估值情况：上周油制利润上升，油制PE利润上升216元/吨至270元/吨，油制PP利润上升315元/吨至-30元/吨，PDH利润上涨974元/吨至-700元/吨，进口PE利润下降125元/吨至-255元/吨，进口PP利润下降67元/吨至-238元/吨。进口倒挂，利润不高，估值中性。
　　驱动情况：广东石化40万吨HD装置+80万吨全密度装置以及海南炼化30万吨HD装置+30万吨全密度共180万吨PE装置近期全部投产，广东石化50万吨PP+海南炼化50万吨PP新装置共100万吨装置已经正式投产，京博目前已在做开车准备，预计3月份40万吨装置先行投产。中化弘润45万吨PP装置已在外采丙烯计划开车，但是预计仅是试车短运行，整体新产能投放压力大。进口因为转出口以及外盘检修较多，2-4月进口量预计偏低。但近期检修显著增加，尤其是PP，上周周均检修比例14.85%，环比上升3.1个百分点，PE周均检修比例8.74%，环比增加1.3个百分点。加上近几周持续去库存，上周PP去库5万吨，PE去库3.4万吨，整体库存同期偏低。
　　操作建议：新产能释放压力，低库存高检修存在支撑，短期震荡偏空。

研究报告全文：银河期货聚烯烃周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年02月26日银河能化微信公众号主要观点估值情况上周油制利润上升油制PE利润上升216元吨至270元吨油制PP利润上升315元吨至-30元吨PDH利润上涨974元吨至-700元吨进口PE利润下降125元吨至-255元吨进口PP利润下降67元吨至-238元吨进口倒挂利润不高估值中性驱动情况广东石化40万吨HD装置80万吨全密度装置以及海南炼化30万吨HD装置30万吨全密度共180万吨PE装置近期全部投产广东石化50万吨PP海南炼化50万吨PP新装置共100万吨装置已经正式投产京博目前已在做开车准备预计3月份40万吨装置先行投产中化弘润45万吨PP装置已在外采丙烯计划开车但是预计仅是试车短运行整体新产能投放压力大进口因为转出口以及外盘检修较多2-4月进口量预计偏低但近期检修显著增加尤其是PP上周周均检修比例1485环比上升31个百分点PE周均检修比例874环比增加13个百分点加上近几周持续去库存上周PP去库5万吨PE去库34万吨整体库存同期偏低操作建议新产能释放压力低库存高检修存在支撑短期震荡偏空GALAXYFUTURES1PE概述项目基本面及变化上周PE去库存总库存去库34万吨至855万吨其中两油库存39万吨煤化工库存环比下降02万吨贸易商库存环比增加03万吨港口库存环比库存增加04万吨1月PE产量234万吨环比增长38同比增长28检修损失17万吨环比下降8万吨2月检修损失预估在157万吨环比下降08万吨上周PE产量检修有所增加周均检修比例874环比增加13个百分点新增产能方面海南炼化投产30万吨年HDPE产726030万吨年FDPE产7042广东石化炼化一体化项目投产40万吨年HDPE装置产726040万吨年全密度1线聚乙烯装置产832040万吨年全密度2线聚乙烯装置产7042N2022年12月PE进口量109万吨环比下降138同比增加04全年进口量1347万吨同比下降77进口依赖度由2021年的39下降至35上周美金报盘依然偏少报价维持坚挺进口窗口依然关闭因此上周美金成交量不多外盘供应方面由于新增检修及部分前期检修装置重启推迟中东2月份检修非常集中区域内产量损失高达50万吨月占产能的30尽管3月进出口份预计检修量环比减少但是目前中东供应商的报盘依然很有限东南亚市场因需求跟进不足价格开始走弱不过目前价格较中国仍有竞争力印度目前国内装置开工率依然偏低HPCLMittalEnergy的裂解装置开车不顺利下游目前为止尚未正常运行叠加国内需求尚可印度市场价格吸引力依然较强北美地区需求稳中向好台塑北美低压工厂因意外机械问题宣布不可抗力低压的供应依然偏紧且目前北美到南美欧洲及印度等地的出口利润高于中国因此近两周来自北美的报盘依然很少因前期的PE转口成交2月份的净进口量可能不及预期另外因中东及北美供应的减少以及中国市场价格依然是全球洼地预计3-4月份进口量将有明显下滑12022年12月PE消费335万吨环比下降34同比增长242022年全年PE消费3859万吨同比增长334需求2上周PE下游农膜开工上升3个百分点至41包装膜开工持稳60中空行业开工环比上升3个百分点至48管材行业开工上升4个百分点至46312月塑料制品出口金额为9482万亿美元环比增加28同比下降32022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长93利润上周煤价大幅上涨煤制利润下降400元吨至675元吨油制利润上涨216元吨至270元吨进口利润下降125元吨至-255元吨GALAXYFUTURES2PP概述项目基本面及变化上周PP去库存总库存降5万吨至497万吨其中两油库存去库34万吨煤化工去库08万吨贸易商去库06万吨港口去库01万吨当前PP库存同期库存偏低1月PP产量263万吨环比增加05同比增加691月检修损失量314万吨环比下降12万吨2月PP检修损失较预期显著增加检修损失量预估338万吨环比增加24万吨月度负荷893环比下降21个百分点上周PP检修明显增多周均检修比例1485环比上升31个百分点新增产能产量方面海南炼化乙烯项目裂解装置正常生产聚丙烯气相法20万吨年JPP装置产S1003环管法30万吨年STPP装置产T03中石油广东揭阳石化炼化一体化项目50万吨年PP装置产拉丝L5E89上周产品开售价格较低2022年12月PP进口量437万吨环比增加76同比增加142全年进口量451万吨同比下降6进口依赖度由2021年的138下降至126进口方面上周依然鲜有美金报盘一方面外盘供应收缩中国作为价格洼地难以吸引美金报盘另一方面目前进口依然倒挂国内贸易商接美金货的意愿不强因此美金成交寡淡一主流中东供应商对PP均聚报价在970美元吨对PP共聚报价在1000-1020美元吨上周PP均聚主流成交价格在950-960美元吨PP共聚主流成交价格在970-1000美元吨较上周持平进出口2022年12月PP出口量52万吨环比下降17同比下降622022年PP出口量127万吨同比下降86上周煤化工PP均聚出口报价在1020-1030美元吨油化工PP均聚出口报价在1040美元吨油制PP无纺布料出口报价在1050美元吨上周向东南亚及印度出口受阻但是向南美出口依然有成交总体目前中国依然是全球价格洼地出口机会虽有降温但依然存在12022年12月PP消费333万吨环比增长53同比增长932022年全年PP消费3587万吨同比增长332塑编塑编样本企业开工负荷54较上周提升4个百分点主要是部分上期低负荷的工厂开工提升企业新订单环比增加米袋订单良好部分工厂原料库存和成品库存均有下降后期会根据市场情况适机少量补库2BOPPBOPP企业开工负荷60环比上周下降2个百分点周内个别样本企业检修导致开工下滑上周成交阶段有量周二在原料上涨的刺激下需求接单好转其余时间回归清淡整体较上周相比接单增加BOPP企业未交付订单多数在5-10天个别交货期至3月下旬3注塑上周注塑样本企业开工负荷52较上周提升4百分点调研情况来看个别托盘周转箱企业订单略有好转日用品企业订单一般企业成品库存适中个别工厂偏高原料库存普遍在8-12天32022年12月塑料制品出口金额为9482万亿美元环比增加28同比下降32022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长93上周油制PP利润上涨315元吨至-31元吨PDH利润上涨974元吨至-700元吨煤制PP利润下降424元吨至635元吨进口利润下降67元吨至-238利润元吨GALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章PE主要数据5第二章PP主要数据22GALAXYFUTURES4PE产业链价格分类名称2023022420230217上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅分类名称2023022420230217上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅布伦特现货价82082410040-038-18-1831油制PE利润269531229215540583-9607-7815原油布伦特主8298329650-036-14-1415CTO利润67510741854-3990-3717-11794-6362WTI主7657669160-014-15-1655LL进口利润含税-255-130-416-124795781611-3874CFR日本70772058881-14-187-181-2039LL进口利润免税-2297-166-1191-122501441-8682石脑油FOB鹿特丹705730847-255-349-1420-1677利润LDPE进口利润-277-297-595205-6893182-5348煤坑口煤价83075071280107118166HD薄膜进口利润-280-461-6561812-39273756-5728江苏出罐ICIS275752712528175450166-600-213HD中空进口利润-256-363-3411072-2949851-2494甲醇CFR中国ICIS29352935333500-40-1199HD注塑进口利润-223-373-3651499-40171419-3886甲醇主力2671256028251110434-154-545HD拉丝进口利润-195-254-753585-23085582-7410CFR东北亚9419111221300329-280-2293LLDCFR中国10109901180200202-1700-1441CFR东南亚9518911191600673-240-2015LD薄膜CFR中国107010701527500-4575-2995乙烯FD美国海湾美分磅222339-13-537-17-4285HD中空CFR中国94259425110500-1625-1471FD西北欧欧元吨9149281049-135-146-135-1283PECFR中国HD薄膜CFR中国101010001190100100-1800-1513L01822381288690950117-467-537HD注塑低熔指CFR中国930930107000-1400-1308L058335822087991150140-464-527HD注塑高熔指CFR中国975975111000-1350-1216L098275817087181050129-443-508HD注塑不分熔指CFR中国95259525109500-1425-1301PE华北LLD820081508670500061-470-542LLDCFR东南亚10711071129100-2200-1704LD华北880088001130000-25000-2212LLDFOB中东976976121100-2350-1941PE价格HD膜810080508650500062-5500-636LLDFD西北欧12211221160100-3800-2374HD中空780078508300-500-064-5000-602LLDFAS休斯顿10591059143400-3750-2615HD拉丝802080308350-100-012-3300-395LDCFR东南亚11311131163100-5000-3066HD管材830082259100750091-8000-879LDFOB中东10761076154100-4650-3018HD注塑低熔78007800825000-4500-545LDFD西北欧13211321175100-4300-2456L01基差-2322-20-450-20455-301500LDFAS休斯顿11251125147800-3530-2388L05基差-135-70-129-6509286-60465HD膜CFR东南亚10611061129100-2300-1782L09基差-75-20-48-55027500-2705625PE外盘价格HD膜FOB中东986986121100-2250-1858基差月差L1-5价差-112-92-109-2002173913-300275229HD膜FD西北欧17391739215000-4110-1912L5-9价差6050811002000-210-2593HD膜FAS休斯顿10811081130200-2210-1697L9-1价差52422810023812408571HD中空CFR东南亚10311031123100-2000-1625LD-LLD6006502630-500-769-20300-7719HD中空CFR东南亚10311031123100-2000-1625HD膜-LLD膜-100-100-2000-80040000HD中空FD西北欧16961696209400-3980-1901HD中空-LLD膜-400-300-370-10003333-300811HD中空FAS休斯敦10151015134600-3310-2459HD拉丝-LLD膜-180-120-320-60050001400-4375HD注塑CFR东南亚102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