塑料和PP存量装置检修较少，开工相对较高，新产能方面，一季度PP和PE均有近200万吨的新产能投放。进口前期成交的远洋货较多，年后陆续到港，进口边际回升。需求方面，临近春节，下游陆续放假，制品开工环比下降。当前PPPE利润均已显著回升，估值不低，短期价格震荡偏空。

研究报告全文：银河期货聚烯烃周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年01月09日银河能化微信公众号主要观点塑料和PP存量装置检修较少开工相对较高新产能方面一季度PP和PE均有近200万吨的新产能投放进口前期成交的远洋货较多年后陆续到港进口边际回升需求方面临近春节下游陆续放假制品开工环比下降当前PPPE利润均已显著回升估值不低短期价格震荡偏空GALAXYFUTURES1PE概述项目基本面及变化上周PE累库存总库存增加3万吨至73万吨其中两油累库23万吨煤化工库存环比增加1万吨贸易商累库02万吨库存港口去库05万吨12月PE产量2258万吨环比增加11同比增加56累计同比增长112023年1月检修损失预估162万吨环比产量下降9万吨上周PE负荷954环比上升08个百分点一季度新增产能预计是海南炼化30HD30全密度和揭阳石化40HD80全密度11月PE进口量1267万吨环比增加111同比增加781-11月PE进口量累计1237万吨同比下降83美金报价稳中小幅上调进口窗口依然打开因此美金货仍具吸引力但是美金报盘量及配售额依然不多特别是中东供应商进出口由于检修集中以及前期抛售较多近期销售压力普遍较小并且上周依然缺少美国货报盘因此整体美金成交量有限总体外盘目前整体压力不大但是前期成交的远洋货较多预计年后陆续到港因此2-3月份进口量将环比回升但幅度预计较为温和111月PE消费3454万吨环比增长19同比增长49累计同比增长342上周PE下游制品开工环比普遍下降农膜行业开工环比下降2个百分点至44包装膜开工环比下降6个百分点至需求52中空行业开工环比下降2个百分点至46管材行业开工环比下降2个百分点至38311月塑料制品出口量922亿美元同比下降41累计同比增长102期现价差上周塑料震荡走弱主力周度下跌157华北现货周度持稳主力基差上涨128至69利润上周油制利润上涨380元吨至523元吨煤制利润上涨120元吨至-54元吨进口利润下降150元吨至-21元吨GALAXYFUTURES2PP概述项目基本面及变化库存上周PP累库存总库存增加24万吨至376万吨其中两油累库21万吨煤化工累库06万吨贸易商去库03万吨港口库存环比持平12月PP产量2635万吨环比增加39同比增加7累计同比增加492023年1月PP检修损失预估248万吨环比减少75万吨上产量周PP负荷931环比上升03个百分点新产能方面Q1揭阳石化50万吨海南炼化60万吨中化弘润45万吨预计投放11月PP进口量406万吨环比下降5同比下降911-11月PP进口量407万吨同比下降78由于前期供应商抛售集中以及一季度检修集中目前多数供应商并没有销售压力因此上周美金报盘稀少美金成交量较少不过前期大量成交的低价远洋货预计将于2-3月份集中到港届时将对国内市场产生不小的压力进出口11月PP出口量63万吨环比增加206同比下降409累计出口122万吨同比下降28上周煤制PP均聚出口报价在980美元吨油制及PDH制PP均聚出口报价在1000-1010美元吨近期印度市场有所回暖中国出口印度基本能够做平并且由于关税优势中国PP目前在印尼市场也较中东供应商具备一定竞争力另外上周来自非洲的PP均聚注塑拉丝等询盘季节性增加整体PP出口市场开始有一定起色111月PP消费量335万吨环比下降21同比增长45累计同比增长28需求2上周BOPP行业开工环比下降2个百分点至53注塑行业开工环比下降1个百分点至45塑编行业开工持稳39311月塑料制品出口量922亿美元同比下降41累计同比增长102期现价差上周PP震荡走弱主力合约周度收跌137华东现货周度收跌144主力基差上涨20至-165上周油制PP利润上涨330元吨至23元吨PDH利润上涨44元吨至-450元吨煤制PP利润上涨105元吨至-204元吨进口利润下降利润92元吨至-2元吨GALAXYFUTURES3目录第一章PE主要数据5第二章PP主要数据22GALAXYFUTURES4PE产业链价格分类名称2023010620221230上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅分类名称2023010620221230上年同期周涨跌周涨跌幅年涨跌年涨跌幅布伦特现货价775814792-4-486-2-222油制PE利润5231421999380426729-14764-7385原油布伦特主786860802-7-859-2-195CTO利润-54-17422441200-6916-22970-10238WTI主737805772-7-842-3-451LL进口利润含税-21128-233-1490-116852118-9079CFR日本63064507261-15-229-96-1320LL进口利润免税20034911-1490-42721890174953石脑油FOB鹿特丹NA618734NANANANA利润LDPE进口利润-2650823-760-15254-8489-10318煤坑口煤价940965638-25-259302473HD薄膜进口利润-78-55147-2304215-2251-15274江苏出罐ICIS265526802610-250-093450172HD中空进口利润2972209-428-5957-1803-8614甲醇CFR中国ICIS281526853035130484-22-725HD注塑进口利润-88-144-114564-3903259-2274甲醇主力263226532634-210-079-2-008HD拉丝进口利润163104-53159056656942-13072CFR东北亚8518711021-200-230-170-1665LLDCFR中国9609501145100105-1850-1616CFR东南亚NA911966NANANANALD薄膜CFR中国10351030146050049-4250-2911乙烯FD美国海湾美分磅NA2041NANANANAHD中空CFR中国885885107000-1850-1729FD西北欧欧元吨NA7891307NANANANAPECFR中国HD薄膜CFR中国935935114000-2050-1798L01803481468809-1120-137-775-880HD注塑低熔指CFR中国8858851027500-1425-1387L05803181598759-1280-157-728-831HD注塑高熔指CFR中国9159151062500-1475-1388L09801181308661-1190-146-650-750HD注塑不分熔指CFR中国90091510425-150-164-1425-1367PE华北LLD81008100865000-550-636LLDCFR东南亚9919811191100102-2000-1679LD华北8600865011600-500-058-30000-2586LLDFOB中东9669561114100105-1480-1329PE价格HD膜800080508650-500-062-6500-751LLDFD西北欧125112561551-50-040-3000-1934HD中空790079508450-500-063-5500-651LLDFAS休斯顿905905140100-4960-3540HD拉丝795080308230-800-100-2800-340LDCFR东南亚10811081147600-3950-2676HD管材820083258775-1250-150-5750-655LDFOB中东103610261404100097-3680-2621HD注塑低熔76007600810000-5000-617LDFD西北欧137613811781-50-036-4050-2274L01基差66-46-1591120-243482250-14151LDFAS休斯顿993993146700-4740-3231L05基差69-59-1091280-216951780-16330HD膜CFR东南亚9819711201100103-2200-1832L09基差89-30-111190-396671000-90909PE外盘价格HD膜FOB中东9569461104100106-1480-1341基差月差L1-5价差3-1350160-12308-470-9400HD膜FD西北欧183618372200-10-005-3640-1655L5-9价差202998-90-3103-780-7959HD膜FAS休斯顿905905143400-5290-3689L9-1价差-23-16-148-7043751250-8446HD中空CFR东南亚961961120100-2400-1998LD-LLD5005502950-500-909-24500-8305HD中空CFR东南亚961961120100-2400-1998HD膜-LLD膜-100-500-50010000-1000DIV0HD中空FD西北欧17941794214300-3490-1629HD中空-LLD膜-200-150-200-500333300HD中空FAS休斯敦883883142300-5400-3795HD拉丝-LLD膜-150-70-420-800114292700-6429HD注塑CFR东南亚941941112100-1800-1606非标价差HD管材-LLD膜1701451752501724-50-286HD注塑FD西北欧17941794214300-3490-1629HD注塑-LLD膜-500-500-55000500-909HD注塑FAS休斯敦905905144500-5400-3737PE回料含税68906890694400-543-078L-PP现货5704604801100900PE新料-回料12101210170600-4958-2906L-PP01379363529160-1500L-PPL-PP0533633438920-530L-PP09318330355-120-370资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES5PE利润PE成本202316830012000820482001000081118100810080318000800060007890790040007777200078007700202014202034202054202074202094202114202134202154202174202194202214202234202254202274202294202011420211147600油制成本CTO成本进口成本免税7500进口成本含税L主力L现货油制成本CTO成本进口成本免税进口成本含税L主力L现货油制PE利润煤制PE利润45001000035008000250060004000150020005000-2000500-40001500-600011213141516171819110111112125001121314151617181911011111212011201220132014201520162017201820192020201820192020202120222023202120222023资料来源卓创ICISwind隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES6PE利润缠绕膜利润LL进口利润PE新料-回料35001000350030008003000600250040020002500200150014815200001000200500150040001000600-500-5175800-100050010001121314151617181911011111210120011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120152016201720182019201820192020202120222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