维持“买入”的投资评级，目标价为62.30港元，相当于0.67倍2023年P/EV。股东经营利润同比增长0.3%至人民币1,483.65亿元，每股股息同比增长1.7%至人民币2.42元，略高于我们的预期。股东净利润同比下降17.6%至人民币837.74亿元，主要是受投资表现不佳拖累。
　　寿险新业务价值触底。新业务价值同比下降24.0%，基本符合我们预期。用于计算新业务价值的首年保费同比下降12.4%，主要是由于保险产品需求疲软所致。新业务价值率下降3.7个百分点至24.1%，主要由于产品结构的变化所致，其中长期保障产品的首年保费同比下降50%。平安推进的改革初见成效。代理人的产能有所提高，人均新业务价值同比增长22.1%。据管理团队称，新业务价值2023年2月录得正增长，并在3月上半月保持增长势头。我们预计2023年新业务价值增长将恢复正值，这得益于经济从疫情中复苏以及渠道质量的改善。
　　财险承保利润受保证险拖累。保费同比增长10.4%，主要受非车险强劲增长（同比增19.1%）所推动。承保利润在2022年转差，综合成本率上升2.3个百分点至100.3%，主要受保证险业务转差的拖累。保证险业务综合成本率同比上升40.2个百分点至131.4%，因中小企业的还款能力在经济环境不佳的情况下有所下降。我们预计2023年综合成本率将面临压力，尤其是上半年，因为中小企业仍需要一定的时间恢复。

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleFrancoLi李炜CompanyReportPingAn02318HK究85225097204EquityResearch公司报告中国平安02318HKfrancoligtjascomhk23March2023NBVTableSBottomummaryedPCAndInvestmentUnderPressureBuy新业务价值筑底财险和投资承压买入MaintaintheinvestmentratingofBuywithtargetpriceofHK6230TableRank公equivalentto067x2023FPEVShareholdersOPATwasup03yoytoRatingBuyMaintainedRMB148365mnandDPSwasup17yoytoRMB242slightlybeyondour司expectationShareholdersNPATwasdown176yoytoRMB83774mn报评级买入维持mainlydraggeddownbypoorinvestmentperformance告LifeinsuranceNBVbottomedNBVwasbroadlyinlinewithourexpectationCompanyReport6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK6230down240yoyFYPusedtocalculateNBVwasdown124yoymainlyRevisedfrom原目标价HK5895duetopoordemandforinsuranceproductsNBVmarginwasdown37pptsto241duetochangeinproductmixwhereFYPoflong-termprotectionShareprice股价HK51500productswasdown50yoyThereformthatPingAnadvancedhasstartedtobearfruitTheproductivityofagentshasimprovedwithNBVperagentup告221yoyAccordingtothemanagementteamNBVrecordedpositiveStockperformance证growthinFeb2023andmaintaineditsmomentuminthefirsthalfofMarch股价表现报WeexpectNBVgrowthtorecovertopositivein2023thankstorecoveryoftheTableQuotePic券300ofreturn究economyfromtheCovidpandemicandtheimprovementofchannelquality研200研PCsunderwritingprofitwasdraggeddownbyguaranteeinsurance100究GWPwasup104yoymainlydrivenbystronggrowthofnon-auto00券报insuranceup191yoyUnderwritingprofitdeterioratedin2022withCORup100证23pptsto1003mainlydraggedbythedeteriorationofguarantee告insurancebusinesswithCORup402pptsyoyto1314duetodecreasein200EquityResearchReportSMErepaymentabilityamidpooreconomicenvironmentWeexpectCORto300beunderpressurein2023especiallyin1H23asitmaytaketimeforSMEsto400recover500TabMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23维持买入的投资评级目标价为港元相当于倍年股东经62300672023PEVHSIindexPINGAN-HleI营利润同比增长03至人民币148365亿元每股股息同比增长17至人民币242元略高于我们的预期股东净利润同比下降176至人民币83774亿元主要是受投资表nfo1现不佳拖累ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y寿险新业务价值触底新业务价值同比下降240基本符合我们预期用于计算新业务保股价变动1个月3个月1年价值的首年保费同比下降124主要是由于保险产品需求疲软所致新业务价值率下降Abs险76248937个百分点至241主要由于产品结构的变化所致其中长期保障产品的首年保费同绝对变动ReltoHSIndex行441821比下降50平安推进的改革初见成效代理人的产能有所提高人均新业务价值同比增相对恒指变动业AvgSharepriceHK长221据管理团队称新业务价值2023年2月录得正增长并在3月上半月保持增531564478平均股价港元长势头我们预计2023年新业务价值增长将恢复正值这得益于经济从疫情中复苏以及InsuranceSectorSourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational渠道质量的改善财险承保利润受保证险拖累保费同比增长104主要受非车险强劲增长同比增191所推动承保利润在2022年转差综合成本率上升23个百分点至1003主要受保证险业务转差的拖累保证险业务综合成本率同比上升402个百分点至1314因中小企业的还款能力在经济环境不佳的情况下有所下降我们预计2023年综合成本率将面临压力尤其是上半年因为中小企业仍需要一定的时间恢复TabYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEleI年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率nfo21231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB2021A128767510161857712877344442092380571292022A1221351837744800168954697310242053100中2023F13867911254367187497635264309242053138国2024F149458214688184151715458945082631581442025F16161701654889481127486593007282762145平安TableBaseDataSharesinissuem总股数m182800Majorshareholder大股东CharoenPokphandGroup160MarketcapHKm市值HKm9414200Freefloat自由流通比率8403monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数00033927909Ping02318AnHKFY23PBxFY23市净率x52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK6510031300FY23PEVxFY23股价每股内含价值x06SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6TablePageHeaderPingAn02318HKPingAns02318HKtheCompany2022resultswerebroadlyinlinewithourexpectationShareholdersoperatingprofitaftertaxOPATwasup03yoytoRMB148365mnin2022anddividendper1shareraDPSMthwasgiupR17eyoylbtoaTRMB242slightlybeyondourexpectationShareholdersnetprofitaftertaxNPATwasdown176yoytoRMB83774mnin2022mainlydraggeddownbypoorinvestmentperformanceamidavolatilecapitalmarketTotalinvestmentincomeofinsurancefundsinvestmentdropped293yoyin2022withatotalinvestmentyieldof25down15pptsyoyEmbeddedvalueEVedgedup20yoytoRMB1424trnin2022draggedbypoornewbusinessvalueNBVandpoorinvestmentreturn23March2023Table-1ResultsSummaryRMBResultsmnSummary20222021YoYGrosswrittenpremiums76963376084312Totalinvestmentincome127057203513-376ShareholdersOPAT14836514796103ShareholdersNPAT83774101618-176GroupEV1423763139550820Newbusinessvalue2882037898-240NBVMargin241278-37pptsCombinedRatio10032980raMthgiR23elpptsbaTDPSHKD24223817SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalLifeinsuranceNBVbottomedin2022NBVwasbroadlyinlinewithourexpectationdown240yoytoRMB28820mnin2022draggedbyboththedecreaseinFirstyearpremiumsFYPandNBVmarginFYPusedtocalculateNBVwasdown124yoytoRMB119336mnin2022mainlyduetopoordemandforinsuranceproductsNBVmarginwasdown37pptsto241in2022duetochangeinproductmixwhereFYPoflong-termprotectionproductswasdown50yoyThe4channels3productsreformstrategythatPingAnadvancedhasstartedtobearfruitIntermsofagencychannelalthoughthenumberofagentswasdown259yoyto445000asatend-2022productivityimprovedwithNBVperagentup221yoytoRMB47639in2022thankstoPingAnsconsistenteffortsinoptimizingitsagencymodelbyadvancingquality-orientedtransformationandrefiningtieredmanagementTheNBVcontributionofotherchannelswasup24pptsyoytoaround20in2022inwhichNBVinbancassurancechannelwasup159yoyTheCompanyalsorolledoutthecommunitygridmodelto02318HKfocusontheretentionofexistingpolicieswith13-monthpersistencyratioup40pptsyoyto903and25-monthpersistencyratioup09pptsyoyto790in2022AccordingtothemanagementteamNBVwasresilientandrecordedpositivegrowthinFeb2023andmaintaineditsmomentuminthefirsthalfofMarchWeexpectNBVgrowthtorecovertopositivein2023thanks中国平安totherecoveryoftheeconomyfromtheCovidpandemicandtheimprovementinchannelqualityPingAnFigure-1AgentproductivityimprovedFigure-2NBVturnedaroundin4Q22154RMBNBVperagentperyearyoyRHS200117600003001002210050000200164-100100-20040000-169-2011100-30030000-41-400-335-337-100-500-42320000-200-600-60510000-284-300-70048789567914068839031476391Q212Q213Q204Q211Q222Q223Q204Q220-400NBVyoygrowth20182019202020212022SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportPCsunderwritingprofitwasdraggeddownbyguaranteeinsurancein2022TheCompanysgrosswrittenpremiumsGWPwasup104yoytoRMB298074mnin2022mainlydrivenbystronggrowthofnon-autoinsuranceup191yoyUnderwritingprofitdeterioratedin2022tonegativeRMB888mnwithcombinedratioCORup23pptsto1003mainlyCompanydraggedbythedeteriorationofguaranteeinsurancebusinesswithCORup402pptsyoyto1314SuchsurgeinCORofSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of6TablePageHeaderPingAn02318HKguaranteeinsurancewasduetotheriseinclaimexpensesofguaranteeinsurancebusinessassmallandmicro-enterpriseSMErepaymentabilitydecreasedamidpooreconomicenvironmentAutoCORwasdown13r1pptsaMyoythtog95i8Rin202el2duebaTtoreducedneedfortravelduringthepandemicWeexpectCORtobeunderpressurein2023especiallyin1H23asitmaytaketimeforSMEstorecoverandthuswillputpressureonthelossratioofguaranteeinsuranceBesidestailwindsforautoinsurancearegraduallyfadingasthepandemicisnearlyoverandpeoplewilltravelmorewhichwillleadtoanincreaseinlossratioofautoinsuranceFigure-3CORwasup23pptsFigure-4Guaranteeinsurancebusinessdeteriorated23March2023ExpenseRatioLossRatio95820221200Autoinsurance989202110039609649929801000Liability1054insurance1051800Guarantee1314insurance912549573605671698600Accidental945injuryinsurance938400CorporatePC952insurance9292004113913863093051012Others2r1018aMthgiRelbaT00201820192020202120226080100120140SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalInvestmentwasunderpressureduetovolatilecapitalmarketsTotalinvestmentassetsoftheCompanysinsurancefundsinvestmentportfoliowasup115toRMB47trnofwhichtheproportionofrealestatedown08pptsto47Netinvestmentyieldedgedup01pptyoyto47whiletotalinvestmentyieldandcomprehensiveinvestmentyieldweredown15pptsyoyto25anddown11pptsyoyto27in2022respectivelymainlyduetovolatilecapitalmarketsWeexpectinvestmentincometoreboundin2023fromalowbaseReviseuptargetpricetoHK6230andmaintaintheinvestmentratingofBuyGiventhatPingAnsreformhasstartedtobearfruitweexpectlifeinsurancebusinesstorecoverandrecordpositiveNBVgrowthin2023Besidesinvestmentincomeislikelytoreboundin2023fromalowbaseThuswemaintaintheinvestmentratingofBuyandderiveatargetpriceof02318HKHK6230basedonsum-of-the-partsmethodequivalentto067x2023FPEVFigure-5PingAnsPEVratiowasatahistoricallow中国平安xPGrpEV5-yearAvg1SD-1SD20PingAn1816141210080604Jun-21Jun-22Jun-18Jun-19Jun-20Mar-18Mar-19Mar-22Mar-23Mar-20Mar-21Dec-18Sep-19Dec-19Sep-20Sep-21Sep-18Dec-20Dec-21Sep-22Dec-22SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalTable-2PeerscomparisonCompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastpricePEfiscalyearPBfiscalyearROEDYMktCapHK22A23F24F25F22A23F24F25F23F23FHKDmnReportPeopleSInsuranceCoGrou-H01339HKHKD2610413735300404040311280240852ChinaTaipingInsuranceHold00966HKHKD88506642362604030302835531520NewChinaLifeInsuranceC-H01336HKHKD1872064393425050404na1097591327ChinaReinsuranceGroupCo-H01508HKHKD05706134311902020202669423789CompanyPingAnInsuranceGroupCo-H02318HKHKD51500926254491009080714258964238PiccPropertyCasualty-H02328HKHKD7550524944410706060513481170380ChinaPacificInsuranceGr-H02601HKHKD2115074625555080707na12162267296SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of6TablePageHeaderPingAn02318HKChinaLifeInsuranceCo-H02628HKHKD13120866053420706060510257909728ZhonganOnlinePCInsuran-H06060HKHKD25000na309217171211917176401367451raMthgiRelbaTManulifeFinancialCorp00945HKHKD140300637367640909090712259258292AiaGroupLtd01299HKHKD8065043641711501343225232116121933004PrudentialPlc02378HKHKD101277354115100892117151416216274693SimpleAverage4838873621109090811555WeightedAverage10569078691412111013250SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational23March20232raMthgiRelbaT02318HK中国平安PingAnReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of6TablePageHeaderPingAn02318HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FNetearnedpremiums739933742418757899806342861824Cashcashequivalents403125442891478879518702563198interestincomefrombanking213439228784243717265994290307Loansandadvancestocustomers29809753238054358266839498914354755Interestrevenuefromnon-bankingFinancialassetsatfairvaluethrough125474124276131941143763156773operationsprofitorloss14266771631416177698719376142115769Investmentincome780392781116653131014147135Financialassetsatamortized23March2023Feescommissionincome5152445982525376051769912costAmortizedcostinvestments27689953004502327259335684133896512Otherincome7926677110840448695290218DebtfinancialassetsatfairvalueTotalRevenue12876751221351138679114945821616170throughothercomprehensiveincome428530467031508704554687605688Insurancecommissionexpenses80711703809207997884104562EquityfinancialassetsatfairvalueInterestexpensesonbankingoperations9207197688109533119574130523throughothercomprehensiveincome268215255103277866302983330841Claimsandbenefitspaid618662631138657762693673741319InvestmentsinassociatesandjointlyGeneralandadminexpenses177061169840180282195438212052controlledentities284061280793305848333495364158Otherexpenses179590146490153938164748177545Otherassets15814481817378194513620856682240500Totalexpenses11480951115536119359312713171366001Totalassets1014202611137168121486801325145314471421Profitbeforetax139580105815193198223265250169DuetobanksandotherfinancialIncometax177781617363384147546133institutions79764691897797494310343171097307Profitaftertax121802107432156860181790204037Customerdepositsandpayablesto2raMthgiRelbaTNon-controllinginterest2018423658314253490938548brokeragecustomers30020493431999378377941716164599207Shareholdersprofitloss10161883774125436146881165488Bondspayable109752393109896871410078501048568BasicEPS57714800718784159481Insurancecontractliabilities32613543567749387859541916244517603DilutedEPS57184730708382949344Otherliabilities9057311112047122456913688011554400Totalliabilities90643039961870108306001177420812817084Totalshareholdersequity81240585867596232210775161205201TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementMinorityinterest265318316623355758399729449136Yearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalequity10777231175298131808014772451654337OperatingactivitiesProfitbeforetax139580105815193198223265250169TableFinancialRatioChangesinloansandadvancestoFinancialRatioscustomers454989332746344614367223404864RMBmexcept2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FChangesincustomerdepositsandInsuranceoperationpayablestobrokeragecustomers294760380410351780387837427591Revenuegrowth-26-521357881Changesininsurancecontractliabilities260088265701310846313029325979Netprofitgrowth-290-17649717112702318HKOthers14932366725476042525835572298OPATgrowth6103-148366CashfromOperatingActivities90116485905351683107326577Embeddedvaluegrowth63-02483532InvestingactivitiesValueofnewbusinessgrowth-236-24031107141中国平安Interestreceived168173148496131941143763156773Numberofagentsgrowth-414-259-20103103Others140240372545100000100000100000ProfitabilityPingAnCashfromInvestingActivities27933224049319414376356773ROE129100138144145FinancingactivitiesROA1008111212NetBorrowings54906128500376163913640717FYPmargin278241236237241Interestpaid4588728209245022606427895PC-combinedratio9801003996980980Dividendspaid4694249582442364808651676PersharedataRMBOthers1132324368000EPS5848728495CashfromFinancingActivities136412230659311213501438854BPS444470526589659NetChangesinCash1836331197359883982344497DPS2424242628Netforeignexchangedifferences32608569000GroupEVpershare763779816858904CashatBegofYear424748403125442891478879518702ValuationmetricsxCashatEndofYear403125442891478879518702563198PE7395635448PBV0910090807PEV0506060505SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalDividendyield5753535862ReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of6TablePageHeaderPingAn02318HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to523March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearch02318HKReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanies中国平安DISCLAIMERPingAnThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongReportTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of6