五矿期货-农产品期权周报-230227

>> 五矿期货-农产品期权周报-230227

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研究报告全文：农产品期权周报期权研究2023年2月27日星期一基本面信息豆粕上周国内111家油厂大豆压榨量预计为17022万吨开机率为572预计本周为15728万吨开机率为52852023年第7周全国主要油厂大豆库存为49018万吨较上周减少5794万吨豆粕库存为6175万吨较上周增加126万吨菜粕库存18万吨较上周减少008万吨大豆截止2月24日广东进口大豆压榨利润为212元吨仍处近五年偏低水平广东进口菜籽加工利润为497元吨短期小幅回落但仍处近年中等偏高水平卢品先棕榈油MPOA数据显示1-20日马棕产量预计减671ITS数据显示1-20日棕榈油出口量为7841万吨环比增加3306从高频数据来看产量减少出口增加一定程度利多马棕对印尼而言暂停出口许可上调指导价投研经理B35计划及斋月带来的季节性需求好转支撑马棕价格0755-23375252lupxwkqhcn期权行情概要从业资格号标的行情农产品玉米上周反弹上升受阻回落形成下方有支撑上方有压力的区间盘整豆粕维持一个多月以来偏多头趋势方向上的高位宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡而中期趋势方向仍向上棕榈油止跌反弹回暖上升后连续近两F3047321周以来沿着偏多头趋势方向突破上行白糖延续近三周以来多头趋势方向上的高位宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡上周以来交易咨询号突破上涨后快速回落棉花高位回落后延续近一个月以来的偏空头弱势下行截止收盘玉米C2305周涨幅031报Z0015541收于2858豆粕M2305合约周涨幅000报收于3832棕榈油P2305周涨幅291报收于8318白糖SR305周涨幅096报收于5915棉花CF305周涨幅076报收于14235日均成交量上周农产品期权日均成交量除棕榈油期权大幅度增加棉花期权期权大幅减少其他农产品期权日均成交量小幅变化其中玉米期权增加079万张至594万张豆粕期权减少042万张至934万张棕榈油期权增加210万张至1008万张白糖期权增加010万张至870万张棉花期权减少340万张至890万张日均持仓量上周农产品期权日均持仓量普遍大幅度增加而菜籽粕期权日均持仓量增加幅度不大其中玉米期权291万张至3279万张豆粕期权增加306万张至3867万张棕榈油期权增加206万张至1337万张白糖期权增加195万张至2328万张棉花期权增加204万张至2948万张隐含波动率上周农产品期权隐含波动率玉米期权棉花期权和白糖期权隐含波动率窄幅波动而豆粕期权和棕榈油隐含波动率持续小幅下降截止上周五收盘玉米期权隐含波动率报收于932豆粕期权隐含波动率报收于1500棕榈油期权隐含波动率报收于1891白糖期权隐含波动率报收于1076棉花期权隐含波动率报收于1847成交量PCR期权的成交量PCR是站在期权的买方角度看待市场的表现表示的是市场情绪指标一般认为成交量PCR越大投资者情绪越悲观成交量PCR越小投资者情绪越乐观玉米期权成交量PCR报收于141豆粕期权成交量PCR报收于134棕榈油期权成交量PCR报收于095白糖期权成交量PCR报收于047棉花期权成交量PCR小幅盘整报收于082持仓量PCR一般认为期权的持仓量PCR为100时是多头和空头的分界线玉米期权持仓量PCR持续大幅度上升报收于108豆粕期权持仓量PCR小幅下降维持较高水平报收于173棕榈油期权持仓量PCR较低水平窄幅波动报收于063白糖期权持仓量PCR持续下降报收于077棉花期权持仓量PCR快速下降报收于060结论与操作建议1棉花期权棉花CF305空头压力线下弱势盘整震荡上周以来上升受阻回落逐渐下行棉花期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR快速下降维持较低水平操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如CF2305SCF2305P14000SCF2305P14200和SCF2305C14400SCF2305C142002白糖期权白糖SR2305上周突破区间上限后快速回落延续偏多头趋势方向上盘整震荡期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR持续上升操作建议构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情极速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如SR305SSR305P580010SSR305P590010和SSR305C600010SSR305C5900103棕榈油期权棕榈油P2305止跌反弹回暖上升后延续近两周以来的多头上涨趋势连续两周涨幅超过3市场表现为短期多头情绪较浓期权隐含波动率持续下降回落持仓量PCR维持至较低水平操作建议构建卖出偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如P2305SP2305-P-820010SP2305-P-830010和SP2305-C-840010SP2305-C-8500104玉米期权玉米C2305上周上升受阻回落上涨幅度收窄而上方有前期高点压力形成上方有空头压力的短期偏多头市场行情格局期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR小幅回落操作建议构建卖出偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如C2305SC2305-P-284010SC2305-P-282010和SC2305-C-288010SC2305-C-286010周市场行情概要期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅周日均成交量万增减上周日均持仓量万增减CC23052858-100003120383106791904MM230538324000005793-163113012013PP230583181320029162180545235533SRSR2305591525000962134-1074445-054CFCF23051423565000324236-5227096-059RMRM23053161-11000764422-11074898058数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部期权总成交与持仓周日均成交量周日均持仓量期权品种CallPut合计变化PCRCallPut合计变化PCRC294732992059393794610215031617755532787129089118M439504943893388-415611214382624283938666530550169P587334209110082421019072786305507813370820604070SR48141388678700899108113157010125923282919545077CF524533652888981-3397207017612911867129480020449067RM14399172893168962531203110542008731146980135数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部日市场行情概要主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日C23052860385031502867500017900302023-04-10M2305385081007250385916000422650302023-04-10P2305830030100251008350146001783200302023-04-10SR23055900113004500596815500265300282023-04-06CF230514200356002700014286-14800-1035100282023-04-06RM2305315097005550319212000383050282023-04-06数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWC2305871976932-00110731219927M2305151714881500-079168318161551P2305195217791891-110216623032029SR230511159931076046110311761030CF2305197416921847-016192920021857RM2305183018811860-073208022501910数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化C23051789125245141029137486148074108-002M23054169855875134014134340232111173001P230521068200500950256082138415063-001SR23053344415728047-0199370672133077-002CF2305469133841708200515590794287060-001RM23058648118341370152806837617134-003数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1玉米主力合约走势图300060成交量万收盘价28670029005040280030270020260010250002023-01-162023-02-032022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-192023-01-312023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-24图2豆粕主力合约走势图4400200成交量万收盘价420015040003859001003800503600340002022-10-312023-02-032023-02-082022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-24图3白糖主力合约走势图610050成交量万收盘价59660060004059005800305700205600105500540002022-10-102023-01-062022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-24图4棉花主力合约走势图16000100成交量万收盘价150001428500801400060130004012000201100002022-08-162022-09-202022-12-232023-02-032022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-24图5菜粕主力合约走势图3800120成交量万收盘价36001003400319200803200603000402800260020240002022-08-192022-11-292023-02-242022-08-162022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-21图6棕榈油主力合约走势图10000140成交量万收盘价95001209000100850080800060750040700020650002022-09-152022-11-162023-01-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-24数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部玉米期权持仓分布玉米期权持仓分布图玉米期权持仓变化图250003000250020000200015001500010005001000005000-500-10000-1500OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC玉米期权最大未平仓玉米认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价3200310030002900280027002600250024002022-09-012022-10-132022-11-162022-12-202022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-24玉米期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓玉米期权持仓量PCR玉米期权隐含波动率2003100OIPCR20180CLOSE3000160290016140280028670012027001210026000802500806024002022-11-302022-08-162022-08-252022-09-052022-09-152022-09-262022-10-122022-10-212022-11-012022-11-102022-11-212022-12-092022-12-202022-12-292023-01-102023-01-192023-02-062023-02-152023-02-242022-11-102023-02-062022-08-262022-09-072022-09-202022-09-302022-10-192022-10-312022-11-222022-12-022022-12-142022-12-262023-01-062023-01-182023-02-162022-08-16IMPVMA20UPLOW豆粕期权持仓分布豆粕期权持仓分布图豆粕期权持仓变化图350004000350030000300025000250020000200015001500010001000050005000-5000-100027502850295030503150325033503450355036503750385039504050415042504350445045503250275028502950305031503350345035503650375038503950405041504250435044504550OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC豆粕期权最大未平仓豆粕认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价4800440040003600320028002022-10-182023-01-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-24豆粕期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓豆粕期权持仓量PCR豆粕期权隐含波动率3404400OIPCR35CLOSE2904200302403859002540001902038001401509036001004034002022-11-302022-08-162022-08-252022-09-052022-09-152022-09-262022-10-122022-10-212022-11-012022-11-102022-11-212022-12-092022-12-202022-12-292023-01-102023-01-192023-02-062023-02-152023-02-242022-11-102023-02-062022-08-262022-09-072022-09-202022-09-302022-10-192022-10-312022-11-222022-12-022022-12-142022-12-262023-01-062023-01-182023-02-162022-08-16IMPVMA20UPLOW白糖期权持仓分布白糖期权持仓分布图白糖期权持仓变化图2500060040020000200150000-20010000-400-6005000-8000-10006400480050005200540056005800600062006600680048005000520054005600580060006200640066006800OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC白糖期权最大未平仓白糖认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价6800660064006200600058005600540052002022-10-262022-11-162023-02-132022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-162023-02-212023-02-24白糖期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓白糖期权持仓量PCR白糖期权隐含波动率5966001006000OIPCR20090CLOSE59000805800070150605700050560004055001003002054002022-09-052022-08-162022-08-252022-09-152022-09-262022-10-122022-10-212022-11-0120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