15日双硅有不同程度下跌。从成本线来看，天津港加蓬矿下调0.2元/吨度，其余冶金焦、硅石、兰炭、现货价格持稳，内蒙电价下调0.01元/度，对硅铁影响更大，双硅成本线重心下移，利润区间扩大，需求方面来看，房地产市场回暖带动钢材需求大幅回升，粗钢日熔量环比上涨17万吨，非钢需求来看，镁锭有所回升，整体铁合金下游需求缓慢修复，但依旧跟不上供给产出，整体库存还是缓慢累积。目前市场情绪较为悲观，3月钢招价格不及预期，短期来看虽有边际拉动，但中长期宽松的格局难以反制，双硅预期跟随黑色情绪震荡。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报2023316品种日内观点15日双硅有不同程度下跌从成本线来看天津港加蓬矿下调02元吨度其余冶金焦硅石兰炭硅铁现货价格持稳内蒙电价下调001元度对硅铁影响更大双硅成本线重心下移利润区间扩大需求方面来看房地产市场回暖带动钢材需求大幅回升粗钢日熔量环比上涨17万吨非钢需求来看镁锭有所回升整体铁合金下游需求缓慢修复但依旧跟不上供给产出整体库存还是缓慢累积目前市场硅锰情绪较为悲观3月钢招价格不及预期短期来看虽有边际拉动但中长期宽松的格局难以反制双硅预期跟随黑色情绪震荡产业链数据数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价75500硅铁2305结算价7770-74内蒙硅铁现价76000硅铁2309结算价7708-50期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价72500锰硅2305结算价7338-48内蒙锰硅现价73000锰硅2309结算价7260-34硅铁2305基差-22074硅铁9-1价差24-8硅铁2309基差-15850硅铁5-9价差62-24基差及价差锰硅2305基差-86-24锰硅9-1价差140锰硅2309基差6-20锰硅5-9价差78-14宁夏硅铁利润4325-12宁夏锰硅利润-31264750利润内蒙硅铁利润734572内蒙锰硅利润-196647532硅铁2305213万10万锰硅2305200万19万持仓情况硅铁230925万04万锰硅230915万02万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202021202051202081202111202141202171202241202261202291202321202331202011202031202041202061202071202091202121202131202151202161202181202191202211202221202231202251202271202281202311202011202041202091202151202171202211202231202261202281202321202021202031202051202061202071202081202111202121202131202141202161202181202191202221202241202251202271202291202311202331202110120221212020101202011120201212021111202112120221012022111202012120211012022111202010120201112021111202112120221012022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁09合约基差SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差8000700060006000500040004000300020002000100000-1000-2000-2000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰09合约基差SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差4000400035003000300025002000200015001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图9硅铁9-1价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925002000150010005000-500-1000-1500-2000916101611161216116216316416图11硅锰9-1价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23095001500400300100020010050000-100-200-500-300-400-1000117217317417517617717817917918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途