估值：进口倒挂，利润压缩，低库存，估值偏低。
　　驱动：上周PP去库存，总库存降4.3万吨至54.7万吨，PE去库存，总库存环比下降3.1万吨至88.88万吨，聚烯烃当前库存同期低位。新产能方面，广东石化炼化一体化全流程打通，50万吨PP装置产出合格拉丝，40万吨HD装置投产，80万吨全密度装置即将投产。海南炼化30万吨PP开车，另外20万吨待开车。但进口转出口还在继续，进口减少对冲部分新产能增量。
　　观点：进口减量部分对冲新产能增量，低库存且去库，逢低做多。

研究报告全文：银河期货聚烯烃周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年02月19日银河能化微信公众号主要观点估值进口倒挂利润压缩低库存估值偏低驱动上周PP去库存总库存降43万吨至547万吨PE去库存总库存环比下降31万吨至8888万吨聚烯烃当前库存同期低位新产能方面广东石化炼化一体化全流程打通50万吨PP装置产出合格拉丝40万吨HD装置投产80万吨全密度装置即将投产海南炼化30万吨PP开车另外20万吨待开车但进口转出口还在继续进口减少对冲部分新产能增量观点进口减量部分对冲新产能增量低库存且去库逢低做多GALAXYFUTURES1PE概述项目基本面及变化上周PE去库存总库存环比下降31万吨至8888万吨其中两油库存环比下降15万吨煤化工库存环比下降06万吨贸易商库存环比下降库存09万吨港口库存环比下降01万吨当前库存同期低位1月PE产量234万吨环比增长38同比增长28检修损失17万吨环比下降8万吨2月检修损失预估在143万吨环比下降27万吨产量周内检修变动不大本周日均检修比例738环比上升02个百分点广东石化炼化一体化全流程打通40万吨年HDPE装置产72602套40万吨年全密度聚乙烯装置尚未出2022年12月PE进口量109万吨环比下降138同比增加04全年进口量1347万吨同比下降77进口依赖度由2021年的39下降至35本周美金报盘依然较少报价依然坚挺目前进口窗口关闭本周美金成交量较少外盘供应方面由于新增检修及部分前期检修装置重启推迟中东2月份检修非常集中区域内产量损失高达50万吨月占产能的30因此近期中东供应商报盘及配售额都非常有限东南亚市场因需求跟进不足价格开始走弱不过目前价格较中国仍有竞争力印度目前国内进出口装置开工率依然偏低HPCLMittalEnergy的裂解装置开车不顺下游目前为止尚未正常运行叠加国内需求较好印度市场价格吸引力依然较强北美地区因前期供应问题1-2月份出口量预计下滑虽然目前供应逐步恢复但是当地需求尚可叠加目前向南美东南亚印度等地的出口回报率更高因此近期北美向中国的供应量还难有提升总体而言尽管热度有所下降但PE转口成交仍在持续因此2月份的净进口量可能不及预期另外因中东及北美供应的减少以及中国市场价格为全球洼地预计3-4月份进口量将有明显下滑12022年12月PE消费335万吨环比下降34同比增长242022年全年PE消费3859万吨同比增长334需求2上周农膜开工上涨5个百分点至38单丝上涨2个百分点至42中空开工上涨6个百分点至45管材开工上涨4个百分点至42目前下游各行业主流开工在38-60312月塑料制品出口金额为9482万亿美元环比增加28同比下降32022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长93利润上周油制PE利润下降155元吨至53元吨进口利润下降42元吨至-130元吨GALAXYFUTURES2PP概述项目基本面及变化上周PP去库存总库存降43万吨至547万吨其中两油去库13万吨煤化工去库32万吨贸易商累库02万吨港口库存与上周持平当前PP库存同期库存低位1月PP产量263万吨环比增加05同比增加691月检修损失量314万吨环比下降12万吨2月检修损失预估在21万吨1月下降10万吨左右周内检修明显增加日均检修比例1179环比上升2个百分点中石油广东石化炼化一体化项目目前已顺利打通50万吨年PP装置产出合格聚丙烯拉产量丝L5E892月20日开售海南炼化乙烯项目20万吨年气相法聚丙烯装置于2022年12月20日一次开车成功30万吨年环管法装置于2022年12月28日一次试车成功目前裂解装置已投料30万吨环管法装置暂未出合格品20万吨气相法装置投料试车2022年12月PP进口量437万吨环比增加76同比增加142全年进口量451万吨同比下降6进口依赖度由2021年的138下降至126进口方面本周依然鲜有美金报盘一方面外盘供应收缩中国作为价格洼地难以吸引美金报盘另一方面目前进口依然倒挂国内贸易商接美金货的意愿不强因此美金成交清淡进出口2022年12月PP出口量52万吨环比下降17同比下降622022年PP出口量127万吨同比下降86本周PP均聚出口及转口报价维持在1030-1050美元吨FOB中国主港由于东南亚及印度市场走弱本周向东南亚及印度出口及转口成交开始困难然而来自南美及非洲的询盘依然积极实际出口及转口成交尚可总体外盘供应偏紧目前中国依然是全球价格洼地出口机会虽有降温但依然存在12022年12月PP消费333万吨环比增长53同比增长932022年全年PP消费3587万吨同比增长332塑编上周塑编样本企业开工负荷50较上周提升3个百分点大厂开工均达到6-7成个别8成周内新订单环比增加但普遍反应节奏偏缓部分企业原料库存充裕少部分库存略低企业刚需补货为主河南浙江一带企业成品库存适中压力一般山东个别企业成品库存略高BOPPBOPP样本企业开工负荷已提升至62较上周提升8个百分点周内新订单整体接单节奏欠佳接单量仍在低位企业未交付订单多在7-15需求天目前样本企业原料库存普遍在10-15天企业备货积极性一般灵活补货为主注塑本周注塑样本企业开工负荷48较上周修正值提升2个百分点企业反馈订单一般仍在观望尤其小厂订单不足对后市信心一般原料库存来看多数企业原料库存在8-15天部分大厂库存充裕32022年12月塑料制品出口金额为9482万亿美元环比增加28同比下降32022年塑料制品出口金额10781万亿美元同比增长93利润上周油制PP利润下降205元吨至-350元吨PDH利润上涨243元吨至-1674元吨进口利润下降12元吨至-170元吨GALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章PE主要数据5第二章PP主要数据22GALAXYFUTURES4PE产业链价格分类名称2023021720230210上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅分类名称2023021720230210上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅布伦特现货价824857978-3-389-15-1579油制PE利润532081453-1553-7452-14001-9635原油布伦特主832865935-3-390-10-1107CTO利润10741791919895050140-8454-4406WTI主766798921-3-401-16-1687LL进口利润含税-130-88-324-42348211939-5983CFR日本72171418663609-146-1683LL进口利润免税97137-75-398-29031718-23037石脑油FOB鹿特丹730709858215303-1280-1492利润LDPE进口利润-297-22057-7773537-3544-62107煤坑口煤价750900715-150-16673549HD薄膜进口利润-461-341-324-12023525-13734239江苏出罐ICIS27125270752747550018-350-127HD中空进口利润-363-281-57-8242934-305953241甲醇CFR中国ICIS293529853285-50-168-35-1065HD注塑进口利润-373-283-81-9063205-292136017甲醇主力256025982750-380-146-190-691HD拉丝进口利润-254-174-523-79345482689-5146CFR东北亚9118761211350400-300-2477LLDCFR中国990990117500-1850-1574CFR东南亚8918811191100114-300-2519LD薄膜CFR中国107010801505-100-093-4350-2890乙烯FD美国海湾美分磅23223815689-15-3840HD中空CFR中国94259425109500-1525-1393FD西北欧欧元吨9289551280-270-283-352-2751PECFR中国HD薄膜CFR中国10009851180150152-1800-1525L01812880908754380047-626-715HD注塑低熔指CFR中国930930105500-1250-1185L05822081428876780096-656-739HD注塑高熔指CFR中国975975109500-1200-1096L09817081048799660081-629-715HD注塑不分熔指CFR中国95259525108000-1275-1181PE华北LLD815081008700500062-550-632LLDCFR东南亚10611061128100-2200-1717LD华北880088001150000-27000-2348LLDFOB中东986986120100-2150-1790PE价格HD膜805081508650-1000-123-6000-694LLDFD西北欧12211221160100-3800-2374HD中空78507850835000-5000-599LLDFAS休斯顿10591059143400-3750-2615HD拉丝803080008400300038-3700-440LDCFR东南亚11311131159100-4600-2891HD管材822582509125-250-030-9000-986LDFOB中东10761076153100-4550-2972HD注塑低熔780077508300500065-5000-602LDFD西北欧13011301173100-4300-2484L01基差2210-5412012000760-14074LDFAS休斯顿11251125147800-3530-2388L05基差-70-42-176-28066671060-6023HD膜CFR东南亚10511051127100-2200-1731L09基差-20-4-99-16040000790-7980HD膜FOB中东996996120100-2050-1707基差月差PE外盘价格L1-5价差-92-52-122-40076923076930-02459016HD膜FD西北欧17461746213700-3910-1830L5-9价差5038771203158-270-3506HD膜FAS休斯顿10811081132400-2430-1835L9-1价差42144528020000-30-667HD中空CFR东南亚10311031123100-2000-1625LD-LLD6507002800-500-714-21500-7679HD中空CFR东南亚10311031123100-2000-1625HD膜-LLD膜-10050-50-1500-30000-50010000HD中空FD西北欧17031703208000-3770-1813HD中空-LLD膜-300-250-350-5002000500-1429HD中空FAS休斯敦10151015136800-3530-2580HD拉丝-LLD膜-120-100-300-20020001800-6000HD注塑CFR东南亚10211021114100-1200-1052非标价差HD管材-LLD膜75150425-750-5000-3500-8235HD注塑FD西北欧17031703208000-3770-1813HD注塑-LLD膜-350-350-40000500-1250HD注塑FAS休斯敦993993132400-3310-2500PE回料含税68906890694400-543-078L-PP现货4504303502001000PE新料-回料126012101756500413-4958-2823L-PP01294305372-110-780L-PPL-PP05350308406420-560L-PP09323282379410-560资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES5PE利润PE成本20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