多，但长期双硅持续走弱的趋势不会改变或者考虑多硅铁空硅锰的价差套利。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报2023328品种日内观点27日双硅盘面延续上涨从成本线来看天津港锰矿价格持续下跌冶金焦硅石兰炭电等价格持硅铁稳宁夏地区硅锰现货回调62元吨硅铁回调50元吨硅锰成本线重心下移双硅库存上周均突破新高硅铁库存增幅31硅锰库存增幅13贸易商期现商拿货意愿一般基本面趋弱未来预计库存难以得到大规模去化硅铁多地停产以及数量较低的仓单提供了一定的利多因素且兰炭限产的消息推动硅锰硅铁成本线预期总的来看短期硅锰偏空硅铁有边际拉动可以轻仓试多但长期双硅持续走弱的趋势不会改变或者考虑多硅铁空硅锰的价差套利产业链数据数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价755050硅铁2305结算价807886内蒙硅铁现价75000硅铁2309结算价793040期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价707462锰硅2305结算价735040内蒙锰硅现价73000锰硅2309结算价726014硅铁2305基差-528-36硅铁9-1价差40-6硅铁2309基差-38010硅铁5-9价差14846基差及价差锰硅2305基差-50-40锰硅9-1价差40-24锰硅2309基差40-14锰硅5-9价差9026宁夏硅铁利润508550宁夏锰硅利润-4130925695555利润内蒙硅铁利润79450内蒙锰硅利润-199092575555硅铁2305178万-12万锰硅2305163万-17万持仓情况硅铁230932万04万锰硅230929万08万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202051202061202091202151202161202191202251202261202291202011202021202031202041202071202081202111202121202131202141202171202181202211202221202231202241202271202281202311202321202331202021202041202071202121202141202171202221202241202271202321202011202031202051202061202081202091202111202131202151202161202181202191202211202231202251202261202281202291202311202331202012120211212022121202010120201112021101202111120221012022111202011120211112022101202211120201012020121202110120211212022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁09合约基差SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差8000700060006000500040004000300020002000100000-1000-2000-2000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰09合约基差SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差4000400035003000300025002000200015001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图9硅铁9-1价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925002000150010005000-500-1000-1500-2000916101611161216116216316416图11硅锰9-1价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23095001500400300100020010050000-100-200-500-300-400-1000117217317417517617717817917918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途