15日双硅盘面宽幅震荡，尾盘收涨，天津港锰矿报价持稳，宁夏地区上周电价上调0.03元/吨后持稳，兰炭价格加速下跌至1155元/吨，硅铁成本线下行，利润区间扩大，硅锰较为稳定。二月份招钢量公布，短期双硅边际需求较高，供应端虽有增量但无法覆盖，整体基本面略紧，但中期很快又会继续回归宽松局面。兰炭超预期下行对厂家需求还未得到解放，有超量采购得可能性。双硅盘面下方存在空间，尤其是硅铁，整体随黑色波动可能性较大。操作上建议区间操作，不建议追空。

研究报告全文：铁合金数据日报2023216品种日内观点15日双硅盘面宽幅震荡尾盘收涨天津港锰矿报价持稳宁夏地区上周电价上调003元吨后持稳兰硅铁炭价格加速下跌至1155元吨硅铁成本线下行利润区间扩大硅锰较为稳定二月份招钢量公布短期双硅边际需求较高供应端虽有增量但无法覆盖整体基本面略紧但中期很快又会继续回归宽松局面兰炭超预期下行对厂家需求还未得到解放有超量采购得可能性双硅盘面下方存在空间尤其是硅锰硅铁整体随黑色波动可能性较大操作上建议区间操作不建议追空产业链数据项目数据环比项目数据环比宁夏硅铁现价77000硅铁2305结算价790644内蒙硅铁现价80000硅铁2309结算价782046期现货市场宁夏锰硅现价72500锰硅2305结算价748236内蒙锰硅现价73000锰硅2309结算价738626硅铁2305基差-206-44硅铁9-1价差1810硅铁2309基差-120-46硅铁5-9价差86-2基差及价差锰硅2305基差-182-36锰硅9-1价差410锰硅2309基差-86-26锰硅5-9价差9610宁夏硅铁利润6405115宁夏锰硅利润-5033130利润内蒙硅铁利润11085115内蒙锰硅利润-359313-20硅铁2305200万02万锰硅2305171万-07万持仓情况硅铁230909万00万锰硅230907万00万主要图表图1硅铁现货价格元吨图2硅锰现货价格元吨宁夏硅铁内蒙硅铁宁夏硅锰内蒙硅锰190001500017000130001500013000110001100090009000700070005000500030003000202031202071202081202131202141202171202181202231202241202281202311202011202021202041202051202061202091202111202121202151202161202191202211202221202251202261202271202291202321202011202051202091202121202151202161202221202251202261202021202031202041202061202071202081202111202131202141202171202181202191202211202231202241202271202281202291202311202321202012120211212022121202010120201112021101202111120221012022111202110120221012020101202011120201212021111202112120221112022121图3硅铁现货利润元吨图4硅锰现货利润元吨宁夏虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润内蒙虚拟利润宁夏虚拟利润140001500120001000100005008000600004000-5002000-10000-2000201913202013202113202213202313图5硅铁05合约基差图6硅铁09合约基差SF2009基差SF2109基差SF2209基差SF2309基差SF2005基差SF2005基差SF2105基差SF2205基差8000700060006000500040004000300020002000100000-1000-2000-2000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图7硅锰05合约基差图8硅锰09合约基差SM2009基差SM2109基差SM2209基差SM2309基差SM2005基差SM2105基差SM2205基差SM2305基差4000400035003000300025002000200015001000100050000-500-1000-1000516616716816916101611161216116216316416916101611161216116216316416516616716816图9硅铁9-1价差图10硅铁5-9价差SF2005-SF2009SF2105-SF2109SF2205-SF2209SF2305-SF230925002000150010005000-500-1000-1500-2000916101611161216116216316416图11硅锰9-1价差图12硅锰5-9价差SM2009-SM2101SM2109-SM2201SM2209-SM2301SM2309-SM2401SM2005-SM2009SM2105-SM2109SM2205-SM2209SM2305-SM23095001500400300100020010050000-100-200-500-300-400-1000117217317417517617717817917918101811181218118218318418免责声明本报告由东吴期货研究所制作及发布报告是基于本公司认为可靠的且目前已公开的信息撰写本公司力求但不保证该信息的准确性和完整性所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议投资者需自行承担风险未经本公司事先书面授权不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用删节修改及用于其它用途