【行情回顾】
　　本周热卷05合约整体偏弱运行，连续五日持续下跌，最终HC2305收于4253元/吨，一周跌幅2.43%。

研究报告全文：图表设置下载图片另存为PDF热卷周报2023-03-27分享作者题目外围避险情绪浓厚盘面大幅回调黑色研究中心摘要电话15993379356行情回顾邮箱本周热卷05合约整体偏弱运行连续五日持续下跌最终wangbbhrrdqhcom从业资格号F03095193HC2305收于4253元吨一周跌幅243现货概述本周上海475热卷价格4300元吨-90对应05合约基差为47元吨16热卷成本明显回落利润出现下降其中热卷成本现为4172元吨-103热卷利润现为108元吨-23钢厂无明显检修计划产量小幅波动总产量现为30566万吨36需求持续回升周表观消费下降746万吨社会库存下降836万吨钢厂库存增加186万吨总库存现为33398万吨-646市场分析本周热卷价格偏弱运行从基本面数据来看本周热卷产量小幅增加目前钢厂利润不断修复但钢厂开工并不低且铁水产量已升至同期高位预计后续产量维持当前水平波动本周表需继续回落库存延续去化表需存在见顶预期2月制造业PMI超预期回升BDI指数也大幅反弹经济复苏预期不断加强但海外银行事件频发宏观扰动加剧总体来说本周热卷基本面无明显变化国内经济复苏预期仍存但近期海外加息副作用逐渐体现外围避险情绪浓厚短期行情震荡调整运行策略建议建议暂时观望风险提示需求恢复不及预期热卷周报价格与价差价格本周热卷2305合约收于4253元吨跌幅243全国475mm热轧板卷均价为4381元吨较上周下调72元吨基差价差本周热卷基差47元吨较上周走强16元吨05-10合约价差89元吨较上周扩大1元吨远期结构back结构远期维持贴水类别指标名称2023-03-242023-03-17涨跌涨跌幅热轧板卷上海43004390-90-205现货价格热轧板卷天津42804360-80-183热轧板卷广州43004380-80-183热卷01合约价格40914192-101-241期货价格热卷05合约价格42534359-106-243热卷10合约价格41644271-107-251热卷01合约基差20919811556基差热卷05合约基差4731165161热卷10合约基差13611917142901-05跨期价差----跨期价差05-10跨期价差89881114数据来源钢联wind热卷周报价格热卷01合约价格价格上海热轧板卷元吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202366006900630066006000630057006000540057005100540048005100450040914800430042004500390042003600390033003600300033002700300002-0103-0504-0705-1306-1407-1608-1709-1810-2711-2812-301-0202-0603-1304-1805-2707-0108-0509-0910-2111-2512-3价格热卷05合约价格元吨价格天津热轧板卷价格元吨2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20232019202020212022202360006900570066006300540060005100570048005400510045004253480042804200450039004200360039003600330033003000300006-0107-0308-0409-0510-1411-1512-1701-1902-2003-2404-201-0202-0603-1304-1805-2707-0108-0509-0910-2111-2512-3价格热卷10合约价格元吨价格广州热轧板卷价格元吨2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-2023201920202021202220236900660066006300630060006000570057005400540051005100480045004164480043004200450039004200360039003300360030003300300011-0112-0301-0502-0603-1004-1205-1806-1907-2108-2209-2301-0202-0603-1304-1805-2707-0108-0509-0910-2111-2512-3基差热卷01合约基差跨期价差热卷01-05合约价差2018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220238003907003606003303005002704002402103002091802001501201009006030-10002-0103-0504-0705-1006-1107-1308-1409-1510-2411-2512-206-0106-2107-1107-3108-2009-0909-2910-2611-1512-0512-25数据来源钢联wind热卷周报基差热卷05合约基差跨期价差热卷05-10合约价差2017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20232022-2023100045090040080070035060030050025040030020020015047891001000-10050-200006-0107-0308-0409-0510-1411-1512-1701-1902-2003-2404-211-0111-1812-0512-2201-0901-2602-1203-0103-1804-0404-22基差热卷10合约基差跨期价差热卷10-01合约价差2017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222018201920202021202220232022-20231000450900400800700350600300500250400300200136200150100100730-10050-200011-0112-0401-0702-0903-1404-1705-2106-2307-2608-2809-302-0102-2403-1904-1205-0605-2906-2107-1408-0608-2909-21远期结构曲线热卷3个月前热轧远期结构2个月前热轧远期结构1个月前热轧远期结构最新热轧远期结构4300425042004150410040504000395039003850380037502022-12-012023-03-012023-05-012023-06-242023-08-012023-09-242023-11-012023-12-242024-02-24远期结构评估热卷历史评估热轧远期结构10908070605040302010-012020-08-202020-11-132021-02-012021-04-272021-07-192021-10-132021-12-292022-03-242022-06-172022-09-022022-11-282023-02-21数据来源钢联wind热卷周报成本与利润热卷成本本周热轧成本4172元吨较上周减少103元吨热卷利润长流程热轧利润108元吨较上周减少23元吨热卷2305合约盘面利润362元吨较上周增加1元吨成本长流程热卷成本元吨钢坯成本元吨20182019202020212022202320182019202020212022202357005400540051005100480048004500450041716634200420039003621663390036003600330033003000300027002700240001-0202-0603-1304-1805-2406-2808-0209-0610-1811-2212-201-0202-0603-1304-1805-2406-2808-0209-0610-1811-2212-2利润长流程热卷利润元吨盘面利润热卷05合约利润元吨2018201920202021202220232017-20182018-20192019-20202020-20212021-20222022-20231400220012002000180010001600800140060012004001000108337200800600036195400-200200-400001-0202-0603-1304-1805-2406-2808-0209-0610-1811-2212-206-0107-0308-0409-0510-1411-1512-1701-1902-2003-2404-2数据来源钢联wind热卷周报供给热卷产量本周热卷产量30566万吨较上周增加36万吨热卷产能热轧产能利用率7809较上周增加092铁水粗钢产量日均铁水产量23982万吨增加224万吨产量热轧周产量万吨产能热轧产能利用率周2018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220233458834086335330843258232031580780930566310783053007629574290285722807001-0102-0103-0304-0305-1006-1507-2208-2710-0211-0812-1401-0102-0103-0304-0305-1006-1507-2208-2710-0211-0812-14产能热轧开工率247钢厂产能利用率2019202020212022202320192020202120222023949692949290892890888886868484828279698080787876767401-0101-3103-0104-0105-0706-1207-1908-2610-0111-0612-1301-0102-0103-0504-0505-1306-1807-2408-3010-0711-1212-18日均铁水产量247钢厂万吨重点企业日均粗钢产量万吨2020202120222023201820192020202120222023255250250240245239822402302253123522023022521022020021521019020518020019517001-0101-2903-0404-0205-0806-1707-2308-2810-0711-1212-1801-1002-2003-3105-1006-2007-3008-3110-1011-2012-3数据来源钢联wind热卷周报需求热卷需求本周热卷总消费31212万吨较上周下降746万吨汽车及家电2月乘用车销量1653万辆环比增加59万辆汽车产量为2032万辆环比增加438万辆宏观2月制造业PMI指数526环比增加25再次站在枯荣线以上消费热轧总消费估算万吨宏观制造业PMI指数20192020202120222023201920202021202220233605352635052534052330515320312125131050530050290495492804852704826047525001-0101-3103-0304-0205-0806-1407-2208-2710-0211-0812-1601-3103-3105-3107-3109-3011-30需求汽车产量辆需求乘用车销量辆20202021202220232020202120222023300000026000002700000240000024000002200000203200020000002100000180000016530001800000160000015000001400000120000012000009000001000000800000600000600000300000400000020000001-3103-3105-3107-3109-3011-3001-3103-3105-3107-3109-3011-30空调空调产量当月值万台洗衣机产量当月值万台20192020202120222018201920202021202226001000250095024009002300836422008502100800200075019001770570018006501700600160015005501400500130045003-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-3103-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31数据来源钢联wind热卷周报库存热卷库存本周热轧卷板总库存33398万吨较上周下降646万吨其中钢厂库存8445万吨较上周增加186万吨33市社会库存24953万吨较上周减少836万吨华东华北华南三地区库存分别为50382773633万吨其中华东华北华南库存分别下降14302147万吨库存热轧总库存厂库加33市社库万吨库存热轧钢厂库存万吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202360020057019054018051017048016045015014042013039033398120360110330100844530090270802407001-0101-3103-0304-0205-0806-1407-2208-2710-0211-0812-1601-0101-3103-0104-0105-0706-1207-1908-2610-0111-0612-13库存热轧33市社会库存万吨库存华东热轧库存万吨20192020202120222023201920202021202220234208039075360703306530060270249535550382405021045180401503501-0101-3103-0304-0205-0806-1407-2208-2710-0211-0812-1601-0101-3103-0304-0205-0806-1407-2208-2710-0211-0812-16库存华北热轧库存万吨库存华南热轧库存万吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023801107510070659060805570633504560405035277340302530202001-0101-3103-0304-0205-0806-1407-2208-2710-0211-0812-1601-0101-3103-0304-0205-0806-1407-2208-2710-0211-0812-16数据来源钢联热卷周报免责声明本分析报告由华融融达期货股份有限公司提供仅作为所服务的特定企业与机构一般用途而准备未经许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版复制发布及分发本报告的全部或部分内容给其它任何人士如引用发布须注明出处华融融达期货股份有限公司且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用删节和修改本报告引用的信息和数据均来自于公开资料及其它合法渠道力求报告内容引用资料和数据的客观公正尽可能保证可靠准确和完整但并不保证报告所述信息的准确性和完整性本报告所提供的信息仅供参考不作为投资决策的依据客户应自主做出期货交易决策独立承担期货交易后果本报告由华融融达数据分析家httpsdthrrdqhcom动态研报生成器生成